yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS on board with fairly quick strengthening in the mid range. Much stronger than any previous run through d5. Yup, 960mb by hr 132 and moving due West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 GFS is a good bit further north than the euro through d7 but we're getting pretty far outside of useful op range so not much to really dissect. 952mb is no joke either way. wow. ETA: 941 @ hr174 now...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 12z GFS also unfortunately has a home brew system headed toward E LA/S MS at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 932 at hour 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS is a good bit further north than the euro through d7 but we're getting pretty far outside of useful op range so not much to really dissect. 952mb is no joke either way. wow. ETA: 941 @ hr174 now...wow. Mid 930s at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS is a good bit further north than the euro through d7 but we're getting pretty far outside of useful op range so not much to really dissect. 952mb is no joke either way. wow. ETA: 941 @ hr174 now...wow. 935mb @192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Its going to be a recurve looking at 204 as Irma is already moving NW... but still, pretty strong signal from the GFS OP of a powerful hurricane down the line in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I used to have a computer program that allowed me to do it, complete with basic UL features. Was it FrontPainter or Digital Atmosphere? I had both of those and both allowed drawing in isotachs, fronts etc. I had so much fun with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Its going to be a recurve looking at 198 as Irma is already moving NW... but still, pretty strong signal from the GFS OP of a powerful hurricane down the line in the Atlantic Happy Hour @ 18z. When was the last time we had a 925mb South of Bermuda? Not in any of our lifetimes. This is some 19th century style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 929mb at 204 and 925mb at 210 Bermuda better watch out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 12z GGEM also on the recurve train at 228 moving NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 0z Euro and EPS were decidedly south of where the GFS is down the line. A re-curve is always on the table of course but personally I believe there is a higher chance at a track into the gulf than a recurve based on all guidance coming out the last 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 WTH... GFS just bombs Irma away... wow... 911mb at 222 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Just now, yoda said: WTH... GFS just bombs Irma away... wow... 911mb at 222 If not for the second trough it would probably be stuck down there Harvey style. God willing that doesn't happen when it's 911mb. The water column supports a cat 5 down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 That gulf system is nothing to be messed with either - 979mb just south of TX/LA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 I have to be honest, I don't think it's gonna come out with the ridge displaced so far NW like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Just now, eurojosh said: That gulf system is nothing to be messed with either - 979mb just south of TX/LA border. Yeah, but it rides the N GOM all the way to W FL... never really making landfall... but lots of rain for places that don't need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 908mb at 228 903mb at 234 Alright... who is messing with the GFS this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 908mb at 228 903mb at 234 Alright... who is messing with the GFS this run? Welcome to the new weather reality. Jim Hansen speaks for us. Ruined by truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 If it intensifies that much I'd put money on a recurve - the stronger storms that get strong early on tend to have a much higher recurve risk. Still a long way away. We're going to see every solution over the next week or so. Tonight with the 0z runs I guess we'll get it initialized as an actual storm though so that may help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said: Welcome to the new weather reality. Jim Hansen speaks for us. Ruined by truncation. Dude, I'm pretty sure I know who you are and please for god sakes don't start talking "new reality" and crap like that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 "Surface pressure varies too much (109 hPa, limit is 100 hPa) within the requested domain to make an accurate mean sounding." Bob Chill I was just messin'. It is ridiculous, I love you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 So the GFS went absolutely hog wild with development in the med range. Certainly possible but not sure about probable. Interested to see the GEFS MSLP and h5 means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Since this is a long track, I'm already preparing for the moral police to show up and tell us how bad we are for a week or so. I'll protect you guys. No one outside our region gets to troll you guys, let us local folks do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 [Howard]Its wrong to root for clouds either summer or winter!!![Weeper53] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 minute ago, StormFollowerUSA said: I wish the name didn't have such an evil sound to it. Gonna want to watch this So I'm not the only one who feels that way about it. Irma... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 I dunno, I have good thoughts associated with the name. (Cody, Wyo.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Irma is better than Velma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, jacindc said: I dunno, I have good thoughts associated with the name. (Cody, Wyo.) The sign is kind of creepy, just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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