Eskimo Joe Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 As much as I want this right up the Chesapeake, this'll somehow wind up a fish. It's how our luck seems to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: As much as I want this right up the Chesapeake, this'll somehow wind up a fish. It's how our luck seems to work. 1933 will occur again. Will it be 2017? Probably not but it will happen again and it would be quite a scene to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 NHC says the earliest that recon goes in is 9/3. Folks need to step away and enjoy the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Climatology says this is a likely fish, but it is important to note that it's likely to pass through Herbert's box, which will shift climatology a bit there. There is pretty strong consensus on that happening. The ensemble forecast for the Euro shows just how wide ranging the solutions are right now. Remember folks, there's a reason the NHC doesn't forecast past 120h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, mappy said: lot of definitive statements being thrown around all over the place (not so much here in this thread). Main tropical thread is lol. Twitter is lol. News is lol. That is part of the problem, some people see one model run and take as gospel. No one should be making any definitive statements at this point since alot can happen over the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: It makes my head hurt. People hanging on d10+ deterministic solutions and intensity guidance Edit: oh, and people reflexively crapping on the potential just because it's at long range. Part of the enjoyment for me in model tracking is watching how the models evolve from their longer range projections to what actually verifies at game time. You get to learn models tendencies and bias' and you can get a feel of where they may be going with the final solution. But to take 10+ day output as set in stone will get you burned just about every time. Learned this the hard way through 2+ decades of following 10+ day blizzards only to have it verify as sunny and in the 60's. At this point, irregardless of what the 00Z Euro and the 06Z GFS show, I still think we are very much in the game with almost all options still on the table. IMO about the only option I see quickly slipping away is a Gulf entry. Though I could still see it possibly making it into the Gulf but via an overland Florida route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I think honesty I should just get my information from you guys for now on. A lot less taking 10 day+ model runs as gospel. For what we do know so far there is fairly solid agreement that the hurricane will come close to the Leeward islands. What happens after that is anyone's guess imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Obviously all options are on the table . But this could be a case where it takes a track similar to Gloria in 1985. Scares the hell out of a lot of people. major beach erosion and big waves but no landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherCCB said: Obviously all options are on the table . But this could be a case where it takes a track similar to Gloria in 1985. Scares the hell out of a lot of people. major beach erosion and big waves but no landfall. Didn't Gloria landfall on long island, or were you just referring to our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Didn't Gloria landfall on long island, or were you just referring to our area? 9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Didn't Gloria landfall on long island, or were you just referring to our area? Yes I was referring our areas , Maryland ,Virginia. Yes it did make landfall . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I'm surprised there wasn't more talk about the 6z gefs. It seems like everyone is focused on the op which is crazy. GEFS mean panels are much more ominous than ANY previous GEFS run. Weakness in the h5 pattern shows up pretty clearly. The gefs mean shows increasing odds at either a US LF or a VERY close pass EPS mean for the same period shows a similar but less pronounced weakness in the UL pattern to the NW of the storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm surprised there wasn't more talk about the 6z gefs. It seems like everyone is focused on the op which is crazy. GEFS mean panels are much more ominous than ANY previous GEFS run. Weakness in the h5 pattern shows up pretty clearly. The gefs mean shows increasing odds at either a US LF or a VERY close pass EPS mean for the same period shows a similar but less pronounced weakness in the UL pattern to the NW of the storm: jbenedet brought these up in the main thread but it seems everyone ignored it to dub Irma a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Irma really starting to look ominous. Check out the pinhole eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 EPS MSLP panel shows it even more clearly. HP draped over the top. This panel also shows potential for an EC landfall or very close pass as HP to the north slides eastward. My total WAG (and that's all anyone has at this lead) is that Irma is going to probably at least pass pretty close to the conus before turning eastward somewhere in the mid-latitudes. For the center to pass to our west with an EC landfall, the only easy way is some sort of partial or full phase. While that's on the table it's probably pretty low on the prob scale because the timing of discrete features has to hit just right. Probably be at least 4-5 days before we can start to hug or rule out that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: jbenedet brought these up in the main thread but it seems everyone ignored it to dub Irma a fish. That thread is terrible. I went there last night and had to slowly walk backwards and close the door gently. I like our thread because it focuses on the most important place. Our yards. