osfan24 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, BTRWx said: They could both enter the Gulf. That, too. That's actually the most likely scenario in my mind right now, though obviously still a lot of possibilities on the table this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 When was the last time a hurricane formed east of 40W and tracked into the Gulf? Common sense will get you far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: When was the last time a hurricane form east of 40W and tracked into the Gulf? Common sense will get you far. We're far from that conclusion possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: We're far from that conclusion. Dude, take a look at visible. Irma has a pinhole eye. Lol I am just getting slightly salty, that would be the ultimate shut down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, Vice-Regent said: Dude, take a look at visible. Irma has a pinhole eye. Lol Please stop making definitive statements. You don't know what Irma will, or won't do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I'm pretty sure that's not a pinhole eye, looks more along the lines of a likely disorganized and slightly open eye. I will say that I think it'll be a hurricane at the next update... aaaand there we go, update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: Due to the strength of the ridge to the north, Irma has a shot at being number 6. There were a total of 44 TCs named in tropical Atlantic east of 35W in satellite era that became hurricanes & only 5 made US landfall (11%). View conversation · Inb4 Bluewave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Wow, 100 mph storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Category 2 lol 000 WTNT31 KNHC 311448 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 ...HURRICANE IRMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 33.8W ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1845 MI...2975 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: I'm pretty sure that's not a pinhole eye, looks more along the lines of a likely disorganized and slightly open eye. I will say that I think it'll be a hurricane at the next update... aaaand there we go, update. NHC beat you to it! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, George BM said: Category 2 lol 000 WTNT31 KNHC 311448 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017 ...HURRICANE IRMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 33.8W ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1845 MI...2975 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 What's a good site to show the consolidated model tracks now that weather underground doesn't do this anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: What's a good site to show the consolidated model tracks now that weather underground doesn't do this anymore? Not the best, but straightforward: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ Edit - and free! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: What's a good site to show the consolidated model tracks now that weather underground doesn't do this anymore? The original! http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Getting a high octane boost from the SST rise out there in the last few weeks. Waters across the main development region of the Atlantic have warmed considerably since mid-August. Now trail only 2010 and 2005. #tropics pic.twitter.com/44ztLl5PF1 View photo · The strong trade winds have kept SSTs down untill recently. However, most of that water was mixed with the deeper ocean. Scary prospects going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Thanks. I guess I should have looked around a bit more on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 14 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Thanks. I guess I should have looked around a bit more on TT I really like this guy's site for tropical too. Especially the consolidated shear, TCHP, and floater panels. http://spaghettimodels.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Didn't expect Cat 2 so soon... might be a major hurricane before the day is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Eye has cleared. Loop must be cached. The final image using the site is a clear eye. Here we go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 NOT going to say that it will be like it, but didn't Isabel start out like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: NOT going to say that it will be like it, but didn't Isabel start out like this? The historical maps show that it developed slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Irma is in a great spot for RI right now. A little bit of shear in front so we'll see how it goes there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The historical maps show that it developed slower. Looks like it, the 12th adv issued by NHC, Isabel was a Cat 4 storm -- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/ISABEL.shtml? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Looks like through 90 that 12z GFS has Irma moving a little bit WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Already at 929 at 114...Can't wait for the GEOS 16 images on Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 12z GFS has decided to develop a tropical low behind Irma at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, LP08 said: Already at 929 at 114...Can't wait for the GEOS 16 images on Irma GFS makes me skeptical with rapid pressure falls. Goes from 958 to 929 in 18 hours. It's possible of course but rapid drops like that out in time are very hard to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: GFS makes me skeptical with rapid pressure falls. Goes from 958 to 929 in 18 hours. It's possible of course but rapid drops like that out in time are very hard to predict. Yeah after toggling to see what it was....I noticed that as well. Either way, should be purdy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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