The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

[gymengineer]

The thing is that our once-in-a-generation tropical event (Isabel) would barely make a dent in a list of most exciting tropical events this generation in almost any coastal area south of the NC/VA border. For example, inland Orlando's third best event of just the year 2004 (Frances) far exceeded what we experienced with Isabel. We get hurricane conditions about once a century. A storm like Fran (96) was actually a very decent event for the area, but river flooding from it afterwards far exceeded the day-of impacts. 

But our best snowstorms continually are in the same league as the best ones to our northeast, so that accounts for the imbalance. 

 

 

[gymengineer]

53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

True, and you're definitely right about climo, but living by using other people's standards is a recipe for catastrophe and insanity. Simply put, I'm over the moon with any tropical or tropical related I can get. My horrendously low standards is probably the only saving grace as I live with this affliction. I definitely look for sig tropical events--my best one was Sandy here in 2012, but that wasn't as great locally as some of the others. Only takes a remnant low to our west to bring "excitement". 

As for our best MA snowstorms being on par with the best in the northeast, I know you know climo as well as anyone in this region, but I beg to differ, at least in DC (I know places north and west can do very well). In terms of wind, snowfall, and snowfall intensity, I don't think the best DC proper has to offer (with the exception of Knickerbocker) comes close to some of the truly epic storms in places like HFD, ORH, and BOS. 1888, 1978, 2013, and 2015 come to mind. Just to name a few. Our good stuff is good, but if you're along 95, I'm not sure it's as good as that. 

Don't get me wrong-- I love any tropical remnant/TS condition experience. It's just that those memories fade for most non-weather-obsessed folk in the area whereas the biggies snow-wise remain planted in their memories. I loved Ernesto '06 in Annapolis- wind, rain, storm surge. Hannah '08 was fun too with TS gusts. As I said, Fran was pretty high up there as a "dress rehearsal" for Isabel, complete with TS gusts, decent storm surge, wind-swept squalls, power outages, etc. Floyd was nice wind-wise, but like Hannah, they were from the wrong direction (N vs. S) to cause much disruption. But ask most people about Fran, Floyd, Ernesto, or Hannah, and they'd have no idea when the event happened. 

As for snowstorms, of course I'm not including lowland DC or especially DCA .  I'm not even talking about just using the NW suburbs. If you look at the other major city in our region which *is* along I-95-- Baltimore--the big ones stack up well snowfall-wise there against Boston. Of course Logan Airport is going to get better winds than our airports. That's why I said "in the same league." Our snowstorms might not match every criteria of the worst New England blizzards, but at least they're on the same playing field: >25" snow with multiple areas over 30", >45 mph gusts, >5' drifts, etc. 

But that's a minor quibble. My main point is that we get big-deal snowstorms with some frequency, but very rarely get any tropical systems that can bring sustained TS-force winds to the cities. So, anything in the 7-day range tropical-wise is such low-chance for our area (and up to NYC) that it almost seems weird to use the term "fail" or "cave." (When metfan complained about wasting a week of his time staying up late for model runs for Earl, I was thinking "What were you expecting ?!") Even in the 3-day range, like when models showed Joaquin or Hermine impacting our area, it's still showing a solution that is so anomalous for our region that excitement is tempered with skepticism.  

[yoda]

 

[yoda]

 

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS gets embarrassed all the time

FYP

[mitchnick]

Never ever fall in love with the Euro's longer range stuff. I'm still seeking counseling over this one.

 

[mattie g]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

The usually conservative goes "big". 

 

But...I heard that the writing was on the wall already!

[gymengineer]

18 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Poor DC  

As someone said around here recently, getting direct tropical is like hitting the lottery. You have to have a cascade of things that occur to have it happen.

"Indirect" impacts in my mind are like scratch off tickets. Most of the time you'll lose, sometimes you'll break even or win a little, and maybe...just maybe you'll get a Lee or something. 

I wonder what the most memorable non winter event is to people around here.

Start a thread? I've wondered about this too. How many people would rank the Derecho ahead of Isabel? 

[yoda]

20 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Start a thread? I've wondered about this too. How many people would rank the Derecho ahead of Isabel? 

Not me.  Isabel is #1 for me, though the derecho is a close 2nd.  I give preference to Isabel cause I was here for it, I was out of town for the Derecho

[yoda]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Up to 50% 5 day odds for the 99L fish Invest. Interestingly, the NHC just introduced 10% 2 and 5 day odds for a trough of low pressure in the Bahamas. That thing has made some progress the last few days, with increasing low level vorticity and somewhat persistent convection. 

12z GFS wanted to know what storm and 00z EURO was weak and fishy... both for 99L.  Season still looks boring next few weeks.

ETA: Bahamas thing is meh... heavy rain ftw and thats pretty much it

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Can't tell if you're doing an @Eskimo Joe or @Kmlwx impression. 

 

He's learning from the best.  The Atlantic basin has been total poop since 2005.  Outside of Sandy there hasn't been one interesting storm to track.  SAL and shear at this latitude and the ill-timed US trough are probably going to snuff this season out too.  It's pretty pathetic that we find a strong tropical storm in the Bay of Campeche to be interesting.

[bigtenfan]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

He's learning from the best.  The Atlantic basin has been total poop since 2005.  Outside of Sandy there hasn't been one interesting storm to track.  SAL and shear at this latitude and the ill-timed US trough are probably going to snuff this season out too.  It's pretty pathetic that we find a strong tropical storm in the Bay of Campeche to be interesting.

I don't know about that. i thought that Matthew last year would fit the criteria of an interesting storm to follow.

