mattie g Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, H2O said: Irma is better than Velma Too smart for her own good. She'd f*ck sh*t up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: The sign is kind of creepy, just sayin'. If you don't like the name once, how about three times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 GEFS pretty supportive of a recurve. No support for a western track into the gulf at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormFollowerUSA Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, jacindc said: I dunno, I have good thoughts associated with the name. (Cody, Wyo.) I have been to Cody, Wyoming. It a fun little Town1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 GFS and Euro diverge pretty much immediately. Nearly 20mb difference in strength in just 72 hours. Euro is much weaker. One model is going to be very wrong with the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Dude, I'm pretty sure I know who you are and please for god sakes don't start talking "new reality" and crap like that here. Guess he doesn't remember Wilma, Gilbert, Camille, ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS and Euro diverge pretty much immediately. Nearly 20mb difference in strength in just 72 hours. Euro is much weaker. One model is going to be very wrong with the short range. Something seems off on the tropicaltidbits 500mb chart. Very tight isobars with high pressure. Maybe the ridge is just nuts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Even more interesting is that between 72 and 120, the 12z EURO is moving Irma to the WSW some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Even more interesting is that between 72 and 120, the 12z EURO is moving Irma to the WSW some I mean that's pretty much what the NHC track forecast has in a few days - a turn back to the WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormFollowerUSA Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Dude, I'm pretty sure I know who you are and please for god sakes don't start talking "new reality" and crap like that here. Exactly Hurricanes and Tropical Storms of all types and sizes have been happening for hundreds of years. Really we have been fortunate until this year that we haven't had a Maor Hurricane to make Landfall in the U.S since 2005. And also since 2006, few Hurricanes had made Landfall in Florida and Gulf of Mexico. There had been some but not a lot since really Ike in 2008. This has been an above average warm year that a fact. I wonder how old this person is. I old enough to remember what Katrina did to New Orleans and Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 minute ago, StormFollowerUSA said: Exactly Hurricanes and Tropical Storms of all types and sizes have been happening for hundreds of years. Really we have been fortunate until this year that we haven't had a Maor Hurricane to make Landfall in the U.S since 2005. And also since 2006, few Hurricanes had made Landfall in Florida and Gulf of Mexico. There had been some but not a lot since really Ike in 2008 Was just mentioning that particular location (905mb South of Bermuda), i just don't ever recall seeing that and looking back I can't find analogs. However reliable analogs only go back 70 years. It's not scientifically possible to link a specific hurricane to climate change but you can link stuff like 500mb setups and intensification rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I mean that's pretty much what the NHC track forecast has in a few days - a turn back to the WSW Yes, but NHC in the 11am disco said they did not go as far as what the EURO/EPS suggested re track Thus, the NHC track prediction is on the southwestern side of the guidance envelope, although not as far in that direction as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 GFS has this little low pressure just ahead of Irma that bisects the ridge in the ATL to make two and thats where Irma follows. Euro doesn't have that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 12z EURO has Hurricane Irma over northern most Windward Islands at 168 at 959mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, H2O said: GFS has this little low pressure just ahead of Irma that bisects the ridge in the ATL to make two and thats where Irma follows. Euro doesn't have that at all. The 2 globals diverge in many categories. Euro has a much stronger closed atl ridge @ 168. That will force the storm westward and keep it from gaining latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Vice really needs to STFU. He was already banned from here for this crap and he just can't resist posting it. WTF man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Vice really needs to STFU. He was already banned from here for this crap and he just can't resist posting it. WTF man. Bro, i'm just going off what I know. The research is out there. SAL outbreaks were vicious especially since 2012. What a beast setup tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z EURO has Hurricane Irma over northern most Windward Islands at 168 at 959mb Scary look for PR and the Bahamas, not to say wherever it goes after then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Vice really needs to STFU. He was already banned from here for this crap and he just can't resist posting it. WTF man. carrier pigeon was sent to the powers that be. give it sometime, they don't have game of thrones magical flying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 192 pummeling PR and looks like it may get a visit to DR/Haiti Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Just now, mappy said: carrier pigeon was sent to the powers that be. give it sometime, they don't have game of thrones magical flying power. Gendry can run it there faster. Dude is the Usain Bolt of Westeros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Labor Day or LI Express? Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Entering SE Bahamas at 216... this is might be an ugly run verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Entering SE Bahamas at 216... this is might be an ugly run verbatim I just realized the Euro is no longer developing the Gulf system in the same manner as 0z. That could be a deciding factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Just now, Vice-Regent said: I just realized the Euro is no longer developing the Gulf system in the same manner as 0z. That could be a deciding factor. Its still there, but instead of being in the N GOM like it was before, now its down in the BoC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Shades of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) @ 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Euro h5 setup all the way through eliminates the easy recurve chances so there's that. Beyond d10 is almost certainly a US landfall. Euro is much slower with development through the mid range so that's probably the biggest reason the track is decidedly south of the GFS. The answer to which is right with short range strength will be known pretty quick. Down the line, the euro shows a wall of denial the whole way through for the storm not being able to gain much latitude. Differences start fairly early @ h5 in the ATL between the euro and gfs. My guess the the EPS will support d10 placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 40 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Was just mentioning that particular location (905mb South of Bermuda), i just don't ever recall seeing that and looking back I can't find analogs. However reliable analogs only go back 70 years. It's not scientifically possible to link a specific hurricane to climate change but you can link stuff like 500mb setups and intensification rate. Hasn't happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It might already be a hurricane. I will just leave this here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 This storm will be bad because it begins with the letter "I". That's always the bad letter. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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