George BM Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 Not implying that this will happen but when was the last time that there were three simultaneous major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Today in modelology: What happens when two hurricanes collide head on? (Spoiler: I was hoping they combine to become a massive blob, but, of course, they Fujiwhara). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 Jose looks stunning this afternoon. I'm actually starting to wonder whether Jose could be a category 5 right now. It looks even better and cloud tops have cooled slightly since the HH flew through it this morning. Meh? Maybe. Just my personal thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Big (not unusually) run to run differences on the Euro - the HP over the midatlantic replaced with a low over the great lakes. Looks slightly more inviting for (a deeper) Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 We are now admonished. 18z GEFS suite for Hurricane Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Tightly clustered if using the atlantic in general as the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 Yeah Jose was probably a category 5 hurricane earlier today. 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JOSE EVEN STRONGER... ...ALMOST A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 59.3W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 59.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur overnight and on Saturday. Gradual weakening is expected after that. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 At 228 Jose is heading into the US. No way it can escape. Time to track this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Yeah, not to take away from the catastrophe of Irma, but for the Mid Atlantic/Northeast, this is the better one to track at this point as far effects go. I still think landfall in the USA is unlikely but you never know. Looks like the remains of Irma combined with some of Jose moisture brings showers next weekend to the Mid Atlantic at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 If the gfs/gefs ne bias that toyed with us with Irma is in play with Jose, I fully expect my yard to get in on some action in a week and a half. WxWatcher007 can catch up with sleep in December when there is nothing interesting going on for weeks on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 @losetoa6 Saw your ukie post in the Irma thread but wanted to keep Jose disco here. Especially now that it seems less than impossible to hit the US after a very technical loopity loop. Eps mean looks to favor keeping everything off the coast but it does look like there's a cluster that supports at least a graze here. Maybe someone can post the track plot. Broad brush analysis looks like any impacts here depend on how close Jose can get to the coast south of us before making a move north. Doesn't look like a good retro pattern but some sort of due north or nnw approach is within the envelope. If the shortwave trough approach looks more like a closeoff as leads shorten, we can start fantasizing about an overhead capture and resume staying up way too late for reasons most normal people will never understand. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 18z gfs does the MA head fake.....tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 18z gfs does the MA head fake.....tricky Very odd, Hermine-esque only much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 After the loop the loop, the models are all over the place with Jose: GFS: approach to MA, OTS, jog towards NJ, OTS again Euro: OBX from the SW Ukie: heading towards central Florida CMC: circles in the middle of the Atlantic JMA (for giggles): heading towards SC I'd have to say the CMC is probably the best bet at this point, but the possibilities are basically anywhere from S FL to Newfoundland to dissipation. Going to be a fun one to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Obviously Jose is a low probability chance for us but being in the game is fun. Feels like a seamless extension of Irma tracking. We labored over the north turn for Irma and that was a fairly straightforward piece of the puzzle. The stall loopity thing with Jose is much more complicated. Until that piece of the track is over there is now way to have any confidence in what happens after. The first thing we need to root for is Jose tracking as far south as possible after the loop. I expect @WxWatcher007 to post every eps track plot until all hope is lost. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Track plots aren't out yet but 18z gefs has 1 up the bay track. #trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Track plots aren't out yet but 18z gefs has 1 up the bay track. #trending Nice spot. I think this would be acceptable. ETA - Track-wise. Needs to weaken more slowly. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 ^ stupid image cache strikes again. 18z was a significant shift west compared to 12z. It's coming and it's less than 10 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: ^ stupid image cache strikes again. 18z was a significant shift west compared to 12z. It's coming and it's less than 10 days away! Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: ^ stupid image cache strikes again. 18z was a significant shift west compared to 12z. It's coming and it's less than 10 days away! I've been eyeing the ensemble trends. Intriguing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 AP14 Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 0z gfs is goofy as F but fun to look at. We have a chance in general but not getting there like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Early call..is further south ec hit or scrape at least. Cape May Special. PogChamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 That is one sharp left turn into Va and then decides to visit all the Commonwealth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, ATreglown said: That is one sharp left turn into Va and then decides to visit all the Commonwealth. That is far as the 00z GFS showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Trying to back into Va beach at 228 but that's fantasy land at 9 days It's a scrape..baby steps I was wondering how the heck that could possibly cut back west also LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: I was wondering how the heck that could possibly cut back west also LOL Remnants of Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: I was wondering how the heck that could possibly cut back west also LOL It's even more extreme than you think, don't have the in-between panels and the lower resolution makes it difficult to analyze but the center looks to come in on DE Coast or mouth of DE Bay. The important takeaway from this setup is the loop occurs in the short-range and the loop off the Bahamas is an essential requirement for a Mid-Atlantic Event. I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Not the norm but we have had a left hook in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 6z GFS 12z GFS The ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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