Bob Chill Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 EPS generally agrees with the LW pattern on the op and enough ens members have a tropical system in the eastern bahamas to show up on the MSLP panels and a closed h5 contour. For way out there in range, this isn't that bad of a setup. Supports the general idea of the eastern trough moving up and out of the way at a good time. In general, it's not an easy re-curve fish pattern. I would speculate that if things happen like they look right now, Irma would probably at least get close to the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 The GFS has a 42 MB drop in 36 hours. Nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The GFS has a 42 MB drop in 36 hours. Nasty. Right over that Floriday Keys while dead center of the Anticyclone. I say that's an imaginary CAT 5 landfall. The GFS still has 13 more days to destroy every city along the east and gulf coast as well as the Canadian maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Every model now develops a major hurricane This is going to be very interesting to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Pretty good agreement in track, if not intensity, for a 10-day forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just to add to this ..here's the 18z Gefs mrefs for day 8. Pretty solid signal Heh, another heavy rain event along the TX coast would be insult to injury x 1000. Globals and ens all look similar too so some sort of rain event seems likely in at this point. How about the lala 18z gfs huh? H5 is perfect for running the remnant center right up the apps. One of the ens members damn near runs a cane up the mouth of the bay. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 7 days from now there still will be water in a lot of houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Cherry picking ensembles is fun. here's Katrina 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: EPS generally agrees with the LW pattern on the op and enough ens members have a tropical system in the eastern bahamas to show up on the MSLP panels and a closed h5 contour. For way out there in range, this isn't that bad of a setup. Supports the general idea of the eastern trough moving up and out of the way at a good time. In general, it's not an easy re-curve fish pattern. I would speculate that if things happen like they look right now, Irma would probably at least get close to the EC. Not looking forward to that at all! SST anomalies scream trouble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: P006 I believe is the one. (Potential Gulf heavy rain ) Even at 7 days out or so Texas would still only be in the beginning stages of Harvey cleaning up and assessing . They'd be crying uncle ..for sure. lol P006 would be like Isabel over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: What website did you use to find such great ensemble pics like that? It is a truly fantastic site. I love that it has custom zooms, the Euro, ensembles, etc. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/virginia/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, yoda said: lol P006 would be like Isabel over again Just for giggles... P006 850mb wind speeds... just a lil gusty out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: What website did you use to find such great ensemble pics like that? It is a truly fantastic site. I love that it has custom zooms, the Euro, ensembles, etc. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/virginia/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 120kt 850mb wind speeds ftw from P006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 0z gfs advertising a really strong into the Bahamas. Ops are kinda locked in for now and ens are moving that way too. I have to admit, I'm kinda getting sucked into this one now. The timing looks right with the trough exiting the east in time. That's putting the cart before the horse but you can't help but being interested right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 This storm appears to be a reshape the OBX level. Dang, Bob Chill special. It truncates and still gets down to absurd levels of SLP. Rest in pieces whoever this hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 This is all I needed to see, the amount of support for a US impactor is enormous on GEFS and EPS. The most since i've been tracking, and I've been at this for a long time. The debate truely resides in whether this will hit the SE or Upper East Coast. Also the ensembles have the Gulf System that showed on the 12z Euro. So bad, can people still live comfortably at the coast? It's been on my mind for some time especially post-Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: 0z gfs advertising a really strong into the Bahamas. Ops are kinda locked in for now and ens are moving that way too. I have to admit, I'm kinda getting sucked into this one now. The timing looks right with the trough exiting the east in time. That's putting the cart before the horse but you can't help but being interested right now. 00z GGEM is east of the Bahamas... and looks to be moving WNW... but I think would be a recurve if I am looking at the h5 heights correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 00z EURO at 240... just a 941mb hurricane about to enter the Bahamas moving WNW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Draw a letter C. Theres your path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 06z GFS would be a fish it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 32 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 06z GFS would be a fish it seems. Thats cause the GFS has a totally different setup than before. It pulls the trough out, builds a ridge over the Gulf and forces Irma between the gulf ridge and the ATL ridge. way different not buying it that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/902864582951272449 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/902864582951272449 Indeed, seems like the trends on the EPS are more Westward. Timing though very hard at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 practicing for winter i see and tracking 10 day storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, mappy said: practicing for winter i see and tracking 10 day storms. Well, to be fair...the storm already exists but still a few thousand miles away. At least we're not chasing a digital fantasy. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Well, to be fair...the storm already exists but still a few thousand miles away. At least we're not chasing a digital fantasy. Lol ha, that is good. a slight improvement over our winter tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 It's on. Special Message from NHC Issued 30 Aug 2017 12:52 UTC NHC will be initiating advisories at 11 AM AST on Tropical Storm Irma, located west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: ha, that is good. a slight improvement over our winter tracking. This is the first time this season that it at least all makes sense from long range for a conus impact. Eps favors a further south and west track than the op. 6z gefs favors a track into NC and up into our area. As long as the timing stays generally the same with the trough lifting, our area is very much in the game for a while. At the very least this exercise will help pass time before the more important first freeze contest. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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