yoda Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: Also consider that the Euro, Canadian (usually cane happy) are pretty much not seeing this. Wouldn't put too much stock into the OP GFS at this point - it loves to spin up fantasy canes. I was not aware that the OP GFS does that... usually its the CMC/GGEM that spins up fantasy canes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 lol 12z GFS... stalls in the NW Bahamas as a major cane... hrs 216-300 ends up doing a drive-by just off of OBX in the high 940s/low 950s mb level as it stays just far enough offshore as it runs up the Eastern seaboard... another fun fantasy run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 11, 2017 Share Posted July 11, 2017 18z GFS caved and now shreds the storm like every other model including the GFS Para. Seems to have just been an initialization error. Funny how much difference starting with a slightly weaker mid level low made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 If we want canes Va needs to shift east about 200 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2017 Share Posted July 13, 2017 There's a first for everything. #2017ing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 14, 2017 Share Posted July 14, 2017 15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'll just leave this here. 15 hours ago, H2O said: If we want canes Va needs to shift east about 200 miles 15 hours ago, Kmlwx said: There's a first for everything. #2017ing Some of the public responses in there are lol/cringeworthy. "Isabel hit us hard so this map is wrong." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 What a boring stretch. So much for my thoughts a few weeks ago that we would probably have some things to track. The relaxing of the strong northerly flow off the African coast that the models were advertising never really occurred. It continues to play He!! with the disturbances coming off the continent. And looking at the models isn't encouraging for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 LOL - the 18z CFS (lol I know) has a tropical system coming up the coast and then hooking in right around the Delmarva. We'd all pay to see that outcome. Only 700+ hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted July 25, 2017 Share Posted July 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You should be banned for this post of excessive desperation. Might not be as desperate as it looks. Can't rule out seeing something try to pop in the NE Gulf or off the SE coast next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: You should be banned for this post of excessive desperation. I'm going crazy waiting for a region-wide awesome weather event to happen. And winter is too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just looked. I see what you're saying. The major ops have had something weak spinning up along what looks like a stalled boundary in a few days. Problem is, I don't see much in the way of a mechanism to get it to ride inland. Also seeing some potential for another wave to pop in the MDR. Need to see more consistently before jumping in on either. Tropical ain't the way to the promised land bud Though nothing has changed my mind about an active season. You want your cake and eat it too? But as far as your mechanism I think we do though it would favor a South East impact but probably not up to our latitude. Anything that potentially spins up doesn't look as if it would go anywhere fast which would give it time to be influenced by the building southeast ridging later in the period that the GFS has been showing for at least a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted July 26, 2017 Share Posted July 26, 2017 The overnight run of the CMC pops something early next week off the SE coast but allows it to escape as it doesn't have the Atlantic ridging building that GFS runs have shown. The 06Z GFS also pops a little something and that too allows it to escape as it loses the building ridge from prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 Maybe we'll luck how and Emily will somehow make a hard left hook back into the Mid Atlantic. A man can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: LOL don't count on it Still liking where we're going in terms of the season overall. Would love an Isabel 2.0 with twice as much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 I'm thirsty for some tropical excitement locally. I'd be fine with remnants even with TOR risk. Just anything - the heavy rain event was a nice break from the boring weather, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Emily has a really nice inner core. Love seeing a tight circulation on radar. Depending on how quickly it moves over Florida, that could bode well for strengthening off the east coast. Just excited to get some more GOES-16 action. Next ETA: Tropical Storm Emily Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1110 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM EMILY MAKES LANDFALL ON ANNA MARIA ISLAND... NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate that Tropical Storm Emily made landfall at 1045 AM EDT (1445 UTC) on Anna Maria Island, just west of Bradenton, Florida. SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 82.7W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM NW OF BRADENTON FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 Sorry WxWatcher... from 11 AM Emily disco: After emerging off of the east-central Florida on Tuesday, some slow re- strengthening is forecast on days 2-3 when Emily will be moving over SSTs of 28C and the vertical wind shear will shift from northwesterly to southwesterly and decrease to 10-15 kt. By 96 h, the shear is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt, which should keep the intensity steady or induce slight weakening until Emily dissipates in about 120 h. Since Emily is not expected to regain tropical storm status before it moves offshore of the Florida east coast Tuesday morning, no watches or warnings are required for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Next.... two weeks from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It's August 1 and we've had 5 named storms lol. We can wait. Stats like that mean nothing. We've had no flooding rains, flooding tides, and widespread wind damage. Complete DISASTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 On 8/1/2017 at 2:42 PM, Bob Chill said: Stats like that mean nothing. We've had no flooding rains, flooding tides, and widespread wind damage. Complete DISASTER I'm just waiting for another 20 storm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 500 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a vigorous tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 70% 5 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Let us hope the new GFS isn't the Canadian of old It is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for this system to consolidate and develop during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the central and eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche through the middle of next week, where environmental conditions appear conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 00z and 06z GFS still printing out their weenie solutions for the Invest 99L... 00z GFS landfall in GA/SC and then comes up to hit us... 06z GFS is a coastal grazer. This is all in the Day 10-12 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Yep total cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 How close have we come in the models to have something whiff by or dissipate all together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, iFred said: How close have we come in the models to have something whiff by or dissipate all together? For tropical it's becoming an annual ritual for this region... though at least this one caved 12 days out rather than 12 hours (Joaquin lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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