The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

[Kmlwx]

15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You might be bored for a long time brother

I know. It's killing me. Luckily I have work to keep me busy (apparently the worst times here are September-December). So if all else fails, I'll fall into a fetal position and lose myself in work. 

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

To be clear, I'm not saying close the shades. I think that we're going to have continued activity through at least the next 7-10 days. We're just a ways out from the next legitimate threat. 

We've had some robust CV waves so far this season. Harvey, Gert, PTC 10. They've all been able to eventually develop in spite of a hostile MDR. As the MDR becomes more favorable with instability and lower shear, we could see some intense storms out there. Even if the MJO becomes unfavorable in early September, it may be favorable again in October--which has been a real period of activity and EC threats recently. 

WW007 is calling for a Sandy Part II

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

To be clear, I'm not saying close the shades. I think that we're going to have continued activity through at least the next 7-10 days. We're just a ways out from the next legitimate threat. 

We've had some robust CV waves so far this season. Harvey, Gert, PTC 10. They've all been able to eventually develop in spite of a hostile MDR. As the MDR becomes more favorable with instability and lower shear, we could see some intense storms out there. Even if the MJO becomes unfavorable in early September, it may be favorable again in October--which has been a real period of activity and EC threats recently. 

The fact that we are looking at a trough in the east through that time period normally signals an east coast whiff. But looking through that time period there are so many moving parts and things are moving so quickly in the westerlies you really can't rule anything out. Trough is dropping so deep you can't rule out a possible capture. Storm delays a couple of days it gets caught up in the ridging building behind the trough. Still could end up in the gulf. I don't know if I would rule anything out at this point.

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

The fact that we are looking at a trough in the east through that time period normally signals an east coast whiff. But looking through that time period there are so many moving parts and things are moving so quickly in the westerlies you really can't rule anything out. Trough is dropping so deep you can't rule out a possible capture. Storm delays a couple of days it gets caught up in the ridging building behind the trough. Still could end up in the gulf. I don't know if I would rule anything out at this point.

Yeah - it would be foolish to. How many times have we seen the models develop a monster only to have it never develop. We've also seen models be insistent in the long range with one track only to sag it way down into the Caribbean in the end. No solution ruled out for now. 

[Kmlwx]

49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The last wave that was primed to be 93L, the third of the CV triplets, never even got off the ground despite a moist environment and low initial shear. All the models were on that one and poof. Just as Harvey was coming back to life...

Part of the reason why I'm fascinated with tropical is because it's one of the great frontiers in meteorology. We still have a LOT to learn about development and intensification. We still can't determine precise tracks at long leads. It's still pretty unpredictable. Just look at today.

That's why it's so important to know your climo and keep your head on a swivel.

dtk will murder me probably - but I do wonder if it's also due to a lack of better data around the tropics. I know most everything can be acquired via airplanes and remote sensing - but there's obviously not balloon launches happening down in the middle of the ocean off of Africa. So I wonder with better sampling of that environment if we'd have a better handle. Doubtful...given the remote sensing mentioned above...but who knows. 

I think perhaps a lot of it is that tropical storms and hurricanes are so vast and dynamic that the models just don't necessarily handle them as well as regular synoptic weather. 

[yoda]

Harvey remnants this weekend?

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, yoda said:

Harvey remnants this weekend?

 

Looks like it. Euro and GFS both bring it up the tn valley area but there's not going to be much left by that time. It could bring some good rain of course but as far as a "tropical feel" goes, keep expectations low. 

[Bob Chill]

It's out there in time but guidance is hinting towards another round of significant rain along the TX coast in a week as a wave in the gulf moves north. 

[yoda]

Re 93L:

12z GGEM has a large hurricane at 240 just SE of the Bahamas, but there is a trough in the Eastern US at the same time... would guess it would be a close call if we were to take the run for granted lol

12z GFS has nothing

00z EURO has 93L moving WNW at 240 just north of DR/Haiti (was over PR at 216) getting ready to move into the SE Bahamas... but also has a trough in the Eastern US

[Kmlwx]

On the CMC (like it matters) the trough looks like it's going negative too early for my eyes. I don't trust the CMC though for anything tropical beyond 2 hours. 

[Bob Chill]

Flow is progressive in the mid-latitudes down the line. Troughs will be on the move. Yea, would be nice for a fat friendly ridge to park in the east but looking at the progression doesn't look "impossible" for EC landfall. GFS just kills the wave in the bahamas. Maybe it's reverse psychology with the gfs....all the phantom waves were fiction...maybe killing the wave in the mid range means it will do the opposite. lol

[showmethesnow]

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

Re 93L:

12z GGEM has a large hurricane at 240 just SE of the Bahamas, but there is a trough in the Eastern US at the same time... would guess it would be a close call if we were to take the run for granted lol

12z GFS has nothing

Can't believe how deep that trough is dropping. Paying a visit to the Gulf. Now if we can just see this during the winter I will be stoked.

