Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's reassuring to see the hurricane models point to a landfall and not a side swipe. I hope the Euro continues to trend west and this wasn't a one time fluke run. 0z euro extrapolation @hr252 takes the eye right overhead. I'm hugging that until the gfs comes back with an up the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 0z euro extrapolation @hr252 takes the eye right overhead. I'm hugging that until the gfs comes back with an up the bay. I'm good with that. No more side impacts or glancing blows. It's time for a real event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Wait. So are you saying a Cat 4 into NC and then just west of DC isn't a real event? If you aren't in the eye can you say the storm really hit you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Rick Nabb really pushing preparation on twitter. Can't argue with it. EC seems due for a biggie and I feel like lots of folks (sans maybe OBX) are not properly prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Has dt admitted the gfs has schooled the euro so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Wait. So are you saying a Cat 4 into NC and then just west of DC isn't a real event? We've seen these things fall through our hands too many times. I'd like to see the Euro ensembles close off the OTS solution this weekend. The 00z OP was a nice surprise to wake up to but the ensembles don't inspire much confidence. This could be that one tease run of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 EJ has agreed to take post and report obs from the bay bridge tunnel during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: EJ has agreed to take post and report obs from the bay bridge tunnel during the storm. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Houston says hell yes. Forgot the /s. Anyways checked the NAVGEM just for fun. Looks like it wants to take it into the Gulf. Rides the islands. Hope PR is ready. They could be in for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Something I haven't seen discussed yet but worth mentioning. Canes that track into NC and head north usually accelerate poleward very quickly. With the block showing up on the ops and ens that wouldn't be the case. Especially with a westerly component to the track. It would be a 24 hour storm even at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm good with that. No more side impacts or glancing blows. It's time for a real event. I'm right there with you on this. If she were to come up the Chesapeake, she'd probably still be a Cat 2 in PA. I'd take that in a heartbeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Something I haven't seen discussed yet but worth mentioning. Canes that track into NC and head north usually accelerate poleward very quickly. With the block showing up on the ops and ens that wouldn't be the case. Especially with a westerly component to the track. It would be a 24 hour storm even at our latitude. Didn't Irene or Isabel accelerate to over 40 mph once inland? Those two hauled ass due to no HP overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, H2O said: Didn't Irene or Isabel accelerate to over 40 mph once inland? Those two hauled ass due to no HP overhead Yea Irene was in and out fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Voyager said: I'm right there with you on this. If she were to come up the Chesapeake, she'd probably still be a Cat 2 in PA. I'd take that in a heartbeat! Damn, never knew you as a hurricane guy. That said, I hope we do get something notable out of this (but not destructive). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I wonder how DT is going to explain how the euro/eps schooled the gfs/gefs. He''ll find a way to twist it into a Euro win. Always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, H2O said: Didn't Irene or Isabel accelerate to over 40 mph once inland? Those two hauled ass due to no HP overhead Isabel had a weird h5 setup leading in but it was a beeline track for sure. Storm made landfall on a nw trajectory and just kept going. Irma has potential to come in due north and slow down if it makes a left turn. Just one of many possible outcomes but the primary reason the ops and ens look the same right now with the track is because they all agree on a strong block halting north or northeasterly motion. Risk of a FL landfall is increasing. Irma is modeled to miss the trough so the storm may enter an area of steering flow no mans land. That would make things really complicated and prone to large shifts in track in the med to short range. The cone would be a double or triple scoop. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Damn, never knew you as a hurricane guy. That said, I hope we do get something notable out of this (but not destructive). I'm a severe/extreme weather guy. Blizzard, hurricane, thunderstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 he's already griping about intensity of irma as shown on gfs, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Did anyone else see the end of the GFS? Just for fun of course. Jose forms, stalls over PR, then is poised to U-turn at sea once it gets up to Boston. Wacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: he's already griping about intensity of irma as shown on gfs, Just ignore JB and DT. You'll be better for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Both Isabel and Connie had an initial period of TS-winds move into the region well ahead of the COC, when the COC was still in *NC*. Connie, especially, was a rather slow mover for our latitude. By the time the core of both storms got here, the winds weren't appreciably higher than that first band of TS-force winds. I think the 24-hr climb the Euro is depicting would be the similar-- a raggedy core by the time it got up here, but TS-gusts for a long duration given the expansive wind field. The GFS's depiction would be a higher impact event for the area, IMO, even though the center is further from us because of the faster movement once inland and the fact that the center goes west of us. So although the cities would miss the heaviest rains, the strong wind would be prolonged out of the south--- the tree trouble direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 hours ago, Westendsnowguy said: He just deletes the comments that he doesn't like, I made a few this morning about the EPS/EURO and the fact he did his video before they came out but he deleted them. You havent been blocked by DT yet on Facebook? Most of us were blocked years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: You do get a lot more rainfall on the W side though. I was on the NE side of Sandy and got 1" of rain- granted we had 90 mph winds and a 25 hr blackout lol. yea i was mostly referring to winds. i could honestly envision a cat 3 off of OC with 20-40mph gusts here. i'm being serious. history is key...how many times has dc ever had a 80+ mph gust. pretty uncommon. generally speaking (unless we're talking about a freak tornado), we don't do big wind here very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: That's a great point. Depending on how far west the center gets, a Hazel like track up this way at the currently progged strength would be a historic hit. Add in a large cane that winds down slowly and a slower than climo track and we would probably be devastated through the region and maybe beyond. Wouldn't it weaken though since it's moving slower and would take longer to get to our latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Presentation is awe worthy on the gfs........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I wonder what physical size Irma will be as it nears landfall. NHC mentioned in there disco that it probably be decent size. I remember tracking Hugo and i was in awe of its overall massive size. Look at that map I posted above. The GFS thinks it would be incredibly large. That hurricane force wind field is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said: Presentation is awe worthy on the gfs........ That IR is glorious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GFS is making me blush again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: So soon? It was in reference to the IR image posted above. Old run, my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Relatively indistinguishable from the last few runs so far. Prob a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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