The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

[showmethesnow]

After glancing over the last few runs of the GFS and the Euro (limited access to the Euro unfortunately) I have a couple of takeaways. Looks as if the Euro caved into the GFS as far as potential coastal impact with both now showing it coming ashore in the general Texas/Louisiana state line region. Think the hangup with the Euro has been to show the initial development to occur farther south around the Yucatan peninsula vs.the GFS's farther north solution. This farther south development on the Euro never allowed the system to escape the easterly flow thus we were seeing it take the system due east into Mexico. Once the Euro did pick up on the farther north solution it then came in line with the GFS.

After coastal impact we are seeing the GFS come in with a farther north track which drives the remnants through our region (DC/Balt) vs the Euro with a southern solution that takes them through the VA/N Car. region. These differing tracks can most likely be attributed to the stronger SE ridging we are seeing on the GFS. 

As far as impacts neither solution offers much in the way of substantial impact for the DC/Balt region in my mind, with a moderate rain probably the best case scenario. Even though the GFS drives the remnants directly through our region it is mitigated substantially by the fact it is coming to us from almost due west which allows the mountains to take a heavy toll as they wring out the moisture. The Euro solution on the other hand leaves us on the north side of the remnants with a very limited ability to have the tropical moisture drawn into our region. I will say though, that the Euro solution has the potential to be somewhat meaningful for extreme southern portions of the region (South Va into the Carolina's). The best case out of both of these solutions may very well be a middle of the road one. 

One thing I will be watching in the next day or 2 is where this system actually makes landfall. At this point it is too far west to expect anything too meaningful for our region but bring it a little east into New Orleans or Miss. state line and I think we would have much better potential.

[showmethesnow]

25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like a west jog on most recent  cone and spaghetti model tracks as well. 

Tried to post . Keeps posting old 7pm from yesterday but definitely a move west consensus. 

 

Noticed that. We really need to see that come back east if we hope to see anything of substance for our region.

[Eskimo Joe]

The new NHC maps are nice.  I like how you can toggle on/off the track and wind field.

[mappy]

it can rain sunday. not saturday. thanks. 

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

We need to root for a CMC type solution ..further east landfall..some members spoke of this. It's looking more and more like that's the ticket for local impact .

Couple things I don't like much about any impact is that it's only a TS at landfall so the center of circ is going to disintegrate fairly quickly over land. The upper level energy looks to get sheared apart with the approaching front so that's a net negative too. 

Don't get me wrong, we could get some good rain out of it but it won't have much of a tropical feel like other gulf landfalls where the storm is much stronger and more organized at landfall. With those there's still upper level and low level circulation associated with the system as it either approaches or crosses our latitude. Those type of events typically have discrete cells popping and training east of the center. This particular event looks like basic overrunning rain associated with a frontal passage that is enhanced with tropical moisture. 

 

 

[yoda]

This looks decent to get rain/tropical moisture into our region

 

[Eskimo Joe]

40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

With the latest burst of organization, we have Cindy! 999mb with 45mph winds. 

 

[yoda]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
254 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Moisture and perhaps circulation from the remnants of Tropical Storm
Cindy look to be drawn toward the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front
that is expected to cross the area Friday night into Saturday. This
could produce enhanced rainfall Friday until the cold frontal
passage over the Mid-Atlantic.

Once the cold front passes, 12Z GFS/ECMWF suggest weak surface high
pressure over the area for the rest of the outlook period.

[Kmlwx]

Brown ocean effect

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, I don't disagree. Your post is great because I'm still learning what makes for a good tropical setup here. All lows approaching the region are not created equally. When I was in SNE it was pretty simple (and maybe easier). I think we're playing with bootleg tropical as things currently stand. For June...when severe season has taken a turn for the meh and people are wearing sackcloth and ashes for lack of rain...this is the best we've got I guess. 

 

I'm just a hack with tropical but there are some general features for a gulf landfall that we need to have tropical impact that actually looks and feels tropical. We need a strong storm #1 and this won't hit that criteria. SW upper level steering flow with weak ridging is another. Can't have the storm dilly dally through the deep south over land. It needs to beeline. This sorta has that. 

Getting absorbed into a feature embedded in the westerlies works well for heavy rain but we all want low level clouds screaming along and a defined center keeping things unstable to "get the tropical feel" going. The biggest disadvantage to a gulf landfall is the thousand miles of land a strom has to cover. Much better when you get a cat 5 right up the mouth of the bay and a left turn at point lookout. 

