Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 40 minutes ago, schinz said: I don't ask this to, in ANY way, to compare Irma and Sandy, but could someone explain why the high pressure building in after the frontal passage could not turn an Irma moving due North back to the East coast as happened with Sandy? It seems the discussion centers around a hit or a turn and out. Is a Sandy type track on the the table or is the "set up" totally different? Thanks. Sandy was really unique with a capture and phase. That's why the storm took such an unusual track. It got absorbed into a powerful cold front/upper level low (up to 4' of snow in WV). Sandy was much later in the year too so the type of phase that happened isn't likely in early September. However, we are seeing some op models show phasing possibilities right now. Sorta like a "Sandy Lite". All hinges on what happens with the trough approaching the east coast down the line. If the trough closes off south of us then things get really interesting. That's something we can't really discuss in detail for a while though. It's also a low odds proposition because not only do we need h5 to close off, it all needs to happen at the right time and right latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 GFS introduces a new ULL over the lakes around hr114, deepens the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Sure looks like this is the closest that the GFS and Euro have been with the atl ridge and eastern trough. I can't see any glaring differences with the large scale features through hr132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Stronger ridge with a deeper trough. Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Sandy surface. . That is obscene. A landfall in the NE would bring on a lot of comparisons to Sandy, but Sandy was such a truly unique storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Sandy was really unique with a capture and phase. That's why the storm took such an unusual track. It got absorbed into a powerful cold front/upper level low (up to 4' of snow in WV). Sandy was much later in the year too so the type of phase that happened isn't likely in early September. However, we are seeing some op models show phasing possibilities right now. Sorta like a "Sandy Lite". All hinges on what happens with the trough approaching the east coast down the line. If the trough closes off south of us then things get really interesting. That's something we can't really discuss in detail for a while though. It's also a low odds proposition because not only do we need h5 to close off, it all needs to happen at the right time and right latitude. What about a comparison to the 1821 Hurricane or the 1893 Hurricane? Do those seem more likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, eurojosh said: Moving West at 180hrs... this could be ugly. The trough is lifting out quicker than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: Moving West at 180hrs... this could be ugly. ugly how? there is a weakness between the trough and ridge, giving Irma a path, which would be off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 It missed the trough. It's going to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: ugly how? there is a weakness between the trough and ridge, giving Irma a path, which would be off the coast. Yeah, I deleted my post because it was (a) premature and (b) inaccurate. Memo to self - let the damn run play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 LOL ridge extends back west at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, eurojosh said: Moving West at 180hrs... this could be ugly. The trough is lifting out quicker than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Noticeable shifting of the higher heights into the northern Atlantic. Better initial placement of Irma through the Caribbean. Trough is withdrawing northward quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 While this is just one op run 9 days in advance, it looks very similar to some of the earlier euro operationals (that sent Irma into the gulf). The trough is too weak to be recognized by the storm and the alpha N ATL ridge seems to be primary steering mechanism into the mid range (but she's moving quite slow at 192). The secondary ridge diving down from the upper midwest could actually block her from going OTS if progressive enough. The only take away I get from this run is that the trough is trending weaker the last 3 runs. OF NOTE: it is still early September. Any strongly modeled cold trough is probably overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 This particular run hinges on HP north of New England to steer things. Much different than 0z but an interesting run. Looks similar to the EPS MSLP panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Oh man. that ridge does some weird things. Irma has no where to go but west at 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Slowly moving NNW from 198 to 210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro and GFS generally in agreement as of 12z. There is nothing to really sweep it out to sea. It could linger for sometime waiting for the next ridge or trough. That's a crazy area for something like this be stuck over considering the SSTs in the range of 28-29C or higher in some areas. That is apparent in the modeled pressure of 905mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Heh...that little bag in the deep south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 CMC at the end of its run... So I can comment - at 210hrs was faster than, but close to, what GFS shows at the same time. Came within a gnat's crotchet of Orlando then made a sudden swing north, and seems to be heading for a SC scrape at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Heading NNW at 216 with ridge building back stronger. 910 MB and strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 This thing is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I guess at this point a further south track in the mid range means higher odds of landfall somewhere in the US, and beyond that is a crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Heh...that little bag in the deep south... so new ULL earlier to keep ridge west, and now potentially a new one to pull it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, olafminesaw said: I guess at this point a further south track in the mid range means higher odds of landfall somewhere in the US, and beyond that is a crap shoot. Yes, also the further south, the less interaction with synoptic steering features to the north. Hence why she crawls for 2 days in boiling hot gulf stream water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: I guess at this point a further south track in the mid range means higher odds of landfall somewhere in the US, and beyond that is a crap shoot. It kind of reminds me of a Harvey over the ocean. That would be nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, mappy said: so new ULL earlier to keep ridge west, and now potentially a new one to pull it in? It's super weak so it won't have a magnetic effect. It would just offer less resistance to westerly movement. The blocking HP over the top is what's hindering the easy recurve. The whole setup puts landfall risk on the table even if the run doesn't do it. Another model run and another interesting thing to ponder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's super weak so it won't have a magnetic effect. It would just offer less resistance to westerly movement. The blocking HP over the top is what's hindering the easy recurve. The whole setup put landfall risk on the table even if the run doesn't do it. Another model run and another interesting thing to ponder. True. but between that weak ULL and the ridge, there isn't many directions Irma can go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 That wind field though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.