cae Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Models are indicating that some places in Texas could see 40+ inches of rain from Harvey. To put that in perspective, from 1981-2010 DC averaged less than 40 inches precipitation per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: What am I missing here? Why is there such a huge difference between the actual real time pressures (10+ mbs lower) then the pressures that are being displayed on the initialization on the models? I understand there is some lag, time wise, and we are seeing rapid intensification, but 10 mb and in some cases 15+mb difference? Edit: Just looked at the CMC and it has 988mb at 6 hours when we are already seeing 948 or even less. 40mb difference and that isn't even taking into account the time difference. I was just thinking exactly the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 50% development odds now for 92L CMC is failing us. please call Canada and tell them to make it come 100 miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: If I could... Low chance deal for any impacts, but it's kinda interesting to see something pop along the coast, right? That could just be me. you can see the anti-USA bias and love for Canada as it goes due N into Cape Cod. SNE getting a cane before us is just wrong. Like Dallas winning a SB wrong. Like putting mustard on a hot dog wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, H2O said: you can see the anti-USA bias and love for Canada as it goes due N into Cape Cod. SNE getting a cane before us is just wrong. Like Dallas winning a SB wrong. Like putting mustard on a hot dog wrong. I figured you for a ketchup and hot dog man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: What am I missing here? Why is there such a huge difference between the actual real time pressures (10+ mbs lower) then the pressures that are being displayed on the initialization on the models? I understand there is some lag, time wise, and we are seeing rapid intensification, but 10 mb and in some cases 15+mb difference? Edit: Just looked at the CMC and it has 988mb at 6 hours when we are already seeing 948 or even less. 40mb difference and that isn't even taking into account the time difference. 20 minutes ago, mattie g said: I was just thinking exactly the same. Guess no one here has the answer to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: I figured you for a ketchup and hot dog man. damn right. Murica! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Ain't no party like an is-the-eyewall-undergoing-replacement-argument party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Wow...Euro has Harvey STILL in Texas at day 7 When the rainmaps look like our BECS snowmaps, that's how you know it's gonna be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Nobody does it any better than Louis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 It's okay folks: Quote It's ok. Without government interference, this would be a Cat4. In the 60s and 70s, probably not, given everything about this storm, but the waters are super warm these days and anything can become major hurricane-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: When the rainmaps look like our BECS snowmaps, that's how you know it's gonna be ugly. Speaking of snow, I wonder how many winter enthusiasts will admit that they converted that to snow fall? And the diehards out of that group converted it by 15 to 1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Speaking of snow, I wonder how many winter enthusiasts will admit that they converted that to snow fall? And the diehards out of that group converted it by 15 to 1 ratios. 1 inch of liquid this winter is going to sound so paltry this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 This will be a good radar for watching landfall. For those of you that are into that kind of thing http://www.khou.com/weather/corpus-christi-radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I hope we get some kind of (non catastrophic) tropical this season because I think winter is going to be a disaster. C'mon man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: C'mon man. I see indications of hella NA blocking on the last several runs of the CFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I know I've just been so pessimistic lately man. Can't buy a cold season block and hope for a Nino is fading. I so hope I'm wrong. Back on topic. Remember when some though this would be a boring period? Because last winter wasn't enough of a snowless hell? Boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I know I've just been so pessimistic lately man. Can't buy a cold season block and hope for a Nino is fading. I so hope I'm wrong. Back on topic. Remember when some thought this would be a boring period? I remember when Amped said that a 10mb lessening in strength on one GFS run was an indication that a weakening trend was starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 18z NAM has Irma (i guess its tropical by then) just SE of CHS in SC at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 GFS improved somewhat for 92L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 So Harvey might make landfall twice in south Texas? Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 51 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Feel like I'm grasping, but the GFS had 92L closer to the SE coast that the 12z run. Still heads OTS of course, but maybe there's some "enhanced" rain as the kicker comes through? Looks breezy too. Ha! Winchester Bullseye. Feels like winter already!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Cat 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Rain showers. Oh, you meant Harvey. Cat 4. So, are you going to get any sleep tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Port Aransas just had a 90 mph gust per TWC Just saw that. I'd love to be hanging out with Jim Cantore in Corpus Christi. They are showing a beautiful visible satellite right now. Eye wall is getting ready to start buzz sawing the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Kind of hoping it'll speed up so we can see the effects of landfall while there's still some daylight. EDIT: This link was prolly posted already, but what a beautiful sight: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev%2Flindsey%2Floops%2F25aug17_band2&image_width=640&image_height=480&loop_speed_ms=40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 Harvey is crawling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 The amount of water from the sky is already ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah. It'll be interesting to see how far inland it gets. We know it's going to crawl, but if it is able to get back out over the Gulf and reintensify a bit that would be really bad. Honestly, the best solution would be the trough being stronger than currently modeled and kicking this thing northeast. Yeah and another nightmare would be if it stalls right along the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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