olafminesaw Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If there's such a thing as a seasonal trend for canes, look out Tx. Shhh, the media can hear the faintest whisper of Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: If there's such a thing as a seasonal trend for canes, look out Tx. If there was a scenario that I hope doesn't happen, it's the Gulf. Gas prices soared post Harvey. What would they do if Irma made to the western Gulf and possibly Texas??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I think the one thing that's clear on the EPS and GEFS today is that landfall north of VA beach is less likely...if we want impacts in our region we'll have to hope for landfall in NC and NNW or N movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I think the one thing that's clear on the EPS and GEFS today is that landfall north of VA beach is less likely...if we want impacts in our region we'll have to hope for landfall in NC and NNW or N movement. How often has landfall further north than that happen, anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: How often has landfall further north than that happen, anyway? Yeah I don't know of course it's more rare, but yesterday the GEFS had a nice cluster of mid Atlantic tracks, today nasomuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Today's guidance actually made it more complicated instead of getting clearer. I'm really enjoying the mental exercise if nothing else. I would say LF odds are a hair above equal chance at this point. I'm a tropical hack so I can put my neck out and not give an S...unlike wxwatcher...haha. Ens guidance shows a more favorable pattern for LF down the line than OTS. Of course the range of LF is many thousands of miles of coast along 2 major bodies of water. The trend towards a further south track is quite stark attm through the mid range. If the EPS strongly supported the op's idea of the ULL to the NE putting Irma on a leash I would think differently but the EPS doesn't show a strong signal for that type of evolution. The trough is on the EPS mean but it's weak and quicker to move. That makes more sense in general and also follows all other guidance. Now that we're seeing ens guidance continue to open the door of a FL LF or gulf track we should probably embrace the idea and not "wait for it to go away". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, supernovasky said: A ton of gulf solutions in the EPS now. Both the EUro and EPS have been trending closer to south Florida every run. Extrapolate the trend and the OP and mean will be a hit tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 On s side note, irma appears to be moving due SSW now, correcting this mornings wobble fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looking like they are all pointing towards the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Also note the JMA supports the Cuba cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, Amped said: Also note the JMA supports the Cuba cluster. At this point, the trend will take it to the Yuk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 If this thing is still a threat after the 0z runs we will need to start a thread just for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Recon finds 100kt 958mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 If this thing is still a threat after the 0z runs we will need to start a thread just for itAnd make it clear that imby questions, out of forum questions, and anything ridiculous will be deleted. It's been fun but weeding through crappy posts is annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 And make it clear that imby questions, out of forum questions, and anything ridiculous will be deleted. It's been fun but weeding through crappy posts is annoying Nothing will change... It's been the same with every storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Do I want to start that thread? My winter reaping hands may curse it. I say you start it, but the threat is still way off imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Nothing will change... It's been the same with every storm... Mods will make sure it stays in line, don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Start the thread @WxWatcher007. It's no longer a long range fantasy where the threat will be gone next run and we're getting close to some imortant benchmarks with the track. It will be a nice thread to revisit down the line with everything consolidated from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Start the thread @WxWatcher007. It's no longer a long range fantasy where the threat will be gone next run and we're getting close to some imortant benchmarks with the track. It will be a nice thread to revisit down the line with everything consolidated from here on out. Tried to message you but guess your mailbox is full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, mappy said: And make it clear that imby questions, out of forum questions, and anything ridiculous will be deleted. It's been fun but weeding through crappy posts is annoying Rochester, NY wind posts permitted tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, tim123 said: Please. FYI, they won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 @WxWatcher007 go ahead now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Tried to message you but guess your mailbox is full. I cleared it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Please. Understand your need for information, especially with a quiet subforum of your own, however, if a new thread is created, we should not be catering to answering specific questions for people's backyards, especially those way outside our region. no offense to you as you seem nice and just looking for infor, but this is the mid-Atlantic subforum. The main tropical thread may be more helpful for you as it should be focusing across all areas, not just one region. Please understand, we really on care about the weather here the could impact us. Not upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Be weary of the Hispaniola mountain killers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Through 102 the trough is slightly stronger, the ridge is slightly weaker, and Irma is a bit faster and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It's south at 108, but I don't think by a significant amount to matter at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 New Irma only thread here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Now the serious stuff is in its own thread, I'll say it- Cat 5 over Mar a Lago or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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