eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Same EPS that will likely change in a few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs is going to be good I think ..up to day 7 ...lots of ec hits incoming Likely. Still has at least one member that does a solid job on Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Gefs has the most spread in the last 3-4 runs. If anything the run takes several steps back in confidence level. Which is probably a good thing. Those tight clusters at d7+ leads don't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GEFS: So everything is still on the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The GFS would be the biggest disaster in my life time. And that is no joke. Delmarva would be destroyed and DC would be in deep deep trouble. The CMC isnt far off from the GFS either. We definitely need to be waching this one over the next week. Crazy actually. Edit: I should add biggest disaster for me personally. Having a house in both OC and the mountains. At least as modeled it would be a fast mover. But still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 NOAA G-IV flights starting on the 4th. How much you want to bet that flips everything to a fish? Not good for those wishing for a Eskimo Joe express when the GFS is the only model yelling for a landfall. OTS or tease is more favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The GFS would be the biggest disaster in my life time. And that is no joke. Delmarva would be destroyed and DC would be in deep deep trouble. The CMC isnt far off from the GFS either. We definitely need to be waching this one over the next week. Crazy actually. http://magicseaweed.com/Wildwood-Surf-Report/392/ I use this site a lot , and the surf forecasts are generated from over 22 models or more , usually pretty accurate, in this case of course take the forecast with a grain of salt . Not sure what the various models are based off ( GFS, ocean model, etc ) , maybe one the mets might know. Any way, the forecast it has for Wildwood, NJ , Cape May area is something I have never seen on this model in my 20 years of looking at the site. waves over 50 feet , what !!!!! Pretty amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Dm me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I don't think a cat 4 is congrats coming up the bay. A lot of homes would be destroyed.This far out there is no way any definitive statements can be made. No one is wishing for Cat 4 destruction. Just explaining what the run shows. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Can't for some reason. Oh well. Same thing for our area at landfall then when it moves over D.C.? If you already did my bad. Can also just PM it to me, don't need to spam with images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Here: 10m and 80m winds on hurricane models significantly undersell the winds. Don't believe me, look at what they are at initialization vs what they actually are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Here: 10m and 80m winds on hurricane models significantly undersell the winds. Don't believe me, look at what they are at initialization vs what they actually are. Figured that, they always look way too low. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: Here: 10m and 80m winds on hurricane models significantly undersell the winds. Don't believe me, look at what they are at initialization vs what they actually are. Can you show next frame for upstate ny please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Here: 10m and 80m winds on hurricane models significantly undersell the winds. Don't believe me, look at what they are at initialization vs what they actually are. That's beautiful. Move that into NOVA please and I'll volunteer the MD side of the Potomac as tribute. Too bad that's not a 60HR forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Upstate NY. Remember to reduce down by 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Also, for the DMV people. Remember 10% wind reduction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 So for upstate by wide spread 60 to 70 mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 10% it's a day day 8.5 forecast that could be 1000 miles off. Might as well start calculating snow ratios on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 All but 3 of the 12z hurricane models are pointed to the Carolinas. Bob Chill can probably swat me down, but it seems like between 55W - 60W is where the divergence happens with the OP/ENS of the globals. Seems like once Irma gets to that point, combined with the recon flights, we'll see that spread tighten up pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: All but 3 of the 12z hurricane models are pointed to the Carolinas. Bob Chill can probably swat me down, but it seems like between 55W - 60W is where the divergence happens with the OP/ENS of the globals. Seems like once Irma gets to that point, combined with the recon flights, we'll see that spread tighten up pretty quickly. I'm actually reluctantly becoming a believer that the possibility isn't as remote as I want to believe. I've been going through a mental checklist all day as to what I need to do each day if models start converging. Even a close scrape has implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Will be paying very close attention to the model spread as it starts to narrow over the next couple of days. The first GIV flight is my milepost to start gearing up if it doesn't change the goalposts. While the GFS OP is pure fantasyland stuff at this range, it is awfully insistent and it's enough to be a wake up call. Eyewall in SBY? Get outta here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm actually reluctantly becoming a believer that the possibility isn't as remote as I want to believe. I've been going through a mental checklist all day as to what I need to do each day if models start converging. Even a close scrape has implications. Yea I'm in the same boat. I'm in the "go big or go home" boat with this. Either we get Isabel 2.0 or nothing...none of this half-a$$ed 20mph and an inch of rain crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Euro nudged south this run. Islands get in the western eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Gfs and euro nearly identical through 96 with the imortant upper level feature placement over the atl and eastern conus. Eta: cmc is nearly identical too. Not bad for 96-120hr leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Trough stronger and digging more 120 on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 ECMWF now has a stronger cutoff low off the west coast. Don't know what the downstream impact will be. Main difference is it's southwest of the GFS with Irma, almost hits Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Everyone has seen the scenes out of east Texas, right? Still think 10% chance tops that this impacts anywhere from North Fla to OC. By impact I mean direct landfall. I guess I'd give the outer banks maybe a 20% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Everyone has seen the scenes out of east Texas, right? Still think 10% chance tops that this impacts anywhere from North Fla to OC. By impact I mean direct landfall. I guess I'd give the outer banks maybe a 20% chance. You're like anti wish casting. 20% odds of OBX is a joke lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 EURO is way south of where GFS is at this time. edit: eh, not way. but enough to matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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