gymengineer Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Not buying into that track going into southern Ohio. When was the last time a tropics system crossed over the apps from the east. Hugo, Fran, Isabel all made it to a position not far from what the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I am not too worried about the bias.... Even if you add 25 MB at landfall.. It would still be an historic event.... also... The big ones lock in early.. This really looks to be one of those cases.. At this point I am fairly confident that someone on the east coast will be impacted. But it is tropical... So who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Our only hope is the GFS is over amplifying Irma which allows it to buck west after landfall. Otherwise this going to be painful to watch miss us.Nope. I'm ok. And there are 200 hours left. Got tons of more "painful" runs to get it to "passable". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Cmc toss it. Shows a ga landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 No one it talking about the pressure gradient we could be looking at here with Irma when she makes landfall. If the HP is as strong as depicted to the north of Irma as she moves up, she could still miss us by a decent amount and the winds would still be lots of beers worthy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Our only hope is the GFS is over amplifying Irma which allows it to buck west after landfall. Otherwise this going to be painful to watch miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Kinda fun to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GEFS Wow. Scariest ensemble run for Florida in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'm wondering if this isn't going to be a Miami to New Orleans storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GFS sounding for IAD during height of event. Looks pretty ominous to me. Mixing in heavier cells would be some pretty crazy winds verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Check out Irma on visible. Clearly moving due west right now and it is not a wobble. Well north of the NHC projected path. This is likely to have some effect down the line on actual path. Put on the lat/lon function and NHC track plot on this page. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Check out these wave heights: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Seems to be a west trend right now. Not sure if it will matter or not for us, probably important for the islands though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Check out these wave heights: Sharing the VA wind maps that were posted on Reddit, these are the 850mb. (GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 34 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Hugo, Fran, Isabel all made it to a position not far from what the GFS is showing. Correct, although this looks to make it about 100 miles further west. Not that hard to imagine I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'm out doing stuff so I cant dig into the gfs/gefs but let's be logical here for a minute.... If youre hoping for sig impact, do you want a tc passing west or east at this lead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, CoastalBecs said: Check out Irma on visible. Clearly moving due west right now and it is not a wobble. Well north of the NHC projected path. This is likely to have some effect down the line on actual path. Put on the lat/lon function and NHC track plot on this page. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-vis-long.html Funny how we're looking at day 7+ maps for a storm that's 30 miles north of the 6 hr forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The 5 pm update yesterday placed it at 17.4 n and 48.8 w at 18z today (2pm) Going off sat, looks like it's 2 pm will be close to 17.9 n and about 49.2 w. So its about a half a degree n and w of forecast. I think this is where those timing issues will loom large in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It has probably been stated in this thread, but I wonder if the intensity problem on the GFS has an impact on the track. A more intense modeled system may not be affected as much by the steering currents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Irma is already the highest ace storm of 2017. By the time it dissipates I expect it to be responsible for about 2/3 of this years ace. http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: It has probably been stated in this thread, but I wonder if the intensity problem on the GFS has an impact on the track. A more intense modeled system may not be affected as much by the steering currents. The GEFS aren't as intense and most show similar tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Euro through 96 is a touch further Sw, the trough is flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'm going to guess Euro landfall in GA or SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: I'm going to guess landfall in GA or SC I'd be nervous with these trends if I lived in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Florida scraper incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Florida scraper incoming. Or straight on Miami hit... Edit- nvm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Oh. Oh wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Significantly slower this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'm old enough to remember when Euro was king. Now, I'm not sure what exactly you'd call it? Deplorable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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