mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 40" falls somewhere by Tuesday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I mean, strong hurricane crawling over the Gulf burying Houston with rain and pumping in storm surge through the bay. Now it is heading toward LA as a deepening storm at 120. This might be the most stunning (legit) model run I've seen since Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 The Euro forecast is devastating. If you're gonna need plywood or OSB, better go get it now before the prices go through the roof. I'm talking about here, not down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, H2O said: I literally had no idea what this meant until I just read the main thread. i hadn't until now. i only want to know if they are heirloom seeds or sunflower? Poppys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 This Euro run verified would literally be an unprecedented event. That's 4 straight days of TS-force winds on the Texas coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Does the eye actually completely go inland between 48 and 72 hr on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Weak low from what I can see right off the southern NC coast. Not much happening with it yet on the run. i don't think it will do much. By the time it pops the Bermuda high to the SE of 92L pops back up and will funnel it OTS as the GL low and leftover Harvey spin around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: Does the eye actually completely go inland between 48 and 72 hr on the Euro? yes. but barely. just hangs out along the coast, but on land, until hr 84 when its back over the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 This Euro run even gets Mississippi in on quite a bit of tree-damage-type winds, let alone the thrashing that Louisiana gets. It's just an insane run overall. Strong onshore winds for days in TX while dumping rain, causing river drainage problems on top of every other hazard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro more progressive this run may mean better shot at remnants. ..we'll see It kicks Irma out to sea Still too far west for my liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Looks like it on wxbell, but only by a hair. 7 minutes ago, mappy said: yes. but barely. just hangs out along the coast, but on land, until hr 84 when its back over the gulf Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 I still don't think modeling has a good handle with 92L yet.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Still too far west for my liking Better that way than too far east though right? I'm rooting for a tropical moisture plume getting engaged with a ML front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Better that way than too far east though right? I'm rooting for a tropical moisture plume getting engaged with a ML front. there is still a chance for something after 192 as the base of that trough gets down to the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 But I would love to see it run right up I-81 or over WVa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Just now, H2O said: But I would love to see it run right up I-81 or over WVa We're in the game for the next 3-5 days it seems. Wouldn't take much at all for a further east track. That type of adjustment usually comes easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: We're in the game for the next 3-5 days it seems. Wouldn't take much at all for a further east track. That type of adjustment usually comes easy. Get an Ivan like track. then we are game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 The 12Z Euro is terrorizing on so many ways. I could obviously see worse cases for the USA like a Cat 4/5 stall over Miami or New Orleans but this is a very bad situation. News media will be playing big catch up. Probably talking about a Cat 2 hurricane hitting Texas coast. The stall or re-emergence over the Gulf and the slow ENE trek is the scariest part... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Heh, Day 8 looks a little fun up here. Low slides east and gives us rain and breezy conditions verbatim. Fantasy range, but the idea makes sense in the long term. That was one hell of a Euro run lol. Nice lateral. lol. This is what I'm rooting for...LOL Remnant track east of the MS river with a mega plume of deep tropical moisture for 24-48 hours. Training rains and embedded severe the whole time. Then the UL center tracks overhead. Synoptic rains, winds, and severe as it passes to the coast. That's not too much to ask is it? If it is then this... Perfect track with the remnants running the apps. Trop force gusts and torrential rains as the center boogies through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Harvey has purged all the dry air from itself on the latest GOES 16 image...the center is completely nested within deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 BTW, everyone-- here's a good one to research for our area: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1896_Cedar_Keys_hurricane ...as in how did a 960-mb hurricane hitting the Gulf coast of FL manage to bring hurricane-force gusts up here with significant property damage and storm surge? Hazel-type extratropical transition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 12z ukie leaves harvey parked over TX and spins out. No second landfall or re-entry into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, gymengineer said: BTW, everyone-- here's a good one to research for our area: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1896_Cedar_Keys_hurricane ...as in how did a 960-mb hurricane hitting the Gulf coast of FL manage to bring hurricane-force gusts up here with significant property damage and storm surge? Hazel-type extratropical transition? Looks like real fast movement... and wow in DC (link in post above) In Washington, D.C., the storm's approach late on September 29 was marked by nearly continuous cloud to cloud lightning.