showmethesnow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks like the 06Z GFS will be another weenie run for our region. Trough starts to capture Irma as it sits off of OBX @ 186hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS runs 926mb Irma 30-40 miles off of OC before taking it into southern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looks like the 06Z GFS will be another weenie run for our region. Trough starts to capture Irma as it sits off of OBX @ 186hr. Looks like NYC or New Jersey landfall this time on 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, BlueDXer75 said: Looks like NYC landfall this time on 06z GFS Landfall is in Jersey but NY would be on the upper right quadrant. Would be a hammering for that area for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 EPS is almost unanimously OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 @Bob Chill would approve of the GEFS mean. Right up the Chesapeake bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 EPS is almost unanimously OTS. Yep. The control run was the western outlier. The GFS unanimously hitting land and 85% of EURO members going OTS. Typical tropical model war incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 We aren't going to have any clear view for a few days at least. Windshield wipers continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Timing of the storm quite different on the op GFS and op Euro. GFS has storm at NC's latitude 00z Sunday and the euro has it landfalling in SC 00z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Day 7 differences are pretty glaring...EPS want nothing to do with the closed ULL. I'm certainly more of a winter weather weenie than tropical...if this was a snowstorm we were tracking I'd be concerned that the GEFS are out to lunch. EPS has a long way to go to show what the GEFS are portraying. Correct me if i'm wrong but the low heights over/south of Greenland seem to me the deciding factor in getting our ULL to close off that far south...shoving the WAR south allowing it to connect over the top? EPS 06z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I don't follow tropical like you all do, but that looks like a pretty tight spaghetti plot for a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 So are we at the point yet where we are taking this seriously for our area, rather than some funny model run? Just curious, for those who have lived here muuuuch longer than I, what was the last major tropical system to hit the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Too many OTS on the 00z EURO ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Too many OTS on the 00z EURO ens. The other day the Euro had a track into the Gulf....I am leaning on the consistency of the upper level features shown by the GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 My goodness that was a weenie gefs run, there are like 10 members that bring it right near us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The trend I see is euro headed to a gfs type solution. Or a meeting of the 2 in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, schinz said: The other day the Euro had a track into the Gulf....I am leaning on the consistency of the upper level features shown by the GFS at this point. I'm thinking we get a nasty tease from Irma while it scoots OTS. I want what the GFS is showing, but how many times have we been in this camp where the EURO schools the GFS on tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 25 minutes ago, supernovasky said: So are we at the point yet where we are taking this seriously for our area, rather than some funny model run? Just curious, for those who have lived here muuuuch longer than I, what was the last major tropical system to hit the area? Get it under 3 days, if not 2, then I will start taking it seriously. Until then I am just enjoying the show. Helps pass the time until we start tracking our first snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm thinking we get a nasty tease from Irma while it scoots OTS. I want what the GFS is showing, but how many times have we been in this camp where the EURO schools the GFS on tropical systems. I hope you correct....I have a house in Brigantine, NJ., a barrier island just North of Atlantic City, 1/2 block to the beach....scary solutions for places like that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Lol at some of you. Just a couple days ago the euro was more south and heading into the gulf while the GFS was coastal. Guess which caved? And now you are back to saying the euro will school the GFS again neither one has a total lock on this just yet and it's dumb to say otherwise. Ensembles are still too jumpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, H2O said: Lol at some of you. Just a couple days ago the euro was more south and heading into the gulf while the GFS was coastal. Guess which caved? And now you are back to saying the euro will school the GFS again neither one has a total lock on this just yet and it's dumb to say otherwise. Ensembles are still too jumpy Stop being so rational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: Stop being so rational. I'm sorry. I had coffee already so I was thinking clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Closer up view of 6z gefs. 210 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F210.html Impacts here on majority of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I'm with @WxWatcher007. The Canadian ens and Eps strongly favor a recurve. I won't think it's a real threat until all 3 global ens look similar. The gefs is too tight for the range were dealing with the last 3 runs. That's either remarkable skill or something ain't right. Take your pick. I'll go with the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: How I see this. We're at ~D9. 7-10 days out: storm speculation. Look at the guidance for UL, environment, and intensity trends. Not much stock in ops or ens. Not staying up for model runs. 4-6 days out: serious conversation. Increasing confidence in ens for 500h pattern while watching the ops a bit more for deterministic output. Staying up if trends look good. 1-3 days out: game time. Still a chance for a trend away from impact, but all IN. No sleep. Big truth with that last sentence if that is the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, H2O said: I'm sorry. I had coffee already so I was thinking clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm with @WxWatcher007. The Canadian ens and Eps strongly favor a recurve. I won't think it's a real threat until all 3 global ens look similar. The gefs is too tight for the range were dealing with the last 3 runs. That's either remarkable skill or something ain't right. Take your pick. I'll go with the latter. You don't think it's strange the model everyone is saying should be used to discredit the GFS right now because it is OTS was the GOM solution 72 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 IF the GEFS are going trend to an ots solution I would think we should see evidence in the next 24hr. EPS certainly superior but the GEFS do close things off at D6 and though not closed yet, the process starts at D4.5-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm with @WxWatcher007. The Canadian ens and Eps strongly favor a recurve. I won't think it's a real threat until all 3 global ens look similar. The gefs is too tight for the range were dealing with the last 3 runs. That's either remarkable skill or something ain't right. Take your pick. I'll go with the latter. Eps has been flipping so much lately GEFS has been consistent on an east coast threat We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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