Treckasec Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 13 minutes ago, yoda said: What would you call the TABS model track? A loop-de-loop-de-loop-de-loop-de-loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 00z GFS Hurricane Maria recurves... Jose stays around through Day 8 lol... looks to cause the WAR to weaken so that Maria escapes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z GFS Hurricane Maria recurves... Jose stays around through Day 8 lol... looks to cause the WAR to weaken so that Maria escapes Seems to be a closer miss than the previous run though, doesn't it? And how likely is this scenario? I'm hearing folks expressing doubt that Jose could stay there that long, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 00z GGEM has Maria chilling in the Central Bahamas at 144... makes landfall near CHS at 198... then dies out in the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Ends up a SC landfall around ~192. Posting the image so others can see. Yeah but we get just rain from Maria... no real wind... it moves slowly and gets into NC by 228 and then moves NE back out into the ATL by 240 near OBX as the SLP never gets into VA at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Euro quite GFS-like. Jose boots Maria ots then meanders ashore here as an extremely weak system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 It does seem sorta fitting that Jose ruins things for Maria after teasing the F out of us. If it goes down like that I'm personally retiring Jose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It does seem sorta fitting that Jose ruins things for Maria after teasing the F out of us. If it goes down like that I'm personally retiring Jose This may be one of those "wasn't meant to be" kind of scenarios...Disappointing for weather geeks, yet a relief for others. For us, it would be especislly disappointing if Maria gets totally juiced and have Cat 3 or 4 potential...only to get booted out by a system that brings a few sprinkles. Mercy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Jose's that guy that the bar we all hated in our college years. A real jerk to begin with, but then chases the ladies away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 12z GFS showing a solution with Jose out of the way so that's interesting. However, when you look at upper level winds it's still going to be a battle for anything more than a close scrape I'm sure there are a number of members on the ens track plots that re-curve that have nothing to do with Jose remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not sure the GFS will go all the way but it's looking like a close approach from Maria at 12z. Nearing NC landfall at 216 at 928mb. Seems like it could be acceptable for our area... Edit - turns sharp right and scrapes the OBX and... Edit 2 - scoots OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just one of many solutions. It's still a really close call. I think I still favor OTS. Pretty much agree. We need something to force the storm west. I really can't find anything on the ens to make that argument. Once the storm gets up to NC latitude, all the panels I see show an easy boot east. Much can change of course and not making any type of call whatsoever but until we see a viable way for the storm to pass near or west of of us @ our latitude it's hard to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 It will be hard to resolve Maria without knowing what happens to Jose. I think the two most likely scenarios are that Jose sticks around long enough to weaken the ridge and let Maria make an early turn, or that Jose gets out of the way (or dies) and Maria makes landfall around the Carolinas. If the latter, we may seem some remnants up here. The third-most likely scenario (if for no other reason than the Euro has shown it more than once) is that Maria Fujiwharas Jose right back at us. That might be the most fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Euro has Maria and Jose doing some swing dancing off the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Euro is about as big of a fail here as you can get. No real effects from either storm. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 12z GGEM is great lol... sits Maria in the same area for about 3 days off the SE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Re 12z GEFS Pretty good agreement through 168 on where Maria will be, with one cluster being a bit further west: However... get to 192... and then it looks like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Man. Maria really got her act together today. Beautiful pinhole eye right now. Dominica is in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I hope Puerto Rico doesn't get St Martin'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Irony at its finest! (1981) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=330914 Wow.. Hebert Box Round 2 Theory Trial 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Dominica is only now recovering from Hurricane David, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Really incredible series of storms that have RI'd. By my count: 7 of the last 8 named storms have become hurricanes 4 of the last 6 hurricanes have become majors All 4 majors have become at least Cat 4s The law of averages ended the major landfall drought more abruptly than our snow drought a few years ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Going to be something if there's an ERC post Dominica and it completes it prior to PR landfall. That EW could be much bigger than it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: Going to be something if there's an ERC post Dominica and it completes it prior to PR landfall. That EW could be much bigger than it is now. I'd think the track would change quite a bit if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The models keep Maria fairly small up to Puerto Rico so that 36-hr average track error is going to be very important for the island. What has been the case is that Maria has stayed on the southern side of much of the modeling in the short-term (within 24 hours). We booked our Thanksgiving trip to San Juan months ago; we go at least twice a year and are planning on buying property there and have friends who live in San Juan and in the southeast corner of the island. I keep on hoping that the small size will prevent the worst case scenario, with a near miss instead of the head-on hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Really incredible series of storms that have RI'd. By my count: 7 of the last 8 named storms have become hurricanes 4 of the last 6 hurricanes have become majors All 4 majors have become at least Cat 4s As people have mentioned elsewhere, there's certainly the chance that Jose gets the bump up to category 5 in the post-analysis. This has been the most high end windspeed <1 month period I can think of. Even 2005 had a break between Dennis/Emily and Katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 I made a Maria thread. Mods have the final word whether it's relevant at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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