Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, mappy said: True. but between that weak ULL and the ridge, there isn't many directions Irma can go... Looks like due north into the ridge and no landfall near or south of us on the run but that means little. GEFS should give more insight in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 SNE gets destroyed this run. Historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Seconding what Bob said. It's a titantic battle between a supercharged hurricane and an alpha N Atlantic ridge. A strong hurricane can certainly bully a ridge, but who blinks first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The moral of the story is that all roads lead to DC. There are many ways to bring Irma in. Via capture or ridge, and probably another way that is yet unprecedented. The placement is uncanny to the extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 could y'all imagine if this was winter?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 This would be such an anomalous outcome for a hurricane to be moving that slowly north of our latitude. It takes a whole day for it go from off VA Beach to RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I'm with Bob. I'm interested in GEFS after this run. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: could y'all imagine if this was winter?! Hah, well we'd all be yelling at eachother about analyzing any operational or ensemble at 200 hours out. However, the scale and scope of this is so much higher than a snowstorm, so I have little problem with the media and meteorologists in general mentioning the possibility. As depicted, i'm surprised the GFS did not slam this thing into South Carolina or Wallops. That ridge is pretty freakin stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 A bit breezy for RI and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, nflwxman said: Hah, well we'd all be yelling at eachother about analyzing any operational or ensemble at 200 hours out. However, this scale and scope of this is so much higher than a snowstorm, so I have little problem with the media and meteorologists and general mentioning the possibility. Oh i know. the suicides as we watch this beautiful storm pass us and nail SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I imagine the surge here would be crazy right? Strong and large storm over water for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I imagine the surge here would be crazy right? Strong and large storm over water for a long time. LGA would be underwater from the surge down the Sound, I expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, eurojosh said: LGA would be underwater from the surge down the Sound, I expect. So would Long Beach and JFK also perhaps, they flood with storms even passing to their east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The best way to keep long range op runs in perspective is to treat them as nothing more important than a single ens member. The 12z op was similar to several ens members. 6z GEFS was the most bullish for a US landfall than any previous ens run. That's why I'm really interested in the 12z GEFS. If it trends again towards a higher likelihood of a US impact then the plot thickens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 If this solution played out verbatim (of course it's not), SNE would be crying watching Irma spin herself below hurricane strength before landfall over colder waters on its slow trip up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 CMC hr240 is a really fun panel to extrapolate....lol. Supports the beast ridge to the N that the GFS had and also a weak ULL in the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Is it bad that I am already pressing F5 to see the 12z GEFS ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Is it bad that I am already pressing F5 to see the 12z GEFS ensembles? No. But it's appalling that I'm already pressing F5 to see the NAVGEM op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Heh, GEFS shifted quite a bit south and little west from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 More support for weakness @ h5 in the deep south and a much more threatening track envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Hard to extrapolate the 12z GEFS to equal a fish, but big storms can fight their way through ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, nflwxman said: Hard to extrapolate the 12z GEFS to equal a fish, but big storms can fight their way through ridges. No doubt. A lot of landfalls mixed in the members. A cluster into FL this run too. We seeing some convergence with the EPS and GEFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Lol looks like a lot of big hits on the GEFS with impacts up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: More support for weakness @ h5 in the deep south and a much more threatening track envelope. Just to make sure I am seeing/learning this correctly... the 12z GEFS h5 map posted above is more threatening than the 06z run. yes? Or about the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Just to make sure I am seeing/learning this correctly... the 12z GEFS h5 map posted above is more threatening than the 06z run. yes? Or about the same? Threatening over a much larger area for sure. FL-ME is in the game but the twist is a significant shift of ens members putting FL under the gun. It's not just a couple. Spaghetti tracks should be fun to look at. They're going to scare a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Just to make sure I am seeing/learning this correctly... the 12z GEFS h5 map posted above is more threatening than the 06z run. yes? Or about the same? I think more threatening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Subtropics said: Lol looks like a lot of big hits on the GEFS with impacts up this way. Where do you find those that quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 OTS looks to now be in the minority. That cluster in PA/NY already thrashed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Really unprecedented MSLP agreement at Day 8 on GEFS. After that, the 3 camps still remain- Florida (30%), near SC to VA (20%), SNE (20%), and OTS (30%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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