Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I feel like I'm one of the few anchored ones lol. I'll be catching up on sleep and will start seriously watching this once it passes the islands. We're an eternity away from declaring Real Irma (as opposed to Fake Irma PTC 10) a bona fide threat to the US. 10+ day ensemble means and ops don't do much for me. You realize that I don't believe a word you juat posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I feel like I'm one of the few anchored ones lol. I'll be catching up on sleep and will start seriously watching this once it passes the islands. We're an eternity away from declaring Real Irma (as opposed to Fake Irma PTC 10) a bona fide threat to the US. 10+ day ensemble means and ops don't do much for me. LOL Fake Irma. I had to explain to my better half how it wasn't actually a tropical storm even tho the news kept calling it "irma". Silly media. 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is the first time this season that it at least all makes sense from long range for a conus impact. Eps favors a further south and west track than the op. 6z gefs favors a track into NC and up into our area. As long as the timing stays generally the same with the trough lifting, our area is very much in the game for a while. At the very least this exercise will help pass time before the more important first freeze contest. Haha Oh I know. Wouldn't be a legit threat if I didn't troll you weenies every once and a while. I'll be keeping an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 These panels are acceptable for now. Ewall doesn't capture all ens members. I'll let yoda fill in the rest with the shiny new site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 guess we have Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Shiny new map Member P002 850mb winds in knots... hope Wes doesn't get blown away with the winds at 130-140 knots... yes, I know surface winds would probably be half of what the 850 level shows... landfall on this ensemble member was in NE SC and Irma is moving due north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: These panels are acceptable for now. Ewall doesn't capture all ens members. I'll let yoda fill in the rest with the shiny new site. 1/3 of panels affecting our region - of which 3/4 are big, big hits. Long way to go, but the thing that strikes me is that there are solutions that bring a strong storm into our region both with and without a trough over the middle of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Shiny new map Member P002 850mb winds in knots... hope Wes doesn't get blown away with the winds at 130-140 knots... yes, I know surface winds would probably be half of what the 850 level shows... landfall on this ensemble member was in NE SC and Irma is moving due north Seems acceptable for now. I think even EJ would like that outcome...nah, who am I kidding. There would still be a few survivors and partially demolished houses still standing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 14 minutes ago, yoda said: Shiny new map Member P002 850mb winds in knots... hope Wes doesn't get blown away with the winds at 130-140 knots... yes, I know surface winds would probably be half of what the 850 level shows... landfall on this ensemble member was in NE SC and Irma is moving due north Isn't kph kilometers per hour? Pretty substantial difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Seems acceptable for now. I think even EJ would like that outcome...nah, who am I kidding. There would still be a few survivors and partially demolished houses still standing. P009 actually is much worse... or better lol. Would be once in a lifetime event... at 1:00 AM on Sept 13, Irma is at 952mb over RAH and at 1:00 PM on September 13th, Irma is in Buffalo at 966mb... 170kilometers per hour 850mb level winds over Wes and 150 kilometers per hour over DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Since this is a long track, I'm already preparing for the moral police to show up and tell us how bad we are for a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Isn't kph kilometers per hour? Pretty substantial difference. You are correct... my bad. I saw kph and fligured it was knots, nice catch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Yoda - that is kph not knots. Not as bad as you are thinking but still very tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 23 minutes ago, yoda said: Shiny new map Member P002 850mb winds in knots... hope Wes doesn't get blown away with the winds at 130-140 knots... yes, I know surface winds would probably be half of what the 850 level shows... landfall on this ensemble member was in NE SC and Irma is moving due north Using the correct calculations now... since its in kilometers per hour and not knots... 130-140 kilometers per hour would be 85-90 mph winds at the 850 level... so I would surmise winds of 60-70 mph taking into account its at 850 to surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Yoda - that is kph not knots. Not as bad as you are thinking but still very tropical. *weenie hat on* GEFS has a bias for underestimating mid level and surface winds *weeenie hat off* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 I very much want to hop on the bus on this one. My mind is telling me not to go down that road though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: *weenie hat on* GEFS has a bias for underestimating mid level and surface winds *weeenie hat off* Picking the worst case ensemble and figuring out precisely what wind speeds are is just about the most weenie thing imaginable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Major up the bay or bust. (Or a Hazel Redux) (Or a Rich man's Isabel) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 16 minutes ago, yoda said: P009 actually is much worse... or better lol. Would be once in a lifetime event... at 1:00 AM on Sept 13, Irma is at 952mb over RAH and at 1:00 PM on September 13th, Irma is in Buffalo at 966mb... 170kilometers per hour 850mb level winds over Wes and 150 kilometers per hour over DCA 105mph 850mb winds over Wes... 93mph 850mb winds over DCA... probably surmise that with N movement of Irma... 850mb winds would probably be close to 100mph over DCA at its peak... 15% reduction is 85 mph (that's what it would be, no?