LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Monster storm if you believe GFS. Stays sub-900 for 36+hrs. Knowing full well that's likely overdone with intensities, I wonder what's the record in the Atlantic Basin (and the world too) for consecutive hours at Cat 5 intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Exactly. That's why I've been so adamant on Irma getting to the Bahamas. A steering flow that gets it there is one that makes it a lot harder for a recurve. I was never into a system NE of the Bahamas being a legitimate EC threat. Well put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Ashore right on the NC SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Landfall sometime between 198-204. NC/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looks like Mrytle Beach SC / Wilmington NC Landfall at 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looks like landfall near NC/SC border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Worth noting it's slower again, lack of steering. I don't think that helps Bob get his eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Quickly zooming off into Central NC. Tropical rain and wind in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 If the trend is to keep building the ridge, which is entirely possible this far out, it'll be a Hugo redux as to area of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Delayed landfall until 204hrs again. Keeping the storm 8.5 days out. No increase in confidence this run, and for as long as it keeps delaying the landfall time by 6 hrs every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Meh. On to Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Sad to see it shoot north so fast. Looked promising at the start but then it's really meh up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Sad to see it shoot north so fast. Looked promising at the start but then it's really meh up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'm shocked, shocked, that we will end up with just some rain and wind. It's almost like that's what we always get from these systems on the rare occasion they do impact us. Isabel is the only tropical system that I remember having a major impact during my lifetime. Floyd was also pretty decent with rain and some wind. I'm sure there were a couple others that gave us some good rains but, for the most part, these things fail to impact us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just to be sure, but everyone does know about the GFS' Yyuugggeee overamplification bias for tropical systems since its last upgrade, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Y'all are a hoot. "we" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Just to be sure, but everyone does know about the GFS' Yyuugggeee oversimplification bias for tropical systems since its last upgrade, right? Please explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 This far out and it's certainly SE of its last two GFS run positions I'd say we should be happy as clams...just seeming a sub 900mb is alone impressive...I like our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Giving up at D8-9? Geez. Like giving up after the top of the 1st because your team went 123. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Just to be sure, but everyone does know about the GFS' Yyuugggeee overamplification bias for tropical systems since its last upgrade, right? That bias is pushing it too far west by 150 miles right? /weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Lakes cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Some of y'all live and die by these runs. I don't know how you sleep at night. Don't include me in the group that sees a major hurricane hit the US and says 'meh'. Don't include me in a group that thinks "meh" is English. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Timing of the mid lat features is the key, correct? I'd think timing those features with the hurricane at this range would still be a very difficult task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Not buying into that track going into southern Ohio. When was the last time a tropics system crossed over the apps from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The fact at Day 8 the GFS shows a legit Cat 4/5 into the US and some of y'all are meh'ing is really remarkable. I got news for you, next run will change and the next one after that and we will not start getting a greater consensus until Tuesday at the earliest. Until then, watch the 500mb progression and trends in intensity from the storm itself. GFS has a known intensity bias with tropical cyclones. It did it with Lidia in the EPAC and it's likely doing it now. That said, energy content in the Northern Caribbean and off SE US coast is high and ripe for cyclone intensification as long as shear remains weak. Storm will likely be large and in charge come game time, but please save the bickering and down playing for another time. Really annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The biggest difference between today and yesterday's GFS runs is that the models have returned to "normal" hurricane tracks. The CMC and GFS tracks from today all have multiple historic analogs. It's also too early to rule out landfall in the Miami area given where Irma is being placed in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It's actually amazing how much uniformity there is through ~120hrs. As, I think, Bob said earlier, once it misses the trough, track becomes really hard to predict without steering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GFS insistent on a sub 900 landfall. This would be the the end of Myrtle Beach right here. Horrifying really: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Our only hope is the GFS is over amplifying Irma which allows it to buck west after landfall. Otherwise this going to be painful to watch miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 500mb pattern looks totally different than last run at 204hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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