Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Guarantee you that you are more well versed then many in there, given the fact that I'm posting there. I respect your decision though. Ha! Appreciate it but I'm no doubt a tropical hack in my mind anyways. I think the bigger issue isn't what happens at h5 down the line. The mid range model war on track is far more important. GFS/GEFS hugs the north track every single run in the mid and long range. Seems like some sort of bias. Might have to do with intensity. I'm not really sure. But I'm pretty skeptical about what happens through hr120 on the GFS. If that's wrong then whatever happens after is REALLY wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: BTW, Jose says hello at 384 just off OBX Surfer's paradise, that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 For fun with the CMC.... when I look at the MSLP panels and h5 @ 240, it looks like track will follow the weakness between lp near the lakes and weak hp draped over top to the north. Since these features are moving, it looks like Irma would track NW before turning N then NE. H5 shows a bit of a tug to the west but that probably wouldn't hold on long enough for LF south of our latitude. Would get real close to the EC in our area and maybe a landfall in NY or SNE. Just having fun speculating on what the panels look like. ETA: after watching the loop it probably favors a scraper and no landfall but again, just having fun just cuz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 GEFS is tightly clustered through 180 but then shoots a shotgun off from there. Still favors an offshore track and oddly has no support for the euro op and EPS. Quite the war right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Nothing even close to going into cuba or a southern track through 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Time to see if the EURO still wants to turn Cuba upside down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Free Euro data https://weather.us/model-charts/euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS is tightly clustered through 180 but then shoots a shotgun off from there. Still favors an offshore track and oddly has no support for the euro op and EPS. Quite the war right now. Long range NCEP guidance has been atrocious this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 My guess is until the WSW movement in a few days is done we won't have a good handle on where it goes from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Canadian ens mean favors the euro track into FL or the gulf. The plot thickens...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Hmmm 5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Hmmm it explains why the euro has Irma above 1000 until saturday. NHC already has it 979 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 120hr is when we see the two models diverge. Euro looks like the 0z @120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, H2O said: 120hr is when we see the two models diverge. Euro looks like the 0z @120 Trajectory puts it over or N of PR though, not S like 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Euro is deeper with the eastern trough. Looks like it's going to close off the bottom of the trough. THAT would make things interesting...lol ETA: euro closed off h5 at the base of the trough @ 0z so nothing new. Leaves the door open for a ml capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 thru hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Trajectory puts it over or N of PR though, not S like 00z. Close enough. Not way NE like the GFS at the same timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is deeper with the eastern trough. Looks like it's going to close off the bottom of the trough. THAT would make things interesting...lol Have to think this bodes well for landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Ridge is just sliding west with Irma. 192 just N of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 This track would keep Irma stronger since it is avoiding the mountains of PR/Hispaniola... have to see if it avoids Cuba mtns as well (if it keeps on W/WNW track past 192) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Through the Keys and into the Gulf. Threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Into the Gulf at 240 - very close call for Miami. With that HP over the Tex-Mex border, I'd have to say it's heading for NO. Edit - or points East. That's a strong HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 so, one of our resident tropical guys can you explain why even with such a strong ridge this run, irma didn't change a whole lot compared to 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Statistically isn't it pretty rare for a hurricane that is strong early to hit the east coast? I can think of Hugo, Isabel, ....? Got to go with stats over models at this point IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 thanks, boo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Ukie @144 FWIW - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 eps and control are north of op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: 168 and after the EPS mean is further north than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Major Hurricane likely by 5pm AL, 11, 2017083118, , BEST, 0, 171N, 343W, 100, 967, HU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 15 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Ukie @144 FWIW - Looks to be slightly north of the Euro, although it's tough to tell with those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.