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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


George BM

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GFS is so lol.  takes the coming trough down so deep it grabs a gulf low and makes a closed low in the MS valley.  That lets a ATL ridge pop back up and forces Irma NW to N instead of N to NE. 

 

And thats exactly what the Euro had last night too.  Just different location of Irma.  GFS is more NE with where it is while the euro says Shredderola/Cuba into probably either the tip of Fla or eastern gulf

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24 minutes ago, mappy said:

So, I guess everyone is ignoring the Euro? Quite the difference in output. 

 

It's just as likely to be right as the gfs/cmc camp, if not more. I've not seen the UK yet - what does that show?

 

At this point I think I'd be a shred more concerned in Miami than OBX, but a long way to go on this one.

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26 minutes ago, mappy said:

So, I guess everyone is ignoring the Euro? Quite the difference in output. 

ecmwf_mslp_m_conus2_41.png

GFS and CMC have the storm off the east coast while the Euro has it going into the gulf. The ensembles of all the models are mixed with gulf and east coast hits. This is a week out so this isn't a surprise.

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We've seen plenty of times when a storm is forecast to come towards the east coast and then just barrels into the Gulf. One reason I think this is less likely is it will already be a strong storm - generally I feel like the weaker ones are more likely to do the Gulf plow. 

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1 hour ago, H2O said:

GFS is so lol.  takes the coming trough down so deep it grabs a gulf low and makes a closed low in the MS valley.  That lets a ATL ridge pop back up and forces Irma NW to N instead of N to NE. 

 

And thats exactly what the Euro had last night too.  Just different location of Irma.  GFS is more NE with where it is while the euro says Shredderola/Cuba into probably either the tip of Fla or eastern gulf

Still not sure if I am buying the trough digging all the way to the Gulf. Know the models have been showing it on and off but it is awful early (not even into the Fall season) to be seeing that.

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28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

GFS and CMC have the storm off the east coast while the Euro has it going into the gulf. The ensembles of all the models are mixed with gulf and east coast hits. This is a week out so this isn't a surprise.

WHAT?! hold on hold on... you mean to tell me, a 10 day output ISN'T SET IN STONE. 

NO. WAY. 

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I'm curious I saw this on a different weather forum what does it mean

AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 40, 60, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, 
AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, 
AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 10, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,

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NHC consensus track is noticeably south of the last few runs of the GFS/GEFS. 

Comparing the EC and GFS ops @ hr120, you can see a fairly significant difference in the strength of the closed ridge in the central Atl. Ens are the same but the ops are easier to visually see why the models are diverging so much down the line. 

 

GFS:

gfs_z500a_atl_20.png\

 

 

Euro:

 

ecmwf_z500a_atl_6.png

 

 

 

d5 is really all that far out there in time either. It's always hard to bet against the euro/eps 500mb panels in the med range. Verification scores show that pretty clearly. My guess (and an easy one.lol) is that the GFS is going to consistently shift south with the med range track over the next few days. 

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58 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

So if I live anywhere between Jamaica and eastern Maine, I should pay attention to Irma.

Pretty much. I may need Snow88 to confirm for me though. 

52 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Isn't there a technical name for the box in the Caribbean for when tropical cyclones pass though?  I'm having no luck with search engines.

Herbert Box! 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

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16 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It will be interesting to see if the two storms have any impact on each other. The gulf system should hit the US first, but Irma won't be far behind.

They could both enter the Gulf.

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