MJO812 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Crazy seeing such a large number of SC and GA tracks. Those are very unusual and there's a while bunch of them. Gefs has a lot of consensus for a very strong WAR. Also a lot of phasing going on with the trough. Didn't see this GEFS run coming at all. More than just a little skeptical GEFS looks like the Euro and CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GEFS looks like the Euro and CMC That gefs run was suspect. Not a single member to the north of the op? And going from big spread run after run after run to a tightly clustered consensus track? I would be fall out of my chair shocked if 0z gefs looks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 When was the last time every ensemble showed a Cat 5 hurricane at range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: That gefs run was suspect. Not a single member to the north of the op? Wouldn't that make the op suspect rather than the other way round? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Wouldn't that make the op suspect rather than the other way round? I don't think so in this case at all. An OTS track is very much a possibility at this range. Any hurricane in the current location is favored to recurve. Gefs had zero. It has to be a blip. Every single ens suite from all the globals have had a solid number of ots tracks and suddenly the gefs lasers in on a ga/sc landfall. I'm not buying it. I'm not saying the gefs mean track isn't possible. Im just saying that the gefs didn't magically solve a question we won't know for many days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajb Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Wouldn't that make the op suspect rather than the other way round? I know next to nothing about this, but as I understand it, one of the ensemble members has exactly the same initial conditions as the op. The fact that it diverges so significantly from the op would indicate to me that there is something that the higher resolution is picking up on that lower resolution ensembles are missing, making the ensembles potentially less trustworthy. I'd appreciate hearing from those more expert than me on this, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, abergman said: I know next to nothing about this, but as I understand it, one of the ensemble members has exactly the same initial conditions as the op. The fact that it diverges so significantly from the op would indicate to me that there is something that the higher resolution is picking up on that lower resolution ensembles are missing, making the ensembles potentially less trustworthy. I'd appreciate hearing from those more expert than me on this, though. But at this range the ops higher res still wouldn't be perfectly accurate - so I'd think a range of lower res solutions might have more validity. Guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 A lot of agreement on the early model tracks for the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, eurojosh said: But at this range the ops higher res still wouldn't be perfectly accurate - so I'd think a range of lower res solutions might have more validity. Guess we'll see. The high resolution of the op can magnify errors out in time so small errors become big as the lead lengthens. Ensembles are lower resolution (I think the eps is high resolution but I'm not sure) but the skill comes from smoothing the mean of all the members. Mean track and amount of spread is a much better and more accurate tool once you get out to 4-5 day leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Man I forgot how late 00z models run. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Man, sure looks like the gfs is setting up for a phase at hr156. Might be speaking to early but it looks ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 21 minutes ago, eurojosh said: But at this range the ops higher res still wouldn't be perfectly accurate - so I'd think a range of lower res solutions might have more validity. Guess we'll see. Interesting points! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Yeah this is phasing at 168. Pretty sure NC (and us) are going to get crushed. Pressure in the 890s and strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, eurojosh said: A lot of agreement on the early model tracks for the next 5 days. None of them hit the Leewards. That's new! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS! GFS! GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Subtropics said: Yeah this is phasing at 168. Pretty sure NC (and us) are going to get crushed It sure looks like one of the nutty ens members that maul deep inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, mappy said: GFS! GFS! GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Remarkably similar, just more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It sure looks like one of the nutty ens members that maul deep inland I'd just like to step in at this point to remind us all that theres a reason we always say this hobby sucks. Ok, back to the 10 day gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Heading NNW at 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Subtropics said: Heading NNW at 180. Capture at 500mb level in that timeframe, looks like. Massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Remarkably similar, just more west. weaker trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Calling it now. This is a massive hit for the mid atlantic. It is captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Uh oh at 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Heading NNW again at 198. Looks bay bound. 910 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Subtropics said: Calling it now. This is a massive hit for the mid atlantic. It is captured. far northern Mid Atlantic maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: far northern Mid Atlantic maybe No... this is coming into Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: far northern Mid Atlantic maybe Nah it's going to bend into Maryland/Del/PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, yoda said: No... this is coming into Ocean City I think you mean Atlantic City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Maybe a hair too far north for us? Still, deserves a Delaware delagone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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