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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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CMC has the same cutoff exiting the coast of Maine but the timing is different so irma is inland already. Euro crawls the ULL off the NE coast and gives Irma an escape hatch. GFS is much weaker and further N with the cutoff so it is irrelevant. GEFS does not support the ULL off the NE coast at all. That's the key feature on the Euro's OTS solution. WAY too far out in time to rely on ops with that feature. 

 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CMC has the same cutoff exiting the coast of Maine but the timing is different so irma is inland already. Euro crawls the ULL off the NE coast and gives Irma an escape hatch. GFS is much weaker and further N with the cutoff so it is irrelevant. GEFS does not support the ULL off the NE coast at all. That's the key feature on the Euro's OTS solution. WAY too far out in time to rely on ops with that feature. 

 

We are walking a fine line at 500mb with this storm. It's becoming unanimous that the system makes a run into the Bahamas and makes a turn to the north as it rounds the western extension of the WAR. The trough over NA becomes a player now in it not picking up the system, but splitting a piece and creating a ULL over Nova Scotia that allows for the WAR to be beat down enough to create an escape route. The Euro has a tendency to do something like this at times in the long range and it makes you wonder if it could be on to something or just a blip. There's too many questions and not enough definitive answers to give a real forecast of where this goes beyond 70W. To make matters worse, we won't get formidable recon data until tomorrow that could have implications down the line. For now, EPS and GEFS all day for any semblance of forecasting beyond Day 5 and we can Oooo and Ahhhh at the OP's for a few more days before giving them more weight. Isn't tropical fun?  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

We are walking a fine line at 500mb with this storm. It's becoming unanimous that the system makes a run into the Bahamas and makes a turn to the north as it rounds the western extension of the WAR. The trough over NA becomes a player now in it not picking up the system, but splitting a piece and creating a ULL over Nova Scotia that allows for the WAR to be beat down enough to create an escape route. The Euro has a tendency to do something like this at times in the long range and it makes you wonder if it could be on to something or just a blip. There's too many questions and not enough definitive answers to give a real forecast of where this goes beyond 70W. To make matters worse, we won't get formidable recon data until tomorrow that could have implications down the line. For now, EPS and GEFS all day for any semblance of forecasting beyond Day 5 and we can Oooo and Ahhhh at the OP's for a few more days before giving them more weight. Isn't tropical fun?  

Great post. The euro even dives the ULL SE between 144-168 so that feature is on steroids compared to other guidance. Could it happnen? Yea, of course. Can you have any confidence in it at this lead? heh

JMA rolls irma through the mountains of Cuba into the gulf then LF @ Panama City. From what I'm seeing, I'm thinking the gulf track is making a bit of a comeback. Since it's becoming more clear that Irma is going to miss the trough completely, there isn't really a strong signal for obvious steering currents as Irma leaves the bahamas. No man's land like I said earlier. Climo says curve NW the N but if Irma tracks along the southern part of the envelope down the line, a track into the gulf or florida is a good bit more than a slim chance. 

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BTRWx

BTRWx

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29 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Any analogs for a season that had a major hurricane landfall along the Gulf coast and along the Eastern Seaboard from different storms?

eta: I found 1 so far (Charley and Ivan 2004)

Is 2004 the only time?!

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Great post. The euro even dives the ULL SE between 144-168 so that feature is on steroids compared to other guidance. Could it happnen? Yea, of course. Can you have any confidence in it at this lead? heh

JMA rolls irma through the mountains of Cuba into the gulf then LF @ Panama City. From what I'm seeing, I'm thinking the gulf track is making a bit of a comeback. Since it's becoming more clear that Irma is going to miss the trough completely, there isn't really a strong signal for obvious steering currents as Irma leaves the bahamas. No man's land like I said earlier. Climo says curve NW the N but if Irma tracks along the southern part of the envelope down the line, a track into the gulf or florida is a good bit more than a slim chance. 

I agree completely and I think that's why we have so many ensemble members trying to do just that. There's been a resurgence on the FL landfall idea last several runs. Euro was insanely close this go around, but WAR positioning and that trough over Nova Scotia was enough to make the turn to north, and a sharp one at that. It'll be interesting to see if GFS or Euro throw in a FL landfall in next 24 hours of runs. Probably not, but they might flirt with the idea. Btw, if that trough isn't there on Euro, that storm would rock Eastern Carolina and crap all over us given the strength and position of WAR. 500mb vort panels showed just how close this was. 

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