showmethesnow Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Looking at the 500's through the next 15 days it doesn't look promising for any possible east coast impact of tropical. Like we have been fighting most of the summer we see the mean trough planted in the east for most of the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 28 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Dont know if you saw Euro but it's definitely on the nw envelope with its low placement with Irma and throws 1- 3.5" back of heavy rain from DC south thru S Md and OC . Heaviest amounts just se of DC on south and east from there Was kind of curious what the Euro was showing precip wise. Figured it had some decent totals being thrown into our region but with the limited maps I have it is hard to tell for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 I think its funny that the CMC is now showing it making a sharp right off OBX where it was all about the bay mauler last week. This thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: LWX is right about the ENS being further west and wetter btw. A lot of lows tucked into the coast on the EPS. GEFS was a little east of 0z but all within the envelope of reasonable solutions. No up the bay solutions lol, but rain seems like a decent bet. I guess we're watching the tropics for real today Wonder if the ensembles are wanting to tuck the low closer to the coast because of the marginal baroclinic zone (10-15 degree contrast) we see between the land temps and SST's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Would Harvey and Irma fujiwhara (I can't believe I spelled it correctly on the first shot!) despite the land masses in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Irma is expected to pretty quickly head north and east. Harvey isn't moving much. Pretty quickly the distance between them is probably going to be too great for anything of that nature. They might be close enough now but not for long. Not sure it has much to do with the landmasses between them as it does the fact that there is just distance in general between them. I could be wrong, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Irma is expected to pretty quickly head north and east. Harvey isn't moving much. Pretty quickly the distance between them is probably going to be too great for anything of that nature. They might be close enough now but not for long. Not sure it has much to do with the landmasses between them as it does the fact that there is just distance in general between them. I could be wrong, though. Yea, both systems are also pretty weak. Imo, it would depend on the timing of the strengthening/ re-strengthening of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 12z NAM through 25 has rain over the area... heavy band in SE MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Robust for sure. PTC 10 needs to get its act together off the coast though. Looks like 2-4" across the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Meh, if it's gonna just be some breezy showers I'd prefer not to interrupt this stretch of 70s and low humidity. Back to Harvey though, really don't like the look of this current band training Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Panasonic rain through early Wednesday. Stronger low heading off NC coast. Is that 4-6 inches of rain just to our SE? Wow... I could see FFW issued for SE MD if NAM holds its QPF predictions at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 2pm adv still PT10 per NHC... recon ongoing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Probably too far east... but Harvey remnants at 120-144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 28, 2017 Author Share Posted August 28, 2017 The classic end of run tease from the 12z ECWMF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, George BM said: The classic end of run tease from the 12z ECWMF. Yeah... but that's a big trough at 240... wouldn't it get the boot out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Panasonic rain through early Wednesday. Stronger low heading off NC coast. Might be time to revive the southern MD / lower shore thread- I've been watching this closely over the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 So I'm looking at that rain map and thinking "wow, that's a ton of rain" but then remembered I've been staring at Harvey rain total maps which have the scale cranked up so high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Yeah... but that's a big trough at 240... wouldn't it get the boot out to sea? Nope. It'll tilt negative and capture the storm like Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 42 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Nope. It'll tilt negative and capture the storm like Sandy. My first thought. lol GFS has had a fish in the same time frame for multiple runs so it looks like the wave coming out of africa right now has some consensus at getting organzied. Not a fan of the LW conus pattern though. Another one of those miracle longshot perfect timing types of windows. Hopefully we're still discussing how it might hit the US in 8 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My first thought. lol GFS has had a fish in the same time frame for multiple runs so it looks like the wave coming out of africa right now has some consensus at getting organzied. Not a fan of the LW conus pattern though. Another one of those miracle longshot perfect timing types of windows. Hopefully we're still discussing how it might hit the US in 8 days or so. I was mostly being a weenie about it. But with that said, that is a really sharp trough and it does have a bit of "the look" of maybe going negative and doing some funky stuff. Not worth discussing quite yet as it's in the long, long range. I don't have access to any very good Euro maps other than the passable stuff on TT so I have no idea how that trough looks other than the basic 500 maps on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 As long as we can blame the rain on Irma it's a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Nam was meh. But the rgem really amped up rain amounts:Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 RGEM and Euro look breezy with 1-2" here. Most other guidance would have a half inch or so here. I will take that. Have not had any appreciable rainfall in almost 10 days, when nearly 3" fell. Its feast or famine for the most part this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Sharp cutoff on 00z NAM... .5 QPF line runs BR... 1" around I-95... SE MD around 2", maybe slightly more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Maybe the warm SST's have something to do with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Looks to be a soaker of a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 The Euro has a very interesting track for the potential system coming across the Atlantic. Has it gaining latitude and then drops it back SW it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The Euro has a very interesting track for the potential system coming across the Atlantic. Has it gaining latitude and then drops it back SW it seems. Come onnnnnn Isabel 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Come onnnnnn Isabel 2.0 NHC has it at 70/90 now. Pretty rapid increase from prior days. Euro has been pretty consistent with tracking it WNW into the vicinity of the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Yeah - anything that gets organized as far east as 93L is is usually fish food. Of course there's some notable exceptions but that's the exception rather than the rule. The Euro being consistent with getting it at least semi far west is enough to hold my interest. Plus...I have nothing else to be excited about. Snooze fest continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.