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalBecs said: Irma really starting to look ominous. Check out the pinhole eye Concentric eyewalls. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Peeked at the ENS. Agreement is nuts until 192 or so. Then it's a bit of a mess. Couple would make tropical weenies here pretty happy. Florida camp, NY camp as well. Gonna be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS MSLP panel shows it even more clearly. HP draped over the top. This panel also shows potential for an EC landfall or very close pass as HP to the north slides eastward. My total WAG (and that's all anyone has at this lead) is that Irma is going to probably at least pass pretty close to the conus before turning eastward somewhere in the mid-latitudes. For the center to pass to our west with an EC landfall, the only easy way is some sort of partial or full phase. While that's on the table it's probably pretty low on the prob scale because the timing of discrete features has to hit just right. Probably be at least 4-5 days before we can start to hug or rule out that solution. I sort of feel the same way that's why mentioned Gloria. Should be exciting times coming up though and you're right about the other thread there's a lot of misnformation being passed around . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherCCB said: I sort of feel the same way that's why mentioned Gloria. Should be exciting times coming up though and you're right about the other thread there's a lot of misnformation being passed around . If the windfield and storm is a big as we think it will be at our latitude, a close pass is still a win. If I see low level clouds zipping along and 25-30mph gusts in my yard, I'll consider that a check mark in the MA win column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 This is where the key split happens. Many of the members that hit NC go on to hit LI. Others run out to sea. Seems to be one Chesapeake Bay runner in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Someone at work just said "I heard Irma is heading east." You'll hear that and "Irma is the next Sandy" until it's over. Just tune out SM and traditional media or it'll ruin you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the windfield and storm is a big as we think it will be at our latitude, a close pass is still a win. If I see low level clouds zipping along and 25-30mph gusts in my yard, I'll consider that a check mark in the MA win column. 25 to 30mph gusts are pretty pedestration. We get a stronger wind day on an average fall day around here with wording for gusts over 50 with some of those tight pressure days. My goal for a win is always sustained 40mph+ at dca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 FWIW -- the 06z HWRF has Irma just passing north of the Islands at 126 (17.5 N 59.5 W), the end of its run... 06z HMON is north of that (~20 N and 58.5 W) at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If the windfield and storm is a big as we think it will be at our latitude, a close pass is still a win. If I see low level clouds zipping along and 25-30mph gusts in my yard, I'll consider that a check mark in the MA win column. No doubt about that . I was under a hurricane watch for Gloria. If Irma makes a close approach as a cat 4 or 5 I could see that happening again. Like I said fun times ahead . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Saw this in the main tropics thread... looks like 00z EPS wants to make landfall somewhere in the SE US 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 18 minutes ago, Subtropics said: 25 to 30mph gusts are pretty pedestration. We get a stronger wind day on an average fall day around here with wording for gusts over 50 with some of those tight pressure days. My goal for a win is always sustained 40mph+ at dca. With our track record with tropical actually touching us, 40mph sustained is a major long shot. I just want to be able to see part of the storm with my own 2 eyes and a real sky. Digital fantasies can only do so much...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: 6z gefs close up at hour 240. Just as Bob said Gefs actually looks the best it has to date. Ensembles the way to go for sure. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F240.html Nice plot. I was confused this morning when I woke up. I looks at the 0z EPS and 6z GEFS and was like "oh wow, they look fairly threatening". And then I started reading the board and got really confused. haha GEFS has been consistently showing a highly favored offshore track until 6z. That can't just totally be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 great posts @Bob Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I don't ask this to, in ANY way, to compare Irma and Sandy, but could someone explain why the high pressure building in after the frontal passage could not turn an Irma moving due North back to the East coast as happened with Sandy? It seems the discussion centers around a hit or a turn and out. Is a Sandy type track on the the table or is the "set up" totally different? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 6z gefs close up at hour 240. Just as Bob said Gefs actually looks the best it has to date. Ensembles the way to go for sure. 240 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F240.html 252 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/F252.html Cause I got bored... here is a list of ensemble members with hits for our region based on time and member: At 228 -- p02 and p12 are hits 234 -- p02 and p08 and p12 are hits 240 -- p02 and p05 and p08 and p12 are hits 246 -- c00 and p02 and p05 and p08 and p12 are hits... p20 with the brush 252 -- c00 and p05 and p06 258 -- c00 and p03 and p04 and p05 and p06 264 -- p03 and p04 and p06 270 -- p03 and p04 and p06 and p11 (brush) and p19 276 -- p03 and p04 and p11 (brush) and p19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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