[Wonderdog]

Is there something brewing off the SC coast?

[mattie g]

On 8/8/2017 at 7:59 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS gets embarrassed twice in one week?

GFS "wins?"

[yoda]

99L is 20/40 now... thats down from earlier this week (the 5 day % number)

[ldub23]

20/40 seems awfully generous for a dried up wave that  is being strangled by an upper low.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro, Canadian and to a lesser extent the GFS all have an uptick in activity in the Atlantic in the next 7-10 days, along with decent ensemble support. Euro and Canadian have been consistent with at least a robust wave the last few days. Like I said yesterday, this does not look like a close the shades pattern. 

I was looking at the day 10-15 ens h5 means today and thought it look ok. The kicker pattern breaks down and appears to be a better look for landfall if something were to approach the US. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree. As you know, we're often a prisoner of the fronts/troughs/ridge weaknesses that we can't see this far out, but after an HM tweet the other day he made me pay closer attention. Like winter, all we can ask is to be in the game?

 

This unusual amplified pattern won't last much longer. There just no way we skate through August with a constant barrage of troughs and continental air. When it breaks it's probably gone for several weeks or longer. Probably good timing too as we enter tropical climo prime time. 

I only get interested when we're in the game with a specific invest or td. Hopefully something breaks over the next 2-3 weeks. 

[yoda]

Slowly saying night night to 99L -- 12z EC has nada next 10 days in the Atlantic... 12z GFS doesn't show much either for next 15 days -- looking at both h5 charts as we close the blinds... unless you want to believe the 12z CMC

An area of disturbed weather centered a couple of hundred miles
north of Puerto Rico continues to move toward the west-northwest
or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. There are no indications of a closed
circulation at this time, but upper-level winds are forecast to
become a little more favorable for development by the weekend. Dry
air aloft could limit additional development of the thunderstorm
activity, making the overall environment only marginally conducive
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Jason WX]

 

[showmethesnow]

@WxWatcher007 The 12Z CMC should have you salivating. At least it would if it was anything but the CMC. Has an assembly line of storms lined up across the tropical Atlantic.

[Wonderdog]

6z run shows a 959 tropical system just off the coast at Hilton Head at noon on the 24th. Then moves inland and to the west of WDC. Hurricaines never hit Hilton Head, or hardley ever so this will change but its nice to track anyway.

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Check out the traffic jam on the Euro....

1...2...3

Check out the hour on the Euro...

2...4...0 

I know, I know. I am a Debbie Downer. 

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

I'm still skeptical of whether we see a "hot period" but as you could tell from my two recent "major" posts, I am becoming more bullish on the next two weeks. When I talked about the four major factors for development on Wednesday (SSTs, Shear, Moisture, MJO), it was less clear whether we'd have a decidedly more favorable MJO and SAL profile. Looking at things this morning, not only does the MJO look more favorable for the next few week or two (at least) but I think the SAL has taken a bit of a more favorable orientation, which would be helpful to waves that are south enough to have long term tracking potential--though I think the jury is still out on whether that will remain the case. 

Shear and SSTs look fine, and a CCKW is starting to move across our part of the world, which should enhance activity as well. 

Just as I wasn't ready to buy into the LR op models showing no activity, I'm not ready to buy into them showing spin city. That said, I think the SSTs, MJO and CCKW are pretty much locked favorable. If shear and more importantly the SAL remain or become more favorable, watch out. 

Finally--we're an eternity out, but the 500h pattern still looks intriguing. You can kinda see that with the Euro taking 91L through the Florida Straits and the GFS continuing to show an EC threat. We are a long way from declaring anything as a bona fide threat to the US, but if this progged pattern holds, I think the odds go up in a meaningful way. 

The only thing I can say with 100% certainty is that a major fight with my gf is coming in about two weeks over all the tracking I'm about to do.

#$%&

 

Between still be jaded from all the teases we had during the winter and now during the tropical, both in the longer range, I am in show me mode. As in, lets see these patterns and storms actually progress into the shorter range and then bear fruit. Maybe it is just me, and maybe the verification scores prove otherwise, but it seems the last year or so the models have been horrible in overall general pattern recognition in the longer ranges.

[Amped]

4 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Check out the traffic jam on the Euro....

1...2...3

LAst few years haven't had much ACE in the MID AUG to MID Sept time-frame. I'm ready for that to change, bring it on.

[NorthArlington101]

Copypaste from me talking to myself on the 91L thread.

18z DOOM run:

 

Makes its landfall (or a near-landfall) at NC/SC border at 971mb. Then lurks off the coast for hours. Surely tons of imaginary erosion. Off in fantasy land. If you want to DOOM-cast even harder, note that the model has it gain 30mb (952 to 988_ between 240-252, probably because it shifts to a lower res in the long range. 

[Vice-Regent]

Please take note that the precipitation scale is in inches. More evidence of how obscene this model run was. A good direct analog would be Joaquin of 2015, albeit interestingly enough much earlier in the season thus possibly encountering a better upper level environment for strengthening. Accumulated precipitation is literally off the scale over Coastal NC.

 

[yoda]

Gert hurricane by Wednesday and then gone (as in goodbye Gert) by Day 4-5 per 11pm NHC advisory

I guess 91L will be intriguing... by next weekend lol

ETA:  In the GGEM department, it has 91L sitting in the Bahamas at 240

[Vice-Regent]

11 hours ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

I wouldn't count TD8 ots just yet.   steering currents will be weak. 

GFS even hinting at a weak Low development Monday night near N.C.

[Kmlwx]

06Z GFS essentially lost the storm lol.