tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Oh. Wxbell. I gotta subscribe one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wxbell. Sssh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 ANother view of 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Those GEFS are pretty crazy. Not a single fish on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Bonus FL/AL TS at the end of the GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Those GEFS are pretty crazy. Not a single fish on them. That actually makes me think the gefs is error prone and not performing well. It's had mutiple runs lately with fairly tight spread and that shouldnt be happening at d7+ leads with a 20 member suite. I mean I guess it's possible that it's just locked in but I'm bigly skeptical of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I actually get wxbell for free (courtesy of a friend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: That actually makes me think the gefs is error prone and not performing well. It's had mutiple runs lately with fairly tight spread and that shouldnt be happening at d7+ leads with a 20 member suite. I mean I guess it's possible that it's just locked in but I'm bigly skeptical of that. GFS vs Euro. Who'd of thought? GEFS LOCKED IN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I'll say the same thing I did during the Joaquin model war (which was much closer to game time than this)... do you trust the model that shows the nuke job with an unprecedented track, or the model that shows the climo solution (12z Euro)? I know people will respond with "But Sandy!!!!" but rare events are... rare. At any rate, this is a scary run. I'd likely lose everything... definitely rooting for OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: You probably know this, but the GEFS tends to track closer to the op than one would expect. I think the term a met used in the main thread today was "underdisperse". See it pretty frequently in Atlantic tropical from what I've seen. Doesn't make it wrong, but it does increase the chances that they sway more with the op. Haven't read any chatter about it but it sure has crossed my mind. I've seen the eps do it in the winter multiple times. Mostly with <7 day leads. I can't think of a specific event or anything but there are times when the op males a big shift and eps consensus follows but then it all flips again down the line. Another thing that has crossed my mind is how much is climo built into the eps? The recurve is the heavyweight climo favored track with all canes born in the same place. Is climo partially responsible for the majority consensus at this range? I kinda doubt it but it's crossed my mind more than once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 based on cursory reading of this granted it's a little old, climatology is not a part of the pertubations http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.1942/full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 24 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I'll say the same thing I did during the Joaquin model war (which was much closer to game time than this)... do you trust the model that shows the nuke job with an unprecedented track, or the model that shows the climo solution (12z Euro)? I know people will respond with "But Sandy!!!!" but rare events are... rare. At any rate, this is a scary run. I'd likely lose everything... definitely rooting for OTS. Preparation for me would be booze and just waiting to see how many trees come down. Thats what I did during Irene. Lost one big oak tree- fell right towards the back of house but the top branches just scraped it. (I posted a photo in banter.) Lucked out. Irene tracked to my east- what the GFS is advertising would be many times worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I cant wait for the FV3 to come on line next year. Here is a pretty cool article about NOAA comparing it to the Euro during Harvey. They think it may end up being the best model in existence. The future of weather models is going to be something to behold. http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-provides-lab-us-forecast-experiments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I compared the gefs to the eps with the northern hemisphere panels. Looks like the primary difference that greatly affects the outcome is the WAR strength. Gefs is keying on a stronger WAR which slows the trough in the east. This causes the upstream ridge in Canada to be stronger because the war roadblocks things for a time. The eps is weaker with the war so the blocking ridge behind the trough in the east is too weak and too late to stop the recurve. The weaker WAR and ridge in canada provides an easy eacape hatch for Irma. I hope this makes sense because it's hard to describe. Use the northern hemisphere h5 anomaly panels on TT and compare the gefs and eps. It's easy to see visually but hard to put into words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 This is a cool map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Are Hurricanes of this size large enough to get Rosby wave like effects (ie Coriolis related mass excavation) tugging them west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, schinz said: ANother view of 18z GEFS Looks like a Spirograph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Well. That doesnt really give a lot of credence to a Mid Atlantic strike. Thank god! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: Well. That doesnt really give a lot of credence to a Mid Atlantic strike. Thank god! Yes but if you follow it ahead to where we assume it'll be early next week those that made it there have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: Well. That doesnt really give a lot of credence to a Mid Atlantic strike. Thank god! There's only 5 that tracked the same as Irma along the bahamas. 4 of them hit the US and one curved. Isabel being one of LF tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It kinda does because both the majors models have north east of Bahamas. Of the 5 o see on that map only one has a ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 25 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: This map is deceiving. Look at the current and well forecast track of Irma compared to all those "wide right" fish storms. Within the next 24 hours, Irma would have to switch to a NNW/NW track to verify half of those tracks. Irma is going W and won't make a turn for several more days. That rules those out. I'm not saying this is an EC hit of doom, but posting crap like that on SM is just as foolish as a 240 HR 18z GFS OP showing a landfall in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 26 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: That's like looking at a bunch of 6th grade report cards and where the people ended up professionally. Check again in high school, college, and grad school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: That's like looking at a bunch of 6th grade report cards and where the people ended up professionally. Check again in high school, college, and grad school. Ha! Well after my interpretation of it earlier I know what my grade level is at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, eurojosh said: That's like looking at a bunch of 6th grade report cards and where the people ended up professionally. Check again in high school, college, and grad school. Yeah I get that, it's just an interesting map I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Map does show how unusual the path is going to be with that SW movement for awhile... not much quite like it. Will be an interesting set of model runs tonight, fun read in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just seeing the 18z runs now. WTF GFS. At 12z you had a 947 mb low over DC, and at 18z you only brought a 958 mb low? If you're going to be the mid-Atlantic weenie model, you're going to have to try harder than that. Get it together for the 00z run. Seriously, I'm beginning to get a little worried for my beech tree as well. I think the GFS intensity is likely overdone (878 mb?) as the current version is reportedly known to overintensify tropical storms, and no other model is showing anything like that. It's remarkable how consistent the GFS has been over the last day or so, especially as the Euro and EPS play long wave roulette. I think the spread of solutions being shown by the Euro / EPS at this time frame is probably more realistic than the relatively narrow range of the GFS / GEFS. One thing I noticed about the EPS is that there are very few solutions that curve back to the west north of OBX. They either hit the southeast or go OTS. Stepping back and looking at the big picture, here are the mean tracks of various ensembles of ensembles over the last several 00z/12z runs. There appears to be a gradual trend towards a more western track. The 18z GEFS appears to have continued this trend. You can find out which ensembles are included in each of these tracks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Said last night I wanted to monitor forecasts of position at 24 hours. The 18z position was spot on wrt lat, and 1.2 degrees further west than predicted 24 hours earlier. No significance, just fun to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 NAM looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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