Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Most of this sibforum is only brushed by precip this run. North of CHO this is meh...north of Potomac it's a heart breaker. Dude, I guaranty you that if the track and strength happend verbatim you would not be saying that afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Yes... but that's what we said a few days ago lol. This is almost like winter practice... Gives my special fall tomatoes a chance to get ripe before this cat5 comes up the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Gefs has some re-curves this time but they look like northern outliers near the bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 hours ago, Bob Chill said: If I could figure out the euro password I would do the same but it's not easy. The gfs password is password because of the FOIA We love FOIA transparency This storm is making me think about storm chasing down near Cape Fear. You don't see a monster like this very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Agree. You don't have to go further back than Sandy to see that being on the SW side of a tropical system around here isn't especially impressive. Hazel is the Carolina landfall that is the ticket around here, though the forward speed of that one also contributed. You do get a lot more rainfall on the W side though. I was on the NE side of Sandy and got 1" of rain- granted we had 90 mph winds and a 25 hr blackout lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Euro very similar to the gfs through 120 but further wsw with Irma. Slower troff if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I would like to order a Cat 5 Irma. I would like 190 sustained winds, 245 mph gusts, and a monster 70 foot storm surge up the Bay. and potential 40 inch rains from persistent, pressure washer, Port Arthur-like deathbands that stay on top of Dale City for 5 days from a slow moving monster Cane. I'd like it to move up the 91 degree Bay, then stall out south of Dale City. I am not asking for much, Gods of Weather. All I am askin' for, is a delightful hurricane of my life, delivered courtesy of amplified climate change on effin' Steroids. I have always wanted this. Sept 10 is the Future, and the future is now! I want 40 inches of rain in Dale City, just for me, to savor and enjoy, for once and for all. Bring it ON, Gods of Weather. Bring it the hell on, Goddess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 0Z Euro now shows a Wilmington, NC landfall and looks to move north from there. Trough to the north got out of the way in time and allowed high pressure to build in and prevent Irma's escape. Will be interesting to see what EPS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I count 11 EPS members that send it out to sea. It's not hard to tell where the trend is going. GFS ens are ALL landfalling again, but they suggest it could go anywhere on the EC, even the Gulf. Gonna be a long couple of days. Gun to my head, this is a NC landfall. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 High isn't as strong this time on the 6z. Nor is Irma. A measly 894mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 SC/NC border hit @ 900mb on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: SC/NC border hit @ 900mb on this run. Would be a less high impact scenario, misses major cities apart from Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 hours ago, Jebman said: I would like to order a Cat 5 Irma... lol...I just want yesterday's Chesapeake Bay scenario with a push right into PA. Let it ride the I-83 corridor to Harrisburg and then I-81 into New York, I'd end up on the eastern side but close to the center of circulation that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Euro scenario would be fun for us, probably get TS conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Besides maybe being a touch south with the mean track the 06Z GEFS is running pretty much in lock step with the OP. Haven't looked at individual tracks yet but would think OBX down through Florida would be under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 616 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Though a cold front will be approaching on Tuesday deep layer moisture seems to remain suppressed to our south. Given how light the prefrontal flow regime is this seems plausible. The flow tightens up Tuesday night into Wednesday and cyclonic height falls overspread the area as a deep mid level trough carves its way into the Great Lakes. The boundary lines up with the mid level flow right along the coast late Wednesday night into early Thursday for some lingering rain chances, though the deep moisture will be offshore. The front will then move a bit farther offshore assuming the trough is as progressive as some models indicate. Per the WPC/NHC long range conference call this seems questionable given the strength of the upstream ridge in the west. Irma`s circulation could also be affecting the front by Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, MiddleRvrwx said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 616 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 3 PM Saturday...Though a cold front will be approaching on Tuesday deep layer moisture seems to remain suppressed to our south. Given how light the prefrontal flow regime is this seems plausible. The flow tightens up Tuesday night into Wednesday and cyclonic height falls overspread the area as a deep mid level trough carves its way into the Great Lakes. The boundary lines up with the mid level flow right along the coast late Wednesday night into early Thursday for some lingering rain chances, though the deep moisture will be offshore. The front will then move a bit farther offshore assuming the trough is as progressive as some models indicate. Per the WPC/NHC long range conference call this seems questionable given the strength of the upstream ridge in the west. Irma`s circulation could also be affecting the front by Saturday. I was questioning this somewhat as well. You would think that the strong ridging that builds over top the trough and bridges with the eastern Atlantic ridge would not be so easily shoved aside by the closed low/trough as it pulls back northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I don't like these ensemble trends toward the SE coast one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I wonder how DT is going to explain how the euro/eps schooled the gfs/gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I wonder how DT is going to explain how the euro/eps schooled the gfs/gefs. He just deletes the comments that he doesn't like, I made a few this morning about the EPS/EURO and the fact he did his video before they came out but he deleted them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Nhc questions how progressive front is in east. So it's a timing issue. They seem to think it's being modeled to fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 hours ago, cae said: Stepping back and looking at the big picture, here are the mean tracks of various ensembles of ensembles over the last several 00z/12z runs. There appears to be a gradual trend towards a more western track. The 18z GEFS appears to have continued this trend. You can find out which ensembles are included in each of these tracks here. Below is the latest image in this trend. All means are now showing landfall, except the EPS mean. But that's a little misleading, as a majority of the EPS members now show landfall. Notice the UKMET mean (UKMN), which is to the south of the others. The UKMET ensemble has been steadily trending south and now has a lot of members that look like they want to send this storm into the Gulf (below). Although it appears to be an outlier, I wouldn't dismiss it. The UKMET is a very good model, and it was the first to pick up on Matthew's up-the-Florida-coast track last year. It seemed like an outlier then as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 When's the first hurricane hunter investigation on this ? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: When's the first hurricane hunter investigation on this ? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Monday? Https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/09/02/hurricane-field-program-update-saturday-sept-2-2017-11-am-et/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: When's the first hurricane hunter investigation on this ? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I believe tomorrow is the first chance. I read 9/4 somewhere yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 12z hurricane models lock step with the euro/gfs track. I can't grab the link with mobile for some reason or I would post the image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It's reassuring to see the hurricane models point to a landfall and not a side swipe. I hope the Euro continues to trend west and this wasn't a one time fluke run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's reassuring to see the hurricane models point to a landfall and not a side swipe. I hope the Euro continues to trend west and this wasn't a one time fluke run. for FL, GA, SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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