[6] Five-minute sustained southerly winds reached 66 mph (106 km/h),[7] and peak gusts approached 100 mph (160 km/h); barometric pressure fell to 987 hPa (29.15 inHg). At the time, it was the worst storm to ever affect the city.[27][72] The winds brought down signs, awnings, trees, and brick walls, while unroofing homes, toppling church steeples, and shattering windows.[72] Electric, telegraph, and telephone utilities were lost.[15] The destruction was not uniform, as poorly built structures often survived unscathed in the vicinity of much stronger buildings that incurred significant damage.[76] It was deduced that the strongest gusts occurred in narrow "streaks".[27] Approximately 5,000 trees were destroyed in the city,[28] many of them being snapped 10 to 15 ft (3.0 to 4.6 m) above the ground.[7] Some of the worst damage occurred in cemeteries, such as the United States Soldiers' and Airmen's Home National Cemetery, where 300 trees were prostrated. In a few cases, the fallen trees unearthed underlying coffins.[77] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 24, 2017 Author Share Posted August 24, 2017 Needless to say Harvey is doing very well today. Hope people down there are prepared. As for us up here... Long range but, assuming that the track is right, I hope to see at least severe level wind gusts which has a little bit more than a 0% chance of happening . But still, if models do latch on to Harvey-Harv's remnants coming this way it will be interesting enough to track..... I guess........ Aaaaah you know I'll be tracking it anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 14 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like real fast movement... and wow in DC (link in post above) Also in VA and MD: Montgomery County was hit particularly hard; the storm wrecked an amusement park in Bethesda, forcing it to permanently close, while Gaithersburg was "most disastrously wrecked". --Coincidentally, this is also how I would describe my state on Friday nights in college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, George BM said: Needless to say Harvey is doing very well today. Hope people down there are prepared. As for us up here... Long range but, assuming that the track is right, I hope to see at least severe level wind gusts which has a little bit more than a 0% chance of happening . But still, if models do latch on to Harvey-Harv's remnants coming this way it will be interesting enough to track..... I guess........ Aaaaah you know I'll be tracking it anyways. I look at it like this...yes, we get the once a decade (or whatever) tropical that hits the EC and tracks up here. Most end up east of us so it's pretty boring. But EC hits are not very common with impacts through the cities and west. Gulf storms have a better history at giving us impacts through the cities and westward. Not as exciting as an NC landfall or something like that but Gulf storms can be pretty fun here if you have proper expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 24, 2017 Author Share Posted August 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I look at it like this...yes, we get the once a decade (or whatever) tropical that hits the EC and tracks up here. Most end up east of us so it's pretty boring. But EC hits are not very common with impacts through the cities and west. Gulf storms have a better history at giving us impacts through the cities and westward. Not as exciting as an NC landfall or something like that but Gulf storms can be pretty fun here if you have proper expectations. Very true. But I'm just an extreme wind weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 I'd love to see Harvey get ingested into the westerlies then come here and move very slowly. Floods are very fun. I am THE Quintessential flood weenie! Then a week later, we get to do it all over again! There's only one thing better than a life threatening devastating flood. TWO OF THEM! Kind of like Connie and Diane! Now that was two ladies that loved to par-tay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 24, 2017 Author Share Posted August 24, 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 242045 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 ...HARVEY HEADED TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 93.9W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been extended northeast of Matagorda to Sargent Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Sargent to High Island Texas * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 24, 2017 Author Share Posted August 24, 2017 Harvey is starting to clear out an eye this afternoon. Making a run a cat 2 status by the time next recon gets there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.