[das]

Time sensitive; nice gravity waves propagating westward in this GOES-16 loop at the very bottom of the Mississippi River delta:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_02_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=200&loop_speed_ms=80

[showmethesnow]

Looks as if the GFS is moving towards the Euro's more southern track of the remnants. Thus we are seeing the swath of heavier precip adjusting south as well. QPF totals continue to be unimpressive on the latest run with .5" or less through the Balt/DC region. Though any rain is welcome it doesn't look as if it will put a substantial dent into the drought conditions we are experiencing.

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Cindy's not having a good morning and the trend is not our friend. NAM does try to get some heavy stuff in here, but...NAM.

Was just looking down the road to see if there was a next. Doesn't look promising for anything off the coast of Africa through day 15 (and possibly beyond) at this point but we are still a little early in the season for that anyway. With a High settling in over the central and eastern Atlantic it is creating a flow that is forcing any impulses that could possibly seed a storm to far south. If we could get a somewhat vigorous impulse to bust through that road block the conditions are somewhat favorable for development in the central and eastern Atlantic as it reaches warmer water. So that is always a possibility. At this point though I think our best chances probably lie in a home brew. Which is normally the case this time of year anyway. Conditions seem somewhat favorable for something possibly developing in the Gulf or northern Caribbean islands. Now whether something does is another story. Southern Caribbean doesn't look promising though as there is a fairly fast flow there through the period.

Considering I am more a casual observer when it comes to tropical then anything else I would be interested on hearing your more knowledgeable take.

[mappy]

Good. No rain wanted this weekend


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tater Tot]

12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GOES-16 imagery will never get old.

I know! I hope we get a cat5 this year within good range of it to look at in full GOES-16 glory. Or even just a RI'ing cat 4 with lots of eyewall lightning captured by the GLM. 

[yoda]

11AM track has the remnants of Cindy going south of us it looks like... 7 AM SAT position is in SW VA

[mappy]

GRR. If it moves out before 1pm, I can deal. 

[das]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep.. Euro has Cindy maintain strength over land a little more and looks a touch quicker and probably the most noticeable change looking at Wxbell is the northern expanse of the precip field . Gets 1 -1.5" in our yards with a couple 2" lollies verbatim. 700 + 850 moisture feeds look more condensed and deeper  as the precip comes in the area...fwiw. crazy Pwats too

I wonder if the Euro bias towards (relative) wetness of the coupled soil-moisture / atmosphere boundary in the SW is coming into play here as Cindy maintains some strength post-landfall in the runs.  There has been no real significant rainfall in the region recently and the soil moisture is on average only at 50% capacity in the top 10cm layer with correspondingly low numbers for plant transpiration.  An example of this effect is the dry air that entrained on the left side of the storm today and moved around the internal core throughout the day.

[das]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Does that mean that the Euro is essentially overdoing the strength of any remnants and precip potential?

It means that it is a known bias in the US Southwest on the Euro so it very well may be.

[showmethesnow]

The 18Z GFS has come in even wetter for the remnants of Cindy. Now shows a narrow strip of 2+ inches through central MD. Would love to see this but I think we are more likely to see closer to the 1/2 inch totals being advertised previously then the totals GFS has thrown out the last few runs. From past experience these type of setups almost always under-perform and quite often substantially. For my gardens sake I hope I am wrong. For Mappy's sake I hope I am right.

Does anybody have the qpf from the Euro? Curious if it is in line withe the bigger numbers the GFS is now throwing out.

 

[mappy]

I'm hoping the 18z gfs is way wrong. Gotta make a call by tomorrow evening whether to cancel the party we've got planned for Saturday, so here's hoping tomorrow trends better in terms of less rain

[showmethesnow]

00Z GFS has backed off somewhat on the rainfall. GFS now shows 3/4" to 1.5 inches for the central MD region with the max strip moved southward from earlier runs through DC running up towards southern Jersey. This is vs the 18z which had 1.25" to 2.5" with the max strip running through the northern counties and the Pa/Md line, and the 12Z with a similar max strip though the northern counties and totals of 1.25 to 1.75".  

GEFS has also followed with a southward progression of the max strip through DC towards southern Jersey vs its earlier runs of running that through southern PA and the Mason Dixon line. Rainfall totals are somewhat comparable to prior runs with .75" to 1.25" falling through the DC/Balt corridor.

[showmethesnow]

@WxWatcher007 Might have spoken too soon yesterday about the prospects of seeing something come off the African coast. The last couple of runs of the GFS now show a somewhat vigorous impulse coming off the coast, roughly 3 days from now, which is allowed to turn northward as it finds a weakness with a slackening of the Southwest flow. Manages to hold it together across the Atlantic before finally killing it off just east of the leeward islands. Still somewhat early but you never know and at least it would give us something to follow. Would be pretty impressive if something were to come of it though, considering how far south it exits off of the African continent.

