Amped Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Okay euro and the GFS were different at 144. Now at 168 they look remarkably similar with the pattern. Euro is SW with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Wow, euro is further south and slower but I'm surprised how similar h5 is at hr168. Flat ridge is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Subtropics said: You're like anti wish casting. 20% odds of OBX is a joke lol Live and learn junior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO is way south of where GFS is at this time. edit: eh, not way. but enough to matter It's way south of 12Z yesterday at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The media hype is pretty buzz killing with this storm. Thank god to AmWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Big curve out of GA/FL @ 192. Almost due north of its position at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Euro is a fish...shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 192, a tutt in the Atlantic screwing up the ridging to the northeast kind of like joakin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Big curve out @ 192. Yes, turns North at 180 and NNE by 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro is a fish...shocker. It could turn back in later frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Not so sure this is going to be a fish at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks pretty gone and OTS at 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Yea, slower speed, no phase, and no ridge over the top. Only one way to go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Well we know how the story plays out from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 LOL, this is so much like how a snow storm thread reads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Well we know how the story plays out from here. Never a question according the DT , no way the American models will win this forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, frd said: Never a question according the DT , no way the American models will win this forecast He plays the odds and usually wins, but that man needs to learn spell check because his write-ups are god awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 FWIW, 240 has it brushing Cape Cod on its way to Canada. Massive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Guess it's over because the never wrong euro is never wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 A day ago it showed it going into gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Euro OP caved to it's ENS, 60% of which at 00z, showed a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: A day ago it showed it going into gulf 12 hours ago it showed landfall in South Carolina. But this run seems more consistent with what the EPS was showing. It will be interesting to see if they hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The odds will favor a recurve for days but the 12z euro is far from a deciding run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: He plays the odds and usually wins, but that man needs to learn spell check because his write-ups are god awful. LOL, you are correct . I admit I am eager to read about the hopefully upcoming MECS alerts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro OP caved to it's ENS, 60% of which at 00z, showed a fish. The real fun starts when the eps shifts towards favoring a LF. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro OP caved to it's ENS, 60% of which at 00z, showed a fish. So, bascially the ensembles dictated an outcome and this played out how many thought. the skill to the member ensemble suite vs the operational , was only a matter of time right . Question, will the ensembles reverse course or unlikely ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 things. The euro has gone toward a gfs solution. And 2 gfs has been more consistant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Seems to me that long range model biases are being ignored. I don't know the summer/hurricane biases of the models, but in my experience they seem to be prone to bringing strong tropical systems into the east coast at long range only to gradually move away from that at longer range. It's like in winter when the gfs shows a strong arctic push to the south we all know that it's almost always modeled too deep from long range, or that the euro is almost always overdone with troughing in the sw, or that the gfs will show ns vorts too far south and they usually end up well north. Is anyone considering just how unlikely it is that a cane that far north of PR ends up hitting the us? Not impossible but unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, frd said: So, bascially the ensembles dictated an outcome and this played out how many thought. the skill to the member ensemble suite vs the operational , was only a matter of time right . Question, will the ensembles reverse course or unlikely ? Personally, I think the ENS do not reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The real fun starts when the eps shifts towards favoring a LF. Lol I think you enjoy model chaos more than you do weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.