mappy Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 take it for its worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I think this is the latest fwiw.. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2017062309/t3/totp_t3sfc_f36.png thanks, was posted to my twitter. didn't know where to find it. 4" is pretty impressive if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: If you live south of i70 don't look at the 3k nam .. DC Split is strong this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 2 hours ago, mappy said: take it for its worth thank god it's not winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 MD line bullseye while everyone else gets a few sprinkles? What a surprise smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: DC screwjob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 GFS is dry(ier) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Now this was a remnants win. http://www.weather.gov/ctp/Agnes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 F the RGEM from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 20 minutes ago, mattie g said: F the RGEM from this morning. lol trend is not friend unless you live in Hagerstown or Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Even in HGR (actually a bit south) we are on the outside looking in. So close to an exciting/interesting event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 24, 2017 Share Posted June 24, 2017 Same here ..getting missed by 5-10 miles Harrisburg area must be getting the goods ...surrounded by flood warnings. Storms looked pretty from afar as they went by Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 24, 2017 Share Posted June 24, 2017 @mappy Except for a narrow line of showers to the west, that seem to be falling apart, it seems the rain is out of here. Looks as if you are Mission Go on your party today. By the way, Happy B-Day!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2017 Share Posted July 2, 2017 Hypesters are active on Twitter for that African wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 2, 2017 Share Posted July 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Hypesters are active on Twitter for that African wave I was just looking at feature. Conditions ahead of it don't look bad. If it can stay at a low latitude it might be fun to track. I'll be watching. Looks like our only shot at rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2, 2017 Share Posted July 2, 2017 The # of people posting the long range GFS output from yesterdays 18z run was ridiculous on Twitter. I've seen every solution from no storm to a US hit. They should password protect the day 10-15 GFS output and only give access to people deemed worthy of the information The issue is - even if a WxNerd posts the output jokingly on Twitter - a lay person will see it and assume it's a forecast for a major US hurricane landfall blahhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted July 2, 2017 Share Posted July 2, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm awake, but not interested yet. The strong southern flow off the African coast that was forcing and shearing everything south is now relaxing in the longer range. So if correct maybe we are seeing the beginnings of African season open up. So irregardless of whether this storm is real or not I think we will have some things to track shortly anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 Ocean temps near Africa are trending more favorably for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 GFS has waffled over to the recurve camp. Not that it matters this far out. Looks pretty on the maps, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 Can't have storms be N of leewards for good EC threats. Fish unless ridge builds over top of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Aside from the fact that the MDR is fire this early in the season, I'm not excited about this one. Not even following the models right now. Glad I got that first fail in early. It's good being anchored to the ground. Though I think there will be things to track shortly I really don't like the over all look on the models for any potential east coast impact. As h2o mentioned we need to see the Atlantic ridgeing build westward and even then with the mean trough situated in the east any potential threat will most likely to be swept out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 Someone challenge me! (see my comment from the link) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThisIsNotSparta Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 Not at a computer, but I'm not worried about SAL killing the season. It's true that SAL can put a cap (literally and figuratively) on MDR tropical activity, but: 1) SAL plume penetration into the Atlantic tends to be transient and focused, creating windows for development 2) While dust can make it all the way to North America, I don't think that's often or strong, keeping the door open for central and home brew development 3) IIRC, SAL becomes less prominent as the season progresses, hence CV season 4) SAL can certainly inhibit development, but a robust wave that has enough inner core organization can...over time...mix out that dry and stable air and intensify *if* other environmental conditions aren't too hostile Just a tool in the toolbox, but there are efforts out there to forecast SALhttp://www.weather.gov/sju/dss_salSAL isn't as dense as it usually is, plus African waves clear some of it outSent from my MotoE2(4G-LTE) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 Intriguing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 13 hours ago, ThisIsNotSparta said: SAL isn't as dense as it usually is, plus African waves clear some of it out Sent from my MotoE2(4G-LTE) using Tapatalk I think it's one of the strongest SAL events in some time. Here's an interesting BAMS about SAL and Atl TCs: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-85-3-353 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Long range ens guidance including seasonals like the cansips and cfs have been strongly advertising a fairly stout ridge centered over the Intermountain west and down stream troughing centered in the great Lakes region. This is a good July pattern for no heat waves so I've liked that. However, it's a recurve and/or tease pattern for tropical in the east. The gefs is teasing right now down the line but if ens consensus is right then the chances of getting the center of any tropical system to pass to our west isn't going to come easy. We're probably going to have several possible storms to track over the next 2-3 weeks but I'm not enthused at our prospects of impact. With that being said, ens upper level height patterns won't be static like the panels show so any storm could take advantage of transient ridging so there's always a chance. Overall it looks like height patterns won't be friendly in general though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 It took me forever to hunt this down! Thank God for Masters's archive! https://maps.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?year=2006&month=07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 Really fascinating battle setting up between the operational GFS and its parallel version. The GFS has been advertising that African wave to track westward across the Atlantic and then explosively deepen. Some of the runs make U.S. landfall, others tease the east coast, and some are out to sea, but every cycle of the GFS over the past few days has a monster storm somewhere near the U.S. east coast in the long range. On the other hand, the parallel wants nothing to do with this storm, and every run has wiped out the disturbance as it comes west. The para will become the ops in just over a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 11 hours ago, high risk said: Really fascinating battle setting up between the operational GFS and its parallel version. The GFS has been advertising that African wave to track westward across the Atlantic and then explosively deepen. Some of the runs make U.S. landfall, others tease the east coast, and some are out to sea, but every cycle of the GFS over the past few days has a monster storm somewhere near the U.S. east coast in the long range. On the other hand, the parallel wants nothing to do with this storm, and every run has wiped out the disturbance as it comes west. The para will become the ops in just over a week. 00z GFS taken literally (I know you shouldn't, but still) was a dangerous run if the wave were to develop and track like that... 06z GFS sends it to S TX/N MX as it gets demolished in the Carribean running through DR and Cuba... but yes, it is a very interesting battle between the two of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 28 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z GFS taken literally (I know you shouldn't, but still) was a dangerous run if the wave were to develop and track like that... 06z GFS sends it to S TX/N MX as it gets demolished in the Carribean running through DR and Cuba... but yes, it is a very interesting battle between the two of them Also consider that the Euro, Canadian (usually cane happy) are pretty much not seeing this. Wouldn't put too much stock into the OP GFS at this point - it loves to spin up fantasy canes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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