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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


George BM

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Nam was right with Harvey

Lets see the other models jump on board

     It's worth noting that while the 18z GFS kept the low much further east, it was still trying to give us a decent rainfall early next week due to strong easterly flow to the north of that low.

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10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Do you think there's any chance we get a strong enough trough/ridge combo to bring 92L closer to the region? Not necessarily an up the bay track lol, but closer to get impacts toward the beaches? Not sure why I've been so intrigued by this, but some of the models have been hinting at stronger ridging to the east that has had the result (I think) of keeping 92L closer to the SE coast before getting kicked. 

 

     At 84 hours out, it's certainly possible that the NAM is right, but for now it seems to be the only model that backs the upper flow sufficiently ahead of that digging midwest trough to pull that Atlantic low back in towards the coast.

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

     At 84 hours out, it's certainly possible that the NAM is right, but for now it seems to be the only model that backs the upper flow sufficiently ahead of that digging midwest trough to pull that Atlantic low back in towards the coast.

GGEM has come pretty close last two runs.

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1 minute ago, eurojosh said:

GGEM has come pretty close last two runs.

 

 fair point, but it's also much faster.     A lot to sort out here....   and as noted earlier, even the GFS without getting the low anywhere near the mid-Atlantic coast is still trying to set up a rain event for us.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

When trying to identify backing upper flow on the guidance, what specifically am I looking for? 

Definitely not hanging my hat on the NAM or Canadian:yikes: though there have been scattered runs of the GFS and Euro bringing the low closer to the coast--at least in the SE.  

 

    Backing in this case means that the mid-level steering flow has more of a southerly component (where the other solutions would have more of a westerly or southwesterly component).    If you compare the 00z NAM f78 vs. the 18z GFS v84 at 500 mb, the differences are pretty clear.

 

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20 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

 fair point, but it's also much faster.     A lot to sort out here....   and as noted earlier, even the GFS without getting the low anywhere near the mid-Atlantic coast is still trying to set up a rain event for us.

GFS looks like a step in the right direction. LP not well organized, but hugging the coast.

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4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Kicked near the outer banks too. Idk...we'll see what happens as it develops but I'm not holding my breath. Still watching though.

I guess rain and breezes would be a win but certainly a waste of potential if it played out like this. 

Late night? :) 

As that Mid-West trough has been depicted now and for awhile I don't hold out much hope seeing 92L (Irma?) come much farther north then OBX. The southwesterly flow in front of it just will not allow it. But we still have roughly 4 days or so to sort things out. Besides watching for the obvious stronger SE Atlantic ridging, I will be keeping an eye on how models handle that trough in the coming days. If the trough doesn't drop as far south as now depicted we will probably see a corresponding northward movement of 92 before it gets shunted out to sea. Ditto, if the trough slows down somewhat. One other thing is to keep an eye on the tilt of the trough. Right now it is positive but if we were to see more of a neutral look I think we would also see an adjustment northward as we would get a more southerly component to the flow.

Anyway you slice it though IMO the chances of us seeing anything of substance in our region (besides the far southern coastal regions) are pretty slim without seeing somewhat major changes on what is being modeled now.

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Followed the main Tropical page a little over the last couple of days. I was very impressed by some of the very knowledgeable Mets and non-Mets within the Harvey thread. It has been so many years since I have really followed tropical it was an eye opener to find out how far the science has advanced and correspondingly how little I know. I have to give them a hand.

On the other hand. How many times do we have to hear, 'Death, Doom, Destruction', 'Everyone is going to die', 'Evacuate Texas', 'Biblical rainfall', 'Politicians and Officials are clueless and suck' and so on and so on? For every good/great post there were 10, if not 20, trash heap posts. And this was after Mods had already axed the worst of the worst. Also, why do people feel the need to attack someone and their reasoned opinion for the sole fact it runs counter to their desire for the ultimate storm? If you can counter their reasoning then do so, if not then just STFU and cease with the endless posts attacking them. 

Sorry to be venting but I just get so tired of spending quite a bit of time tracking the weather waiting for these rare events only to have all these jackholes pop out of the woodwork every time, completely trashing the threads.

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