H2O Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Goddammit. I hate when metfan makes a good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps has been flipping so much lately GEFS has been consistent on an east coast threat We shall see We're closing in time now so accuracy is improving. Eps has had back to back runs with a lot of recurves. Cmc ens the same. I'm just saying that until all 3 global ens look similar I'm not going to hug anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're closing in time now so accuracy is improving. Eps has had back to back runs with a lot of recurves. Cmc ens the same. I'm just saying that until all 3 global ens look similar I'm not going to hug anything. That said the CMC isn't exactly the crown jewel of accuracy I think you just need to give the masses what they want and say DC crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That said the CMC isn't exactly the crown jewel of accuracy I think you just need to give the masses what they want and say DC crush job. Ha! Of course I'm interested in the gefs but it's an outlier for now and never ignore climo in the med or long range. Our area is still in the game as are all locations on the EC and a whole bunch of fishies in the Atl. That's all I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 FWIW looking at previous model forecast points during the past few days, Irma has been moving a tiny bit faster than previously modeled. Emphasis on tiny. Latests models have Irma dead center on 45W by 00z tonight and 47.3/47.4W by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Really hadn't realized how consistent the GEFS has been over the last few days until looking just now. For those that believe in model trends all I can say is the GEFS is trending the right way on several of the key features. We have seen the Atlantic ridging slowly adjust south and west putting it in a better position to steer Irma west into the coast. The Midwest trough has progressively sharpened putting it in a better position to cut off. And the ridging to the west of the trough has strengthened and the key aspect here is we are now seeing it riding over top of the trough which would also help to induce a cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Good post @showmethesnow. Agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Borrowed this from SNE. Thanks @Ginx snewx Until this starts to resemble a gefs type solution it's hard to throw any eggs in any baskets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Gfs isn't wavering. Even more agressive with the trough in the east through 96. Going neutral earlier. Irma is a bump south. Extrapolating is fun and my wag is LF and a bit further south. Just a wag though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks like it wants to cut off again. 5-6 days until we know for certain what'll happen with the trough, and by then the storm track will be much more certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
93Blizzard Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Thanks for all the great analysis everyone, makes it easy to follow. I just have a question, what exactly is WAR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, 93Blizzard said: Thanks for all the great analysis everyone, makes it easy to follow. I just have a question, what exactly is WAR? Western atlantic ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I don't know... The Atlantic HP is much further north this run, less pressing. And the trough is digging less. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Could it landfall further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 897 mb at 162 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Appears to have lost its westward motion by 171. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Appears to have lost its westward motion by 171. 12-24 hrs slower, too. Looks like a step towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Yea, trough cuts off and retreats further north. Not going to do much pulling on Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Still headed for a ec hit though me thinks. BOS if you're lucky, I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 hmm, just kidding... doesn't look like it'll be further east. 500mb shows that some higher heights built in towards the east ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Treckasec said: hmm, just kidding... doesn't look like it'll be further east. 500mb shows that some higher heights built in towards the east ... It's just a matter of time before we're talking "stall". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: Further south I think Heights connecting at 186. You could be right. NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Heading NNW at 192. Still going to hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 What is also interesting to me is that this run is slower... At this time last run it made its near-Phili landfall. Might landfall in the same place again, just 12 hours off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 It'll be OCMD at 204 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: What is also interesting to me is that this run is slower... At this time last run it made its near-Phili landfall. Might landfall in the same place again, just 12 hours off. closer to us imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Crush job for our subforum at 207 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 CMC is a NC landfall, straight up the Chesapeake, left at the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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