Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think you enjoy model chaos than you do weather Probably. Lol The euro run is completely plausible as is the gfs. I agree about playing odds. Climo says the vast majority of hurricanes like this miss the US. We're more than just a couple days from ruling out a LF though. We'll see what the eps says then thr gefs and round and round we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The real fun starts when the eps shifts towards favoring a LF. Lol Flip the letters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Probably. Lol The euro run is completely plausible as is the gfs. I agree about playing odds. Climo says the vast majority of hurricanes like this miss the US. We're more than just a couple days from ruling out a LF though. We'll see what the eps says then thr gefs and round and round we go. What do you mean by LF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What do you mean by LF? Landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 EPS mean has 2 distinct camps...into SC or OTS. The spread starts at HR 132...the southern ENS tracks are all hits, the pertubations that deviate N are straight fish. Looks 60/40 landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: EPS mean has 2 distinct camps...into SC or OTS. The spread starts at HR 132...the southern ENS tracks are all hits, the pertubations that deviate N are straight fish. Looks 60/40 landfall. Sounds about the same as the 00z eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Euro is moving towards the GFS. Look at hr192 compared to the previous two runs, never mind the location of Irma. 3 runs ago: trough way West, no midatlantic HP. 2 runs ago: no trough, midatlantic HP way east Last run: trough similar to GFS, midatlantic HP about 750 miles NW of the previous run. No guarantees of course, but if that midatlantic HP moves West and south on the next run, I think we're playing ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 At least we can be comforted that the DGEX will settle this in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 HM on twitter believes this is a fish or NE scraper. He thinks any MA thread is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 How many did last run have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Hm is a idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: HM on twitter believes this is a fish or NE scraper. He thinks any MA thread is low. Stats wise he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Hm is a idiot Not Henry Marguisty (sp). Our HM...he's pretty good with sniffing stuff out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Hm is a idiot Different hm. HM referenced here is Anthony Masiello. Excellent long range met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Hm is a idiot Lol. Well, you may be right, but not this HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Oh ok. My bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 12z eps is pretty much the same for our purposes. Yea, it has a cluster into the SE but the mean and consensus very much supports the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Thing about euro run is it's almost wanted to get captured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 FWIW JMA is a Florida hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Yes it's has more or less came around to the the American camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Now maybe it sees things better now and gfs will change east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 maybe i'm wrong to think this, but based off history it seems that (unlike a noreaster) unless the center moves inland from NC south, we'll end up being on the weaker side. there would be coastal impacts, but i can think of a few systems that skirted the outer banks towards OC with very little impact towards the big cities. even though floyd and isabel were remnants, they were in a favorable position to impact us. i have a feeling that if we want to get something out of this we would need a carolina or south hit (not that i'm rooting for that, but just sayin'). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Levi is so good at explaining this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 A troff over New England clearly favors a fish storm. A lot can change this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Gfs running let's see if we get more doom porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs running let's see if we get more doom porn. Can't wait to see what the wind maps show for upstate new york! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Yup if you got em post em please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, 87storms said: maybe i'm wrong to think this, but based off history it seems that (unlike a noreaster) unless the center moves inland from NC south, we'll end up being on the weaker side. there would be coastal impacts, but i can think of a few systems that skirted the outer banks towards OC with very little impact towards the big cities. even though floyd and isabel were remnants, they were in a favorable position to impact us. i have a feeling that if we want to get something out of this we would need a carolina or south hit (not that i'm rooting for that, but just sayin'). Agree. You don't have to go further back than Sandy to see that being on the SW side of a tropical system around here isn't especially impressive. Hazel is the Carolina landfall that is the ticket around here, though the forward speed of that one also contributed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Agree. You don't have to go further back than Sandy to see that being on the SW side of a tropical system around here isn't especially impressive. Hazel is the Carolina landfall that is the ticket around here, though the forward speed of that one also contributed. That's true if its a TS or Cat 1. Not sure about that if 12z GFS verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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