The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

[Kmlwx]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I currently like the Euro track progression more than the GFS, but I'm not a heavy hitter so please ignore this post. 

Where was this enthusiasm during severe season?

Don't mistake this for enthusiasm  - I'll probably be back in EJ mode very soon. I'm so bored. The storms I drove through down to SC Fri night helped though...they were FIERCE. 

[Kmlwx]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Oh I see. Desperation. Powerful stuff.  

Yes.  I am going for chaos theory now. I figure if I post enough weenie style posts the server will heat up just enough to pull a tropical system directly overhead. Though I'm not even sure the server is located here. So that might be a losing strategy. 

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Would you toss any chance at Harvey's remnants for a 50% chance for a direct hit from 92L or would you toss 92L to have a 70% chance at Harvey's remnants?

That would depend on what type of strike 92L would be. If it would be some weak POS - I'd go with the Harvey option. If we are going to get something like Isabel than 92L for sure. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Would you toss any chance at Harvey's remnants for a 50% chance for a direct hit from 92L or would you toss 92L to have a 70% chance at Harvey's remnants?

What if you want to toss both?  Where does that put you?

[H2O]

12z GFS gets Harvey to 938 right before landfall.  Impressive.

[H2O]

thats solid CAT4 btw

[yoda]

No fun GGEM run for this afternoon  

[H2O]

the CMC was who we thought it was.  no wall of HP in the ATL to make it go up the Chessie.  One person will be very unhappy with this run.

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, H2O said:

the CMC was who we thought it was.  no wall of HP in the ATL to make it go up the Chessie.  One person will be very unhappy with this run.

Heh, if you're referring to me the Canadian is garbage for tropical systems.  I just lol at it.

[H2O]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Heh, if you're referring to me the Canadian is garbage for tropical systems.  I just lol at it.

Nah, it wasn't towards you.  it was for someone else.  

 

But i was ready to admit that the CMC was the first to nail Irene2017 like the Euro nailed Sandy.

[Eskimo Joe]

NHC officially ups Harvey to a Cat 1 w/ 80 mph winds.

[mappy]

CMC FAILED ME.

 

Harvey looks goooooood

[Eskimo Joe]

Quote

000

URNT12 KNHC 241706

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL092017
A. 24/16:35:40Z
B. 24 deg 17 min N
  093 deg 28 min W
C. 850 mb 1254 m
D. 59 kt
E. 177 deg 7 nm
F. 284 deg 53 kt
G. 185 deg 11 nm
H. 981 mb
I. 16 C / 1522 m
J. 22 C / 1529 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C24
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 1209A HARVEY             OB 22
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 87 KT 032 / 14 NM 16:41:10Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 285 / 4 KT
MAX OUTBOUND SFMR WIND 77 KT 028 / 11 NM 16:40:00Z
;

 

[Bob Chill]

Still a lot of time for the 850 0c line to adjust southeast for the remnants. 

 

[H2O]

CMC and GFS still have 92L chances.  Now would be the time we need the HP to the north to slide east like it does every goddamn winter storm.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Pretty extreme wording on the local statements along the Texas coast

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of
equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts
to secure properties should now be brought to completion.
- Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury,
loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe
shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.

[Bob Chill]

GEFS is pretty unanimous as re-entering the gulf @ D5 with a second landfall near the TX/LA border. Consensus track is actually too far west but at 7+ day leads who cares. Still firmly in the game for remnants and the center passing west. 

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS is pretty unanimous as re-entering the gulf @ D5 with a second landfall near the TX/LA border. Consensus track is actually too far west but at 7+ day leads who cares. Still firmly in the game for remnants and the center passing west. 

Yea I'm decently intrigued for remnants...would be a good consolation prize.

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

How far west is too far west generally when looking at significant impacts in this region? Ohio? West Virginia?

Tricky question because things like interaction with troughs and fronts makes a huge difference. There are 2 things we can do well with when dealing with remnants. The synoptic stuff is always pretty tight to the center in general but the east side is where things like severe and training happen. How wide that area can be will depend on the upper level setup (something we can't really even discuss this far out). 

Just replay in your mind previous remnants. They all kind look similar with an asymmetrical shield. NW side is generally tight to the core and the SE side can be tight or very broad. 

Ultimately, we want the center to pretty much run the apps to get hit with synoptic stuff. Otherwise, we just want deep southwesterly flow like what we see with an approaching cold front. If the remnants join forces with an approaching cold front we can get some serious training rains and potential embedded severe. If the center passes close as well we can have a lot of fun in general. East side and close to the center of circ is the best "experience". lol

[North Balti Zen]

Seeding!!

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Seeding!!

LOL...Chuck's really gone off the deep end there.  Totally derailed the thread by about 3 pages.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Exactly where we're likely to end up. 

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LOL...Chuck's really gone off the deep end there.  Totally derailed the thread by about 3 pages.

I'm still laughing.

[WinterWxLuvr]

52 minutes ago, H2O said:

CMC and GFS still have 92L chances.  Now would be the time we need the HP to the north to slide east like it does every goddamn winter storm.

Ain't that the truth.

[MN Transplant]

That is just a brutal lashing on the Euro for CC and the surrounding areas.  Barely moves in 24 hours and it is still feeding off the Gulf to keep it going.

[H2O]

9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Seeding!!

I literally had no idea what this meant until I just read the main thread.  i hadn't until now.  

i only want to know if they are heirloom seeds or sunflower?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

That is just a brutal lashing on the Euro for CC and the surrounding areas.  Barely moves in 24 hours and it is still feeding off the Gulf to keep it going.

Yea that's insane...nearshore water temperatures are near 90 degrees and they're untouched this year so there's plenty of fuel to work with.

 

[MN Transplant]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

An absolutely terrifying run so far.

It has a lower pressure at 96 than it did upon landfall at 48.

[Eskimo Joe]

The barrier islands would be completely inundated with water.  Major property and infrastructure damage.

[snow1]

Anything with possible Irma?