Amped Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 3"/hr rates with that band in SW houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Maybe even spotty 4"/ hr It's strengthening as it moves east. If the HRRR is right Houston is 90% underwater by noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Nam west for 92L... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 00z NAM is going to be a lulz run with Irma/tropical low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z NAM is going to be a lulz run with Irma/tropical low Looks like it also takes Harvey back sub 980. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Thats a pretty tight rain shield on 92L/Irma at 66... SE VA gets walloped... Eastern Shore doesn't look much better Gets kicked out to sea at 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Harvey makes landfall again in SW LA at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 NAM kicks Irma out still. You know you're out of the game if you can't even get a NAMing. Maybe we can get Harvey to still give us some remnants. I guess I'll punt for any new waves coming across the atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: NAM kicks Irma out still. You know you're out of the game if you can't even get a NAMing. Maybe we can get Harvey to still give us some remnants. I guess I'll punt for any new waves coming across the atl. Nam went more northwest from 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Nam went more northwest from 18z run. But it still kicks it. And it's the NAM at range. I'm mostly confident that DC proper won't get a ton of excitement from Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The only hope at the beaches. Maybe breezes and rain showers inland IMO. Yep. Fully expecting a snooze-fest here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Another line forming west of the incredible band exiting Houston. ..could get real ugly there overnight Are you watching the live feed? Lots of idiots out there driving through flood waters. http://www.khou.com/news/live_stream/khou-live-video/94483732 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Something screwy going on with the GFS precip calculations for Harvey this run, i think. Hard to imagine Houston only getting 2 inches of rain in the next 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 After looking at the 00Z and now the 06Z I am not really sure I trust it at this point in regards to 92L. 00Z had it just inland riding up from the GA/FL line all the way up to OBX before reentering the ocean and yet we saw a 11 mb drop in pressures from 1007 to 996. The 06Z now has it even farther inland on it's trip up the coast and we are still seeing pressure drops of 7 mb. While not earth shattering pressure drops they are hardly what I would expect to see from a tropical system with its center of circulation over land for such an extended period of time. Not an expert at hybrid systems but to the best of my knowledge that doesn't look to be the case here. We do see a little more interaction with the system and the trough dropping in from the Midwest later in the period then we see on the other models so maybe this is coming into play with the development on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 06Z GFS took a step back. Center of circulation never even touches land before it exits OTS from southern portions of OBX. Shows precip just to the mouth of the bay up to OC. Edit: Looking at the 500's and we see a slightly deeper more positive tilted Midwest trough on this run which is probably accounting for the adjustment of the system to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 I've got a buddy in the NW Houston 'burbs. Says they're doing OK, but like most, they're completely trapped if they would need to escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah still not sure if the NAM can be believed but I think we might be splitting hairs at this point. Always hard to tell where an ivt sets up so that remains worth watching. As for development--I'm a tropics rather than subtropics guy, but my guess is that the low is absorbed sooner, which allows it to develop through the baroclinic process, rather than tropical. That would make land interaction mostly irrelevant I think. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. We do see a somewhat decent surface temp gradient with the land mass vs. the ocean (10-15 degrees?) so there is that. But we don't see a decent temp contrast @ 850's until it reaches around OBX and the 700's are uniform until later in the period where it looks as if the system is transitioning well out at sea. But I am not even sure how much that plays into it when you are dealing with a warm core system anyway. Do we see the same type of baroclinic processes occur with a warm core vs. a cold core? I myself have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 I'm waiting patiently for the regulars of this thread to comment on the 12z gfs. Looks more interesting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 As much as we all obsess on big time weather events, I would NEVER want to have a Harvey like storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, H2O said: As much as we all obsess on big time weather events, I would NEVER want to have a Harvey like storm here I get nervous when the winds top 50 mph (huge trees surround my house) and we see more then 3-4 inches of rain (Just finishing the total gutting and new build out and water proofing in my basement) that I would gladly skip myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 54 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'm waiting patiently for the regulars of this thread to comment on the 12z gfs. Looks more interesting to me. Was walking out the door so only had a quick glance but it looked to be within the envelope of solutions it has been spitting out recently. At this point it looks to be pretty much locked in on an ob x exit so the question becomes how far of an influence will the system have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 I wouldn't want to have one day of Harvey. None the less 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Euro is Houstons worst nightmare. ..just a crush job I take it you still are paying for the full Euro output? That's good to know. Now I know who i can hit up for information on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Starts taking Harvey's remnants east eventually too. That's new. Pulls a Houdini though and the circulation is mostly gone at the surface it seems by the next frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Ocmd getting involved with some wind with this run too.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Little further west on the GFS with some more moisture. Trough setup has improved somewhat and we are getting a little better interaction with the trough now. Might be enough to put OC in play for some semi-decent tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Nam a huge step towards coastal impacts for Delmarva. WowSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 The overnight run of the RGEM puts a little pop into our region for 92L (Irma?) Gets tropical force winds just off shore and upwards of 5 inches on the eastern shore. We also see 1 to 2 inches through the DC/Balt region extending all the way into Washington county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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