yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 h5 shows decent ridge above Irma at 132... should help direct Irma more westward some... though its more NW to SE oriented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, yoda said: h5 shows decent ridge above Irma at 132... should help direct Irma more westward some It's a decent shift towards the euro. Big timing and placement difference by that time though. Euro is a good bit faster and a lot of bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 other than strength, i dont see a lot of difference from 06z to 12z on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: other than strength, i dont see a lot of difference from 06z to 12z on gfs Looks like she is going north of the Antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Saw this in the SNE trop thread: 5 hours ago, PeabodyFlood said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 If you toggle the 150 position with the 06z 156 position, at that point in time it is only very slightly SW on this run Versus 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: other than strength, i dont see a lot of difference from 06z to 12z on gfs The interesting difference is the trough moving into the east coast. It's faster and more neutral. Will probably get out of the way quicker and not much chance at a crazy mid latitude phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The interesting difference is the trough moving into the east coast. It's faster and more neutral. Will probably get out of the way quicker and not much chance at a crazy mid latitude phase. ah, wasn't even paying attention to that. good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The interesting difference is the trough moving into the east coast. It's faster and more neutral. Will probably get out of the way quicker and not much chance at a crazy mid latitude phase. SNE is sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 12z GFS literally has no idea how to handle the trough as it comes to the EC. run to run it is deeper, slower, faster, more shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The interesting difference is the trough moving into the east coast. It's faster and more neutral. Will probably get out of the way quicker and not much chance at a crazy mid latitude phase. Not much reflection if any of the Gulf TC...looks gone on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, H2O said: SNE is sad It was never their storm, splitting the distance between Euro and GFS is always the most sound. The exception is when a storm is not formed yet. However @ 192 there are shades of the 1933 Potomac Hurricane. You guys will love this I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, H2O said: 12z GFS literally has no idea how to handle the trough as it comes to the EC. run to run it is deeper, slower, faster, more shallow. Yea, GFS is ALL over the place with trough. 12z run has an easy escape route between HP near the lakes and atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 yah. further east at 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Yeah, good call Bob. Out to sea looks likely on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Game over. The fat lady has sung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Game over. The fat lady has sung. Bob Chill hacked into this run, holy smokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 CMC, contrastingly, pops a small LP off the NJ coast that seems to help steer Irma south. ETA - Until it takes a sudden right turn and heads OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 you cannot be any more different wrt timing and the look of the trough than this 12z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 12z CMC sits Irma just north of the Bahamas at 240, but starting to move NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, GFS is ALL over the place with trough. 12z run has an easy escape route between HP near the lakes and atlantic. FYI, I quoted you in the main tropical thread, people are questioning how it escapes. Not sure if you wanted to go over there and clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Looking at 240 I'm beginning to wonder if it will recurve now looking at the h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 yeah, not sure that it will, yoda. probably head straight for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Er, make that Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, mappy said: yeah, not sure that it will, yoda. probably head straight for SNE Just SE of Maine at 276... SE Canada enjoys landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Already a beast, Irma is going to be a huge ACE producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: FYI, I quoted you in the main tropical thread, people are questioning how it escapes. Not sure if you wanted to go over there and clarify. Nah, I don't post in main threads about tropical. I'm not well versed. I'm just good at tracking h5 and storms in general. I always speak about my yard too so by "escape" I mean it's escaping any chance at hitting my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 FWIW, in the main tropics thread about Irma, discussion about how Irma plows into the ridge and shouldn't on the 12z GFS -- page 7 starts disco about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Nah, I don't post in main threads about tropical. I'm not well versed. I'm just good at tracking h5 and storms in general. I always speak about my yard too so by "escape" I mean it's escaping any chance at hitting my yard. Guarantee you that you are more well versed then many in there, given the fact that I'm posting there. I respect your decision though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 BTW, Jose says hello at 384 just off OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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