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Can't believe how deep that trough is dropping. Paying a visit to the Gulf. Now if we can just see this during the winter I will be stoked.

Almost looks like winter with how amplified it is doesn't it?

[ErinInTheSky]

So I know a lot of you know I'm really into tropical weather. Just to let everyone know, the reason I haven't been posting here is because I'm running a live thread on reddit /r/tropicalweather.

 

But what a storm.

[MillvilleWx]

Euro cut back on the remnant impacts from Harvey from prior run, but the biggest difference was noticeable around 700mb. Not a huge change at H5 but H7 was a fairly solid shift with drier air advecting up the east side of the Appalachians and cutting through the area quickly. The better of the two runs with precip also had a closed 700mb low over WV while the new run opens up sooner and dynamic effects downstream are weakened. If the the system can retain a closed 700 circulation, increased divergence on the eastern side of the remnant system would promote better precip potential for east of the BR. 

[Bob Chill]

I suppose we need to keep an eye on the wave in the southern gulf. Euro and GFS don't develop into a TC and the waters are churned pretty good but the 12z euro does develop an organized low into TX/LA. GFS is less organized but a heavy rainer. Worth a watch either way. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Per Ion on Twitter:

 

"12z Euro Day 10. :-0"

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Per Ion on Twitter:

 

"12z Euro Day 10. :-0"

That trough coming in should boot Irma, no?

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

That trough coming in should boot Irma, no?

Not with the strong west Atlantic ridge on the Euro.

[MN Transplant]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

That trough coming in should boot Irma, no?

Maybe, but the trough is already lifting.  In theory, you could see the ridge build back west some. 

I thought this was going to be about the home-brew making landfall on the LA coast.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

That trough coming in should boot Irma, no?

Of course discussing d10 ops is silly as usual...but...Irma is still in the eastern bahamas @d10. Trough is progressive so the HP behind the trough plus the trough lifting into the 50/50 area would probably keep irma from recurving. I can extrapolate any d10 op run to become what I want to see so there's that too...lol

[yoda]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Maybe, but the trough is already lifting.  In theory, you could see the ridge build back west some. 

I thought this was going to be about the home-brew making landfall on the LA coast.

it might have been... Ian's tweet I guess was probably more for that

[Bob Chill]

25 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

I thought this was going to be about the home-brew making landfall on the LA coast.

That's probably the more interesting feature for our area honestly. General timing could easily absorb whatever it is into a front. From the looks of the trough, it's probably going to be a very strong front. Looks like a shot of true fall air is coming early this year. The weenie playbook reads like this: homebrew gets sucked northward into our area with strong SW flow before the front....then a severe outbreak with the front...then some cool crisp days leading into Irma coming right up the mouth of the bay. 

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's probably the more interesting feature for our area honestly. General timing could easily absorb whatever it is into a front. From the looks of the trough, it's probably going to be a very strong front. Looks like a shot of true fall air is coming early this year. The weenie playbook reads like this: homebrew gets sucked northward into our area with strong SW flow before the front....then a severe outbreak with the front...then some cool crisp days leading into Irma coming right up the mouth of the bay. 

This is not appropriate for this forum. Mods - please remove this explicit content. 

[yoda]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's probably the more interesting feature for our area honestly. General timing could easily absorb whatever it is into a front. From the looks of the trough, it's probably going to be a very strong front. Looks like a shot of true fall air is coming early this year. The weenie playbook reads like this: homebrew gets sucked northward into our area with strong SW flow before the front....then a severe outbreak with the front...then some cool crisp days leading into Irma coming right up the mouth of the bay. 

Sounds like you are high on the WD index... you need to tone it down some good sir

 

[Bob Chill]

31 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

This is not appropriate for this forum. Mods - please remove this explicit content. 

you see, the beautiful thing about my over the top weenie post is that it is real analysis and could actually happen. And when it does I look forward to the "it's happening" gif post by WxUSAF. Oh, and I called it first. Can't forget that one either. 

[smokeybandit]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIZiQt5W0AQr007.jpg

[frd]

The ECM sat image forecast is a massive hurricane , cat 3  to my eyes, thats really cool looking image . 

That CF is clearing the Coast it appears on Friday the 8 th. A powerful CF at that / 

 

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIZiQt5W0AQr007.jpg

Wow... thats... alot of rain

[George BM]

24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Marked change here at the beach. Wind swept rain right now despite the radar. Imagine the swells have gotten larger too. Finally. 

Eta: wind swept drizzle 

Guesstimation of wind gusts over there?