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: Picking the worst case ensemble and figuring out precisely what wind speeds are is just about the most weenie thing imaginable. And if someone didn't do it then I would be seriously disappointed in this sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somecallmetim Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Please God no. I'm generally a decade long lurker, but couldn't agree more. Perhaps we can preemptively set up a "morality thread" and keep this one clean for those of us who can compartmentalize... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I very much want to hop on the bus on this one. My mind is telling me not to go down that road though. It's the best chance at a cape verde impacting the US this year. No question there. And by best chance I mean we have a minute fractional chance right now. I don't know about you but that's all in odds if I've ever seen them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Doing it once or twice, sure, why not. Speculation, acceptable as long as it's not full weenie. But I really hope we can keep having a serious conversation about tropical. I take pride that our thread is active and (usually) serious. I mean I understand... just there is nothing really else to discuss tropics-wise for the next week and cherry picking an ensemble member that smokes us is kind of the only thing we can do until we get closer -- which won't be till next week sometime when we can get more serious about the track of Irma - probably when she reaches the Windward Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Doing it once or twice, sure, why not. Speculation, acceptable as long as it's not full weenie. But I really hope we can keep having a serious conversation about tropical. I take pride that our thread is active and (usually) serious. There's only so much serious discussion that could be done at this range anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Doing it once or twice, sure, why not. Speculation, acceptable as long as it's not full weenie. But I really hope we can keep having a serious conversation about tropical. I take pride that our thread is active and (usually) serious. My imaginary line to cease sillyness and begin seriousness is if/when the storm gets to the bahamas and the cone is pointed in the general direction of the US somewhere. Pretty much gives us a week of free for all. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, yoda said: I mean I understand... just there is nothing really else to discuss tropics-wise for the next week and cherry picking an ensemble member that smokes us is kind of the only thing we can do until we get closer -- which won't be till next week sometime when we can get more serious about the track of Irma - probably when she reaches the Windward Islands I was taking it seriously when it was just a butterfly flapping it's wings over Australia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Woah... TS Irma set at 50mph winds... 1004mb... and movement W at 13 mph BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 ...IRMA FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 30.3W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area in the far eastern Atlantic has become much better organized since yesterday, with many curved bands around the center. ASCAT data showed peak winds of about 42 kt, and after considering the small size of the circulation and some undersampling due to the resolution of the instrument, the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. Global models indicate that the upper-level winds are likely to be favorable for strengthening of Irma during the next several days. However, Irma will be moving over more marginal water temperatures and into drier mid-level conditions, which should temper the intensification rate. The NHC solution is a blend of the intensity consensus and the statistical-dynamical hurricane models SHIPS and LGEM. At the end of the period, the forecast could turn out to be conservative if the very conducive environment shown in most of the global models emerges. The initial motion estimate is 280/11. A ridge over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to steer Irma westward over the next few days. Thereafter, the ridge builds southwestward, which will likely cause the storm to move, somewhat unusually, toward the west-southwest. The official forecast puts more weight on the global models than the regional hurricane models, which appear to have a northward bias on this cycle. Thus, the NHC track prediction is on the southwestern side of the guidance envelope, although not as far in that direction as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 16.4N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 16.7N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 17.3N 33.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 17.9N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.2N 37.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 18.7N 41.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 17.7N 46.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 17.0N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Did anyone else used to take blank hurricane tracking maps, make up various ultimate hurricane scenarios, and plot them on the map? My fantasy storm for this area has never come close to fruition. I had a Hugo-esque Category 4 with an Isabel-sized wind field make landfall near Nags Head moving NNW at 25 mph and pass just to the west of IAD as a category 2. DCA records 89/g107 south wind. PEPCO experiences 95% outage. The flash flooding from 6" of rain is followed by Fran-type Potomac River flooding. I even made up a newscast script for this event. But when I did something similar with making up snowstorms (drawing snow total bands on a blank map), my ultimate fantasy season was actually surpassed by 09/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 ^ WOTY material right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 GFS on board with fairly quick strengthening in the mid range. Much stronger than any previous run through d5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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