[mappy]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

00Z GFS has backed off somewhat on the rainfall. GFS now shows 3/4" to 1.5 inches for the central MD region with the max strip moved southward from earlier runs through DC running up towards southern Jersey. This is vs the 18z which had 1.25" to 2.5" with the max strip running through the northern counties and the Pa/Md line, and the 12Z with a similar max strip though the northern counties and totals of 1.25 to 1.75".  

GEFS has also followed with a southward progression of the max strip through DC towards southern Jersey vs its earlier runs of running that through southern PA and the Mason Dixon line. Rainfall totals are somewhat comparable to prior runs with .75" to 1.25" falling through the DC/Balt corridor.

06z GFS shifted that max area slightly NW. was about .2 IMBY, now closer to .3 or so. that cutoff tho is crazy. I know we need the rain, so I don't want to be a deb and wish it wasn't coming. But I'd be okay if it was out of here by 1pm. Is that too much to ask? 

 

... Euro has the bulk of the rain in the AM, out of the central MD area by 1pm. 

[showmethesnow]

50 minutes ago, mappy said:

06z GFS shifted that max area slightly NW. was about .2 IMBY, now closer to .3 or so. that cutoff tho is crazy. I know we need the rain, so I don't want to be a deb and wish it wasn't coming. But I'd be okay if it was out of here by 1pm. Is that too much to ask? 

 

... Euro has the bulk of the rain in the AM, out of the central MD area by 1pm. 

I wish you luck this weekend. Know how that goes. Have had 3 camping trips planned this year so far that have taken a hard hit because of rain. One we outright canceled and the other two were raining 50-75% of the time. Kind of a bummer.

Wish I could justify spending the money on the Euro but during the summer I find I am often too busy with other things to really get my moneys worth. 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I love tropical, but I'm not following a fish storm  

And you consider yourself a hard core tropical fan. You don't hold a candle to us snow freaks that project possible snowstorms beyond the 15 day GFS range. 

[showmethesnow]

The 00Z GFS has followed the 18z with the shifting north of Cindy's remnants into central PA. Heaviest rain we see is confined MD/PA line and northward with 1 inch totals straddling the Mason Dixon. The Balt/DC corridor now see .5 inch totals or less with most of it falling through this evening when you get south and east of 95. The 12 K Nam shows much more promise with a strip of 2 to 3 inches through central MD though it should be taken with caution because run to run consistency has not been there. The 3K NAM falls in line with the GFS with .5" totals around DC  and roughly an inch around the MD/PA line. Also shows much of the rain falling through this evening for the southern portions of the region. 

Throwing out the 12K NAM, which I don't trust or believe at this point, the Euro actually looks to be the most promising for our region. The latest Euro has shifted the track north somewhat as to where we now see a fairly energetic impulse run through southern/central MD. The overall track actually closely mirrors my middle of the road  thoughts between the GFS and the Euro from several days ago that I felt had the most promise for our region. With this setup and track I would think the max strip would fall within MD and would not be surprised if we saw 1 to 2 inch totals with possible lollys of more embedded within it. But with very limited access to the Euro maps and at 24 hour increments at that there is quite a bit of conjecture and speculation on my part.

Edit: RGEM has 1"-1.5+ inches for the DC/Balt corridor with the max strip setting up just north of the cities.

[mattie g]

American models aren't too keen on bigger rains in the immediate DC area. RGEM has a good strip of precip from Harrisonburg up through Philly and bullseyes DC-Baltimore tomorrow morning. I'll trust others on Euro output.

[H2O]

we get the best tropical remnants ever

[showmethesnow]

24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The cmc HRDPS 2.5k puts down 2 - 2.5" DC through Baltimore corridor fwiw. 

Euro has been consistent with its qpf placement last few runs...continues to show 1-1.7" for areas from Just  south of DC to the M /D line all though  I note it did skim back slightly. 

 

 

Not familiar with the CMC HRDPS. Does it have any skill with tropical?  

You noted that the Euro cut back a touch on it's rainfall from it's previous run which is somewhat interesting in my mind because I thought the track and setup was actually a little better then previously.

 

21 minutes ago, H2O said:

we get the best tropical remnants ever

If we get over an inch I will consider it a win just for my garden and lawn's sake. Otherwise if tropical Remnants don't produce, at the bare minimum 3-4 inches, then it is a fail in my book.