WeSuck Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 What time do the ensembles come out? Tryig to keep my eyes open from falling asleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks to be 971 over finger lakes in my. What kinda wind with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I'm using 850mb winds. 10m and 80m undersell this thing, even from initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Thats last nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Those are from yesterday's 0z. Check the stamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I'll have the ensemble in like 10 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Can someone post surface wind speeds for western ny from weatherbell. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Also from the main Irma thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 ^ we're in the d9 cone. Haha. Looks nothing like 18z either. Jumpy gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Wow every single one shows a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: All but 4 give our region a heavy blow from Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: ^ we're in the d9 cone. Haha. Looks nothing like 18z either. Jump gefs Lol smokes us. At what point do you start thinking... maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I'm sorry guys. Moved to the mid-atlantic, killed snow, brought a category 4 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The 500mb mean is impressive at a long lead. No wonder there are so many hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Subtropics said: Lol smokes us. At what point do you start thinking... maybe? I've always been thinking maybe. I'm never active like this in the summer here. Significant events like this are like drugs. Gotta keep re-upping every 6 hours or I end up in withdrawal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The 500mb mean is impressive at a long lead. No wonder there are so many hits. We rarely get a shot at a big tropical event here. The upper air pattern may actually be able to pull it off. Only 9 days to go! Inside of 10 days is an important benchmark and we're still in the game! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: We rarely get a shot at a big tropical event here. The upper air pattern may actually be able to pull it off. Only 9 days to go! Inside of 10 days is an important benchmark and we're still in the game! Lol For sure. I'm keeping any expectations tempered but man, this is about as crazy as it gets right now with the look of the mean this far out. It certainly makes you wonder. That graphic is day 7 btw, so it's creeping into the beyond intrigued waters. Btw, the control is basically your dream run haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, MillvilleWx said: For sure. I'm keeping any expectations tempered but man, this is about as crazy as it gets right now with the look of the mean this far out. It certainly makes you wonder. That graphic is day 7 btw, so it's creeping into the beyond intrigued waters. Btw, the control is basically your dream run haha What's the control show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Subtropics said: What's the control show? Basically a cane screaming in from Atlantic that rides over IAD. Significant wind in the eastern quadrant. Would be an all timer verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Basically a cane screaming in from Atlantic that rides over IAD. Significant wind in the eastern quadrant. Would be an all timer verbatim Well dam. No words. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Last one for the night. Feeling a cold coming on and stupid sore throat. Gotta rest up for the long stretch ahead both work and for here. Here's the control. This is the Bob Chill special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I'm sorry guys. Moved to the mid-atlantic, killed snow, brought a category 4 hurricane. Pretty sure me moving to the area from Seattle with hopes and dreams of mega blizzards and sustained snowcover and cold killed winter. I'll thank you for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 @MillvilleWx Control run is completely acceptable. Would prefer central pressure at least in the low 960s but I'll hug the control for now until something better comes along. Might be the 0z euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Isabel was a cat 1 at landfall correct. Is this sting cat 4 at land fall ?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Isabel was a cat 1 at landfall correct. Is this sting cat 4 at land fall ? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Isabel was a Cat 2 at landfall in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Euro heading for the south east coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: Basically a cane screaming in from Atlantic that rides over IAD. Significant wind in the eastern quadrant. Would be an all timer verbatim I am praying very fervently to all of the weather gods for such an event. I WANT THAT WITH ALL MY HEART! I am now in total love with climate change and I am cheering it on with all of my heart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 0Z Euro operational has landfall just north of Charleston, SC in 10 days. However, Ensemble mean is east (off of SC coast) and there are many EPS members that have OTS track. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Couple of quick comments from last nights run. Anyone else notice the Hurricane that pops up 3-4 days later off the SE coast after Irma has left the scene? GFS has now shown it 3 of the last 4 runs. Still impressed with how deep the models want to drop the trough so early in the season. When a model continues to move back to a certain solution in the general pattern you have to question if the pattern itself argues for that solution. We have seen this several times where the GFS has moved away from the idea of a cutoff low @500 mb to our west only to move back to it in future runs. Euro has thrown out a couple of cutoffs as well and on its other runs we have seen some small hints of the possibility. Looks like fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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