ErinInTheSky Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Tracks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, nflwxman said: Really unprecedented MSLP agreement at Day 8 on GEFS. After that, the 3 camps still remain- Florida (30%), near SC to VA (20%), SNE (20%), and OTS (30%) so others can see what you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Tracks: Interesting to note a few "pure captures" in there. That's a new wrinkle in the GEFS even if it's not really plausible at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Tracks: Haha anyone else notice the weenie capture for an OCMD landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I'm waiting for this website to update for the 12z GEFS run -- http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/ Its really cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Mean track will get a lot of peoples attention from OBX to ME ETA: I tried to link the 12z spaghetti and mean track from TT but a cached image is showing up as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Mean track will get a lot of peoples attention from OBX to ME ETA: I tried to link the 12z spaghetti and mean track from TT but a cached image is showing up as usual. This? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: This? I assume the black line near middle is the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: I assume the black line near middle is the mean? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Here's what you've all been waiting for - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Def looks like a US landfall coming based off 192 hrs on 12z EURO at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 GFS and Euro upper air pattern at 192 are remarkably similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro and gfs are unusually similar with strength and placement of the important features. That hp right over the top at hr192 will stop a recurve like the gfs. First time we've had agreement like this at range. Eta: ninja'd by nfl but he included pretty pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Worth a thousand words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 feel free to delete if need be - shows differences between previous run. clear west shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Even the same weak ull low in the deep south is showing up on the euro. The entire setup yells landfall of a very intense hurricane. Scary run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Even the same weak ull low in the deep south is showing up on the euro. The entire setup yells landfall of a very intense hurricane. Scary run yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Irma is moving N after 216... uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Worth a thousand words... I can think of 2. holy sh.t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I guess if we wanted to weenie out on the 12z EURO run... looks like SC/NC landfall after 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Even the same weak ull low in the deep south is showing up on the euro. The entire setup yells landfall of a very intense hurricane. Scary run I was literally going to say the same thing. I'm looking for the similarities in the globals and that stands out. A better linking ridge on Euro keeps system on a more west of north trajectory leading to FL getting the dirty. EPS should be pretty nasty for Bahamas and SE US. That ridge is something else. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 This would be a landfall in SC probably and an inland track after. Just enough pull in the upper levels for that. Woah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 But even that weak ULL on the euro is stronger than the GFS which lets the ATL ridge be stronger and that in turn points Irma more to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 No words... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I was literally going to say the same thing. I'm looking for the similarities in the globals and that stands out. A better linking ridge on Euro keeps system on a more west of north trajectory leading to FL getting the dirty. EPS should be pretty nasty for Bahamas and SE US. That ridge is something else. Edit: FL avoids landfall but intense western quadrant leads to screaming northerlies up and down the coast. Major erosion for them and now SC/NC under the gun. Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk In the main forum I was comparing this to Floyd. That was also supposed to make landfall in FL but slowed down and veered north into NC. If it had made landfall in FL earlier it would have been much stronger- it was 155 mph when it was down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Hot hot hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I know it's 10 (or more) days out, but looking over the runs for the last couple of days as a giant ensemble, there seems to be a pretty good signal for a southeast US landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This would be a landfall in SC probably and an inland track after. Just enough pull in the upper levels for that. Woah... Would be a pretty high impact event for us even if it landfalled in SC/NC....I imagine it would still be a decent TS at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Would be a pretty high impact event for us even if it landfalled in SC/NC....I imagine it would still be a decent TS at our latitude. If there is any kind of phase (even partial) the windfield would expand and forward speed would likely quickly accelerate as the storm gains latitude. Depends on a lot of things of course but that general progression would be something to consider. Just spit balling but if a cat 3 storm makes landfall and accelerates, it would leave quite a mess in its wake. The eps generally supports the op at d10 so the 12z eps is going to likely generate a lot of chatter here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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