WinterWxLuvr Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Maybe. Those winds are going to try to catch up to the pressure drops eventually. Tonight could be really interesting. I'm certainly no expert but the satellite images suggest, IMO, that this is undergoing rapid intensification. Reminds me of Charley and how it tightened up and intensified before it hit Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 I think govt seeding is what causes the eye to form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 We may see cat 3 by the 11 advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Preferred links (and settings) for GOES-16 loops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, I think it's off to the races again. Only things that could slow it down right now IMO are the dry air outside the main area of convection and winds taking their time to catch up to the pressure falls. This thing is cranking right now. Awful situation for Texas. Hard to believe some of the rain amounts predicted in parts of South Texas well east of I 35 http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=crp Click on local products. The SWATH of heavy rains, if it verifies will be horrific in terms of flooding and property damage. People in that part of the world have lots of livestock. There are tons of horses in Buda. Heavy rainfall is expected through much of the area with rainfall totals of 15 to 25 inches east of Interstate 37 with isolated amounts around 35 inches possible. Lesser amounts are expected further west and southwest. These numbers and locations are subject to change depending on the exact location of landfall along the Texas coast. Flash flooding is possible with these high rainfall totals. The heaviest rains are expected to occur early Friday through Saturday night and possibly into early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 http://www.weather.gov/ewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 I'm tossing the entire 18z GFS/GEFS run because it crushed my hopes and dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 So I may be going down to the texas coast to intercept. Where should I book a place on the coast to put me near ground zero for wind/flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 30 minutes ago, Subtropics said: So I may be going down to the texas coast to intercept. Where should I book a place on the coast to put me near ground zero for wind/flooding? Better get moving. It's more than a short drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 So is the EURO being affected more by the LP or tropical system on the west coast of Mexico than the GFS thus being positioned more to the NE and forcing it back into the GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 You guys know I am strictly a winter storm guy. But I had to make a stop in here because those rain totals are like nothing I have ever seen before. Can anyone point me to ANY historical storm that has dropped 60 inches of rain in one spot before? It does appear the wettest storms in history tend to occur in TX due to a stalled TC. (Amelia 1978 and Claudette 1979) But these model runs are just outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: You guys know I am strictly a winter storm guy. But I had to make a stop in here because those rain totals are like nothing I have ever seen before. Can anyone point me to ANY historical storm that has dropped 60 inches of rain in one spot before? Hurricane Mitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Technically, its unofficial though https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Mitch While moving slowly for several days offshore Honduras, Hurricane Mitch drew moisture from the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, producing high amounts of rainfall of over 300 mm (12 in) per day. [8]The highest official total was 928 mm (36.5 in) at Choluteca, which represented more than half of the annual precipitation average; at the same location, 466.7 mm (18.37 in) fell in a 24-hour period on October 31, which was more than double of the previous record set in 1985.[20] There were unofficial rainfall totals in Central America as high as 1,900 mm (75 in); rain gauges in mountainous areas were washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Anyone consider the possibility that Harvey Doesn't landfall in TX at all? It just stalls about 15 miles offshore and then finally drifts NE and hits LA? The Euro isn't far from doing this. I didn't want to post this in the main thread cause it would create a ****storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, Amped said: Anyone consider the possibility that Harvey Doesn't landfall in TX at all? It just stalls about 15 miles offshore and then finally drifts NE and hits LA? The Euro isn't far from doing this. I didn't want to post this in the main thread cause it would create a ****storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Looks like the GFS took a step towards the Euro. A little deeper this run, especially by hour 132. Never makes it to LA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, move to the Euro IMO, but not fully. Yet at least. It'll be interesting to see what the Ukie and Euro does tonight. UKIE takes it into TX, but on the way back out dissipates Harvey at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 GGEM is With Irma that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Probably too quick given the intensity of Harvey right now. Waiting on the Euro... Also, not sure why I'm still intrigued by 92L. As the NE folks alluded to earlier, there may be something wonky with how the guidance is handling its interaction with that front. Not saying it's a threat, but anything off the EC is something to keep an eye on. Tonights GGEM was run by Kevin (Damage in Tolland) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Aren't they all? Too bad its not winter time 970s Irma moving right up the EC and straight into SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 GFS has a 953mb striking the Texas coast. 32 NAM has a 966 MB. 12K has a 963 mb. And the higher resolution 3K has a 923mb. That is just shy of Cat 5 status. What do you say? Should we throw that out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: GFS has a 953mb striking the Texas coast. 32 NAM has a 966 MB. 12K has a 963 mb. And the higher resolution 3K has a 923mb. That is just shy of Cat 5 status. What do you say? Should we throw that out? Pressure on the latest update from the NHC is down to 958 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Just now, Rtd208 said: Pressure on the latest update from the NHC is down to 958 mb. Hmmm... Maybe I am being a little to quick throwing out the 3K. Has 12 -15 hours to reach 923 mb which would be a pretty impressive intensification though. Was just looking over some of the satellite images and it does look as if it is rapidly intensifying. Uniform convection around the eye is now present and it looks as if the eye itself has tightened quite a bit. Should be an interesting day following this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Hmmm... Maybe I am being a little to quick throwing out the 3K. Has 12 -15 hours to reach 923 mb which would be a pretty impressive intensification though. Was just looking over some of the satellite images and it does look as if it is rapidly intensifying. Uniform convection around the eye is now present and it looks as if the eye itself has tightened quite a bit. Should be an interesting day following this. Latest pressure from recon flight now down to 950 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/901024978010853376 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/901024978010853376 There's the link to that tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Here's that direct windfield link. Super cool stuff https://earth.nullschool.net Thanks. That's is an awesome link. You can really get in there close, too. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 What am I missing here? Why is there such a huge difference between the actual real time pressures (10+ mbs lower) then the pressures that are being displayed on the initialization on the models? I understand there is some lag, time wise, and we are seeing rapid intensification, but 10 mb and in some cases 15+mb difference? Edit: Just looked at the CMC and it has 988mb at 6 hours when we are already seeing 948 or even less. 40mb difference and that isn't even taking into account the time difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 With biblical rainfall amounts coming, I was curious and looked at Houston's summer rainfall so far, and they are running wet: June: 7.19 (+1.26) July: 6.29 (+2.5) August: 7.85 (+5.1) I wonder what the all-time record for summer rainfall and single event is there. OMG this is going to be ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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