eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Trough further north, more Euro-like so far. Eta- Irma also a touch slower through 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 881mb on TT Full res surface lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Wow, what a beast. Not sure GFS is going to bring her ashore, but that's a heck of a storm. Edit - 878 off Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS trend is the trough exiting faster and Irma a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 More separation between Irma and trough so far at 162.. WAR trying to nose in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Moving nnw at 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: More separation between Irma and trough so far at 162.. WAR trying to nose in. Does WAR stand for West Atlantic ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, eurojosh said: Moving nnw at 174. Yes, albeit slowly.. steering currents are lacking after the trough pulls out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, olafminesaw said: Does WAR stand for West Atlantic ridge? Good god, yes! What is it good for? Steering hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I have to be honest, I am a bit skeptical of these really low pressures the GFS runs have been is spitting out, I mean 878? wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wow said: GFS trend is the trough exiting faster and Irma a bit slower. Trough is less diggy and Atlantic HP further northeast. But, Irma is slower. So... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 It's def further south with Irma. Looks like a SE or MA hit one the ridge builds back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Hurricane Wilma bottomed out at 882mb, and the GFS somehow shows 878mb for Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Very different look to 6z. 24+hours slower, no trough to pull it in by the time it arrives. Could still come ashore, but if it does it will be for different reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Rtd208 said: I have to be honest, I am a bit skeptical of these really low pressures the GFS runs have been is spitting out, I mean 878? wow. Large storms have lower pressure for the wind speed i think? Even so, I agree, that takes perfect conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, KingJWx said: Hurricane Wilma bottomed out at 882mb, and the GFS somehow shows 878mb for Irma Don't believe it. Fake model news. At least at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 If that omega block near the lakes was right over the top it would crawl Irma inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 500mb pattern is different from previous runs, but the slow moving nature of the cyclone would allow for the WAR to take hold and eventually sent it on a slow, pain NNW progression. Should run along the NC coast and toward the Delmarva. Verbatim would be some of the worst beach erosion NC would ever see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Good God GFS is lovely. My kind of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Cape May roadtrip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 At 198, there's some trough interaction so the storm is destined for land right near mouth of bay. Going to be a monster hit for Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Good God GFS is lovely. My kind of storm. Yea man, a block right over the top would wreak havoc and that's a big understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If that omega block near the lakes was right over the top it would crawl Irma inland. I swear you're low key hacking these runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Bye bye Outer Banks, and Hampton Roads. And the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 In the Bay at 210. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I think next frame is D.C. Getting destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I doubt the New England troff just breaks apart like that. Look at the 355k PV field and you'll see what I mean. Irma basically says "Screw you guys I make my own steering" on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Oh man how I wish this run would verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I swear you're low key hacking these runs Russian hack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I swear you're low key hacking these runs If I could figure out the euro password I would do the same but it's not easy. The gfs password is password because of the FOIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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