Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro significantly north and east through 168. It should def gain lat judging by the riding. Won't be gulf or even florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 At 240 it's moving ever so slightly west of due north. Hard to tell where it goes after, but I'd say anyone from OBX to OTS is in the game for this run at least. It's a beast at 923 mb and strengthening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro just caved towards the Gfs. Interesting times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Gonna be a lot of back and forth the next several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 7 hours ago, Bob Chill said: This is one of the most intriguing storms in quite a while. No doubt about that. If you just play the odds from analogs then a goal post track would be the most likely outcome. This one is different. Euro isn't wavering with the atl ridge at all. Run over run its very strong and showing no signs of opening the door for the easy escape. And that ridge placement and strength is in the mid range. Euro is pretty damn good with that stuff. The approaching trough in the east is pretty locked in with getting out of the way in time. Still doesn't mean an offshore track isn't very much in the cards. I'm just rooting for the center to pass to our west. Don't care if landfall were to happen in the Gulf. I just want to be on the fun side. Moral police can arrest me for rooting for that too. Idgaf If we get a storm of this intensity to pass just west of the bay... it will be as bad or worse than Isabel in terms of storm surge. that would be cool and really horrible at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Stark contrast in setup from the overnight run of the Euro and the previous 2 runs. Euro now has the higher heights in the central North Atlantic as opposed to previous runs which have had it located farther south in the Eastern Atlantic. With the break down of the higher heights in the Eastern Atlantic we are seeing a farther north solution of Irma through the Caribbean Islands with an eventual northward and then northeastward recurve OTS as we no longer have the forcing mechanism over top. The big takeaway I get from looking upstream over the runs is how the models handle the trough that drops down through the Midwest and then into the East. Previous runs have shown the trough cutting off and allowing a follow up impulse to the north to proceed eastward into the northern Atlantic where it amplifies and forces the Atlantic ridging southward and westward in a prime location for an eastern seaboard strike. The latest run on the other hand does not cut off the southern portion of the trough. This allows the follow up impulse to the north to be drawn into the trough instead of proceeding eastward to amplify and force the ridging south and westward. One other piece which is involved in the setup is the placement of the trough/cutoff itself. Previous solutions have shown it much farther south and westward (Mississippi and west) which allows the ridging to build southward/westward. The latest run now shows it on the eastern seaboard. IMO the key player to watch will be the trough and how the models handle it. 9/1 00Z 8/31 12Z 8/31 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 lol at that overnight gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Looking over the ensemble means @ 500 mb suggest this run may not be an off run. The higher heights in the Atlantic have shifted north and eastward and we are also now seeing what looks to be a possible camp of ensemble members showing up with the storm itself that probably support the op run. Without seeing the individual runs themselves this is more conjecture then anything else though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 0z Euro ensembles ...all tracks still on the table it appears. . http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=328378 Looks as if the Gulf solution is quickly being taken off the table at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looks as if the Gulf solution is quickly being taken off the table at this point though. Euro and now 6z GFS both take any landfall solution off the table... except if you count bermuda... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, eurojosh said: Euro and now 6z GFS both take any landfall solution off the table... except if you count bermuda... Was just going to mention that. The setup on the 06Z GFS is a very close match to the overnight Euro. If this were to verify I see very little chance of a US strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro and now 6z GFS both take any landfall solution off the table... except if you count bermuda...Maybe... might curve back. Did that a couple runs ago, made landfall in SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Pretty nice agreement for OPs 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Looks destined for Maine/Canada this run. Interesting. It's done this twice now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 0Z GFS - "You're screwed!" 06Z GFS - "Just kidding" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Ducks out to sea before it goes anymore north. Brushes Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Sub 910 for 48 hours next weekend. I don't really remember seeing an Atlantic hurricane model with that kind of intensity before.... fairly nutty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 28 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Euro and now 6z GFS both take any landfall solution off the table... except if you count bermuda... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Pretty large shift for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 DT has a good read about the hurricane. Latest trends support his general outcomes in his article. Seems like a close call but no major impact. https://www.wxrisk.com/aug-31-hurricane-irma-gulf-fl-se-usa-out-to-sea/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Also cool to see , as Ventrice points out , how Sanvu impacts Irma down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Panasonic ensembles through day 10, including the mean, were still west of the op. I'm not keeping this here long because it take up too much of my attachment space lol.Just in case he deletes it later, it shows everything is on the table. Probably a few more OTS then last run though? Can't quite recall the last set of ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 lot of definitive statements being thrown around all over the place (not so much here in this thread). Main tropical thread is lol. Twitter is lol. News is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Still a very healthy amount of EURO ens headed towards Florida. Looks like ~50%, maybe more factoring out the funky green ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: It makes my head hurt. People hanging on d10+ deterministic solutions and intensity guidance Professionals on twitter are actually the worst right now. Some of the tweets I saw last night.... oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I added some more. Both camps are bad. It's like we can't be neutral anymore. Seriously, let this get to the Antilles before proclaiming anything. I think our thread has been really good so far mixing analysis, discussion, and weenie speculation I glanced at the main thread just for the lols. As B Chill said in banter, the discussion over why NHC wasn't doing recon was hilarious. JFC. Weenies. But the 00z GFS was awesome. In a purely entertaining type of way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, mappy said: lot of definitive statements being thrown around all over the place (not so much here in this thread). Main tropical thread is lol. Twitter is lol. News is lol. Yeah, it must have broken through to the public as I've gotten two texts from people asking me to keep them apprised...for a 10 day plus set of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I put the Panasonic ensemble on imgur for anywone who wants to view it later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I added some more. Both camps are bad. It's like we can't be neutral anymore. Seriously, let this get to the Antilles before proclaiming anything. I think our thread has been really good so far mixing analysis, discussion, and weenie speculation Totally agree. While it's interesting to see specific solutions (a'la the 00Z GFS), it's still way out there in time to take anything as more than speculation. To be honest, for right now just seeing how much Irma has blown up in the last day or so is impressive from a meteorological standpoint. And how much more it could intensify in the coming days. 22 minutes ago, mappy said: I glanced at the main thread just for the lols. As B Chill said in banter, the discussion over why NHC wasn't doing recon was hilarious. JFC. Weenies. But the 00z GFS was awesome. In a purely entertaining type of way. LOL, true! And we haven't even gotten into the winter snow event freak-outs yet! Consider this a pre-season warmup for dealing with the tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth with every event and every model run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 0z gefs didn't support the op and was decidedly OTS. 6z gefs is actually one of the more menacing gefs runs for US impacts. Added a couple gulf tracks for the first time and also added more probability with trough interaction. The euro/eps made a decided shift away from a gulf track. We'll know if that's a trend or a blip with 12z. Like I mentioned last night, strictly playing odds is an easy OTS bet from this range. That's what I would bet on if I had too. Even with no landfall it looks like the storm could quite possibly scrape coastal areas and it's looks to be a pretty large storm size wise as it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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