MDstorm Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Given recent history, I can't really track this until the King is fully on board. It took the Euro a little while to get on board with Irma. 10 days ago, here's where the Euro thought Irma would be right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Looks like Jose is going to visit the Bahamas at 114.. now moving NW at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 That flat ridge over the Ohio Valley is going to make an east coast landfall north over the Tennessee Valley is going to make it almost impossible for Jose to make an east coast landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 6z GFS is a Chesapeake bay crusher. An@Eskimo Joe track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 06Z GFS has a little gift for the Midatlantic. 933 mb into OBX with a run up to the mouth of the bay @ 971 mb. Then a turn into N Va. 00Z Euro is the Grinch that stole Christmas though. Ninja'd by DCTeacherman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 5 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Just saw that ...Chill would approve. Ukmet sits tight off the Florida coast from 144-168 pounding them. No support from the Euro and it's ensembles .....yet. Looks as if tropical force winds would extend almost into DC and Balt. But looking at the 850's wind speed we could potentially see gusts approaching Hurricane force and that would extend up to the MD/Pa lime. Rain isn't shabby either. Gets 5 inches up to the Mason Dixon with 8-9 inches in our southern regions. But roughly 9-10 days away so..... Edit: Just saw Mappys gust map and realized I used the wrong conversion (sea instead of land) for 850 to surface for winds. That's what i get for juggling my Fantasy football with model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looks as if tropical force winds would extend almost into DC and Balt. But looking at the 850's wind speed we could potentially see gusts approaching Hurricane force and that would extend up to the MD/Pa lime. Rain isn't shabby either. Gets 5 inches up to the Mason Dixon with 8-9 inches in our southern regions. But roughly 9-10 days away so..... Looks like that trough in the mid west will be part of stew. 0Z had it further east. this time it hangs back at least on the op. It would be nice to track something else. I would hate to think we have to wait another couple of months, and maybe longer, at least before something of interest shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 blah. no. need a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 You know what they say, it's the storm after the storm after the storm that really gets you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 The GEFS locked on to an east coast landfall before the EPS with Irma if I recall correctly...so maybe the GEFS can lead us to the promised land with this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 2 hours ago, DCTeacherman said: 6z GFS is a Chesapeake bay crusher. An@Eskimo Joe track. It's not going to happen, also that's not an Eskimo Joe track. Weak sauce remnants with sub wind advisory gusts is the height of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Another than the initial landfall, seems Florida really got spared the winds. https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/907129378856828928 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 GFS had a few runs of Irma hitting here, too, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 38 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's not going to happen, also that's not an Eskimo Joe track. Weak sauce remnants with sub wind advisory gusts is the height of meh. Cmon though you're telling me you wouldn't enjoy that? That would probably be low end sustained TS with high end TS gusts area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Cmon though you're telling me you wouldn't enjoy that? That would probably be low end sustained TS with high end TS gusts area wide. Not at all. Go big or go home and that's my last statement on the matter before mappy comes in here and flips on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 12z gefs certainly more west than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Euro keeps it OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Grr, I thought I was in the Jose thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 11, 2017 Author Share Posted September 11, 2017 @WxWatcher007 How are things down there in SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 The 1015mb low NW of the Antilles needs to be watched, because the pattern looks like Sandy. It's day10 and probably won't verify, but if it does I noticed it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 https://twitter.com/AMSweather/status/907773960439439361 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 On 9/11/2017 at 2:12 PM, poolz1 said: 12z gefs certainly more west than previous runs (Emphasis on July) 2012 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 We'll see how 12z guidance looks and then maybe start a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 06z GFS at 324 and 336 is acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Floridians are getting drunk right now trying to forget the 18z gfs. Lol It's actually a good type of evolution for remnants in our area. Fast moving west track interacting with a front can work here. A clean gulf landfall would be better but we have 10+ days to work out the details. Eps free panels have a signal for the same system in the carribean @ d10. Now that we are moving into the second half of Sept the chances of a front/trough interaction to run remnants through our area go up quite a bit. Hopefully we can get into some sort of tropical action. I've spent more time this year looking at this stuff than I have in the last 5 combined. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Through the end of its run, 6z GFS has no fewer than 4 TCs that affect the EC or Gulf Coast. Not taking it verbatim, but it's an active pattern with some potential for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 @WxWatcher007 and @Eskimo Joe fully approve of this general setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: @WxWatcher007 and @Eskimo Joe fully approve of this general setup. Fantasy on the OP GFS 200HR+...meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: La la lock it up? It's a near perfect setup for a close center pass to our west. It can only go downhill from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 15, 2017 Author Share Posted September 15, 2017 Notice how much long range models seem to like teasing our neck of the woods, especially this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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