The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

[BTRWx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This could actually save the conus from a direct hit. I know you know this but it's worth discussing. If I was running a book I would be hedging no landfall. Without the capture the gfs was a total OTS solution and it was evident fairly early on with the jump north in track. 

 

On the other hand....the fact that ops are being fairly consistent with having some sort of weakness or closed ull in the east, the door remains open for a less common track. Weren't many phase/captures on the eps from what I could see. The intricate timing and feature placement required for a phase or even a westward tug won't be accurately modeled for 5 days at the absolute earliest though. 

That's more like the Bob I don't really know!

[ErinInTheSky]

Here's the last frame before landfall.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 minutes ago, Redmorninglight said:

Gloria with 2017 ocean temperatures. 

I'm mainly referring to track.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Definitely agree. I'm still solidly at 30% landfall odds. 

I have a hunch that an OTS trend will continue to gain consensus. It's starting to feel that way to me at least. If some sort of disruption or weakening happens while Irma approaches and passes the Bahamas then guidance could be too far north and the track could shift to the southern side of the envelope . A powerhouse will do everything it can to gain latitude. 

Many east coast surfers will be using vacation time coming up. No doubt about that. Haha

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I have a hunch that an OTS trend will continue to gain consensus. It's starting to feel that way to me at least. If some sort of disruption or weakening happens while Irma approaches and passes the Bahamas then guidance could be too far north and the track could shift to the southern side of the envelope . A powerhouse will do everything it can to gain latitude. 

Many east coast surfers will be using vacation time coming up. No doubt about that. Haha

I'm right there with you Bob.  I've watched these things for years, and, though not 100%, these seem to follow a pattern:  actual position ends up slightly north of predicted after a day or two, the cone keeps moving slightly north, and before you know it, they're screaming north.  Seems the really strong ones (early strong as well), jus say " I'M GOING NORTH" lol.  I have no idea why, just seems like they do.  Of course there are exceptions.  Hugo is the one that stands out for me, and of course Isabel.

[ErinInTheSky]

So how about the ensemble...

 

[yoda]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I have a hunch that an OTS trend will continue to gain consensus. It's starting to feel that way to me at least. If some sort of disruption or weakening happens while Irma approaches and passes the Bahamas then guidance could be too far north and the track could shift to the southern side of the envelope . A powerhouse will do everything it can to gain latitude. 

Many east coast surfers will be using vacation time coming up. No doubt about that. Haha

18z GEFS members show like 2 OTS tracks lol... and they are all over FL to SC

[Rtd208]

37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Remember yesterday when I said everyone from NO to Canada would get some model love before this is all said and done?

Congrats Manhattan! 

Tune in at ~12:30am tonight to see which wx weenies hit the jackpot next! 

Pat I would like to buy a vowel. Wheel of misfortune.

[eurojosh]

The ad on my screen is LOL.

 

 

[WeSuck]

4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So how about the ensemble...

 

This is an amazing diversion from earlier. The windshield wiping continues. This is the type of track (Center line) that could realistically bring in a cat 4 or so into the coast. But when was the last time GA took it on the chin?....

[Wonderdog]

What ever is forcing the landfall on the 18z seems to be more pronounced that at 12z. The hurricane seems to be oriented closer to the coast throughout its northward trek than 12z.

[Bob Chill]

Gefs obviously ordered shots of tequila for happy hour. 

[Bob Chill]

Crazy seeing such a large number of SC and GA tracks. Those are very unusual and there's a while bunch of them. Gefs has a lot of consensus for a very strong WAR. Also a lot of phasing going on with the trough. Didn't see this GEFS run coming at all. More than just a little skeptical

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'll post this so we can have a record to compare at this time tomorrow (if I can remember with all the college football going on).  I'm really interested in seeing how the 24 and 36 hour positions compare with what actually occurs

Well, I'm trying to post a picture...there's a problem, lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
2100 UTC FRI SEP 01 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  39.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE  60SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  39.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  38.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.9N  40.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N  43.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N  45.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.2N  47.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.4N  52.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.0N  56.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N  61.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  39.1W

[Wonderdog]

I remember a few days ago Bob Chill was weenie hoping for an entry up the Chesapeake. How does he do that?

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, BTRWx said:

I think someone mentioned that early strengthening can force a re-curve. (Was that you?) I'd think that idea would also go with a stronger system generally.

I know I've read that in here before that in general a stronger cape verde storm is more likely to recurve earlier as its affected by different steering currents than a weaker storm would be, or something to that effect. I don't really understand the meteorology of it but someone can set me straight if I'm wrong.

[Casualbrain]

Forget hurricanes - I want a blizzard

[ThePhotoGuy]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Many east coast surfers will be using vacation time coming up. No doubt about that. Haha

I was thinking the same thing. I am going to the Outer Banks next weekend. Hoping for an out to see track. Would be pretty cool to see the surf with out to sea track. 

[Bob Chill]

Those 18z member panels @losetoa6 are great. I had a hunch that there were a lot of tugs and phases and the track cluster wasn't just a byproduct of a strong WAR. 

The implication of the gefs evolutions is pretty crazy. Sustained hurricane force winds and a massive wind field 100's of miles inland...woah.

[olafminesaw]

Just to check off the Miami destruction option.

[SnowLover22]

34 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Just to check off the Miami destruction option.

  

what is this from

[yoda]

Just now, Philadelphia Snow said:

  

what is this from

https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/usa-east/m12_sea-level-pressure/20170911-0600z.html

You can play around with the parameters to the left of the map

[SnowLover22]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/usa-east/m12_sea-level-pressure/20170911-0600z.html

You can play around with the parameters to the left of the map

btw weird glitch I assume you noticed it.

[yoda]

Sorry @olafminesaw, I like Member 12 at Sat, Sept 11th at 1 AM

 

[yoda]

For fun of course... but damn this would be fun if Member 12 of the 18z GEFS were right:

 

 

[yoda]

Bob would get his wish with that ensemble member of having the "eye" pass over him

[yoda]

Yikes

 

[Bob Chill]

57 minutes ago, yoda said:

Bob would get his wish with that ensemble member of having the "eye" pass over him

Now we're talkin. I could get a quick dog walk in between devastation and destruction. 

[olafminesaw]

 

1 hour ago, yoda said:

For fun of course... but damn this would be fun if Member 12 of the 18z GEFS were right:

 

 

 

 

I wonder how long DC would lose power for in that scenario.