Bob Chill Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I know there's a long way to go and it was fantasy range and we don't even have a well defined system yet...but kinda embarrassing. I'll gladly root for a gulf landfall and have the trop system get absorbed into a ML trough. That can work here. GEFS has good agreement in strength and placement @ 120. Even with the crazy op runs recently, there wasn't much ens support. Biggest cluster was a scraper or offshore. Today is a new twist with the GEFS shifting towards a track through the GOM. Get a defined system into the GOM without hostile shear and crazy things can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Dude, that was an all timer of a slaughter by th Euro. GFS was crying in the locker room after that beat down. Agree. I'm about production, and a coastal scraper or landfalling cane (lol) ain't the best way to get it. Only problem with a GOM track right now is that I'm not confident 99L won't encounter a death march trying to get there. I tend not to care much about tracking development when something is thousands of miles away. OP runs will change quite a bit if it actually becomes a TS or cane. I know you know this. Just stating the obvious. UL pattern looks like crap on all guidance for an EC hit. May as well root for the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Dude, that was an all timer of a slaughter by th Euro. GFS was crying in the locker room after that beat down. Oh I never forget the GFS beatdowns, hence my avatar. I'll never forget that model run on 1/19/16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Saw this in the SNE tropical thread re the GFS: 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I would advise big caution with the GFS. The GFS has been generating just absurd amounts of PWATs that may be causing it to go James from latent heat due to convection. The NHC was actually against the GFS upgrade because of this from what I gather. It sounds like a really bad issue. ETA: Don't worry about the "go James"... thats a SNE thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Also from SNE tropical thread re updated GFS and NHC Just now, OceanStWx said: They called it "unacceptable" when recommendations were opened up to the various branches of the NWS. Sadly, the biggest loss of skill was in the short to medium range track/intensity errors in the Atlantic Basin. And not like small degradation, but like 10% loss of skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 At least with the gfs we can have a nice fantasy cane season with lots of action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'll take the day 11 op gfs track + remnants . A gully washer verbatim Yea, I kinda loved that run. Get the center to approach like that while bumping into a fropa and I'll call it a wrap for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I kinda loved that run. Get the center to approach like that while bumping into a fropa and I'll call it a wrap for the season. Looked a little Ivanish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 Feels like a repeat of the 2016/17 winter with tropical. GFS shows a fantasy storm at 10+ days but then loses it once it broaches 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 This has the feel of yet another dead season. With the Atlantic dead the east pac will pick back up. indeed, the gfs now shows another cane forming there. 1982/87 seem like good analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 7 hours ago, ldub23 said: This has the feel of yet another dead season. With the Atlantic dead the east pac will pick back up. indeed, the gfs now shows another cane forming there. 1982/87 seem like good analogs. Wouldn't surprise me if it is basically a lost season. And considering Bastardi is hyping tropical is probably the kiss of death. That being said I think the Atlantic is improved from what we were seeing just the last few weeks. Still don't like the pattern though for seeing any possible land falls north of OBX, if even that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 I guess now it's the EUROs turn....... With a tropical system close to the East Coast. Looks like it develops around hour 144 just north of Hispanola. Then, it intensifies it and tracks it towards the Carolinas. Let's see if it holds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 Looks as if the GFS is up its shenanigans again. It quickly deepens the possible hurricane in the southern gulf down to 959 mb's on the 06z run. Roughly the equivalent of a Cat 3 storm. Euro on the other hand has it down to 992 though it may be a little lower within the 24 hour frame I have access to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 Tropics are really heating up. 90L and 99L both have good shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think 90L is a lock. 99L not so much. Latest euro has a strung out POS that quietly rides along the WAR. Not really feeling 99L myself at this point. But lets see what we have in 4 days or so when it is passing the leewards before we pass judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Aaand we got Franklin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Crazy that we are on the F storm in August 7th. Although the lack of hurricanes reminds me of 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Might have to watch 99L once it gets north of PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Franklin seems like our first real candidate to achieve hurricane status. We'll see what recon finds today. The MDR has been hot in producing TSs but I think SAL has been working the waves too much. I think it'll turn around as climo kicks in but by then we'll have persistent troughing (read: fish city) in the east lol. If this were winter, 99L would be in the ground. Bury 99L already? CMC says it's game on for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Nothing inspires confidence in tropical cyclogenesis like the Canadian. It was the go to model during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Damn you, Euro. What a tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just like WINTER Looks like a front kicks it out at 192-204... no front and maybe landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Let's face it. We have a rough history with 99Ls lol. Yoda, I'm not too concerned about front existence/timing right now, but I think without a front or trough it would be a US threat. I agree... I was just saying that on this run the reason it doesn't become a NC threat is because a CF kicks it out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 It looks like the Euro drops an upper low out of Canada which then consequently lowers heights enough for it to recurve. Let's all remember that recurvature is HIGHLY favored. But interesting to see Euro back on board with development once it inches closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro keeps the potential of 99L developing alive, but there's a problem. I decided late last night to look at the overall steering pattern and it was unanimous that a front/trough would recurve anything that came toward the coast. That doesn't bode particularly well for any EC impacts aside from the Outer Banks potentially. Just another reason why I love big ridges in the summer. That crappy upper level pattern has been consistent on guidance for a couple weeks. The tradeoff is comfortable temps in the middle of the dog days. In my personal list of priorities, comfortable mid summer temps are always higher than canes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro keeps the potential of 99L developing alive, but there's a problem. I decided late last night to look at the overall steering pattern and it was unanimous that a front/trough would recurve anything that came toward the coast. That doesn't bode particularly well for any EC impacts aside from the Outer Banks potentially. Just another reason why I love big ridges in the summer. We pretty much knew going into tropical that the pattern didn't favor east coast impacts, especially north of OBX. But then again most years are like that anyway. I don't think I would rule out an impact south of OBX into Florida either. Though the troughiness has continually beaten down any possible ridging for the northern half of the east coast the deep south has actually had ridging build in on numerous occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: That crappy upper level pattern has been consistent on guidance for a couple weeks. The tradeoff is comfortable temps in the middle of the dog days. In my personal list of priorities, comfortable mid summer temps are always higher than canes. Amen! One of the more enjoyable summers I have ever experienced temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: (shrug) I know. It's the Mid-Atlantic. I'm just grateful that y'all indulge me as I write about tropical I know I'm never going to see. I'm trying to post less but it's a struggle. Why should you post less? It's not like you will break the board if you do post more. Besides there are some of us who enjoy your posts. I know myself I am a casual tropical fan so most times I don't look deeply into it but you do so you are helping this lazy man out with your in-depth posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 8, 2017 Share Posted August 8, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Dude, I'm addicted to tropical. I need help I think I do a good job of dispassionate posting on events, but behind all that I'm like a snow fiend just hoping for my next fix. My body woke me up at 3am to check the Euro on 99L! Not healthy Yea I'm eager for a big tropical event. Like an Allison or Isabel 2.0. Big event that we remember for a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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