showmethesnow Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Still uncertain on the track of Harvey. All I know is that if the GFS verified we're talking about a historic flooding event in Texas. That is an epic stall. Roughly 5 days of the same areas receiving heavy to torrential rain. Would be truly historic. I don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 I'm out to HR 48 on TT and it takes a left hook into Mexico it seems, just south of the US border ~990mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Really cool review by the NHC re Andrew on the 25th anniversary http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/Andrew_Bio.php http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/Hurricane_Andrew_Bibliography_FINAL.pdf https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2017/08/23/hurricane-andrew-working-in-a-category-5-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro has Harvey make landfall, head back to the Gulf, reintensify, and make another landfall in LA. By 192 it's moving NE in the southeast. Also, Euro has something weak pop and hug the SE coast at the same time before getting kicked OTS once it gets to NC. Kinda interested to see if Harvey's remnants make a close approach in the long range. It does... check out 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 the storm off the east coast srems to be hanging around a bit longer than previous runs. Still a way to go before we get clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Houston Hobby 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Man, that's scary. Biblical-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 As expected, good bit of spread on the EPS with the remnants of the storm that erases Houston but track up through the TN valley is supported. Which would be interesting around here. If the remnants can get absorbed into any kind of ML trough or front, we would be on the fun side. I guess this whole thing finally has my attention. Not the cat 5 up the bay I'm waiting for but spinny things and dam bursting training rain possibilities seems worth investing time in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Disaster declarations made in TX Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 33 minutes ago, mappy said: Disaster declarations made in TX Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk <yoda>We toss</yoda> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: <yoda>We toss</yoda> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Canadian Gone Wild Ugh lol..at least its fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 144 is better @WxWatcher007 Right up the bay we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 65-70 kts at 850mb at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Still time for this to trend stronger and to the west. Right Front Quadrant or bust (yes, I know its at 850mb, but still) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Why is it unlikely? (0z CMC). You can see the ULL blocked by high pressure. It is a more tame version of the Sandy setup. I will call it Sandy August Edition for now. If you are wondering, the GFS attempts to bring the system (92L) into the coast but the timing of H5 features varies slightly and Harvey forces the ULL east. What happens with Harvey will be key, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 UKIE says no, sorry... what drugs are you on tonight GGEM? UKIE barely does anything with the SLP lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: UKIE says no, sorry... what drugs are you on tonight GGEM? UKIE barely does anything with the SLP lol A simple comparison between 12z and 0z would yield valuable analysis. You can see the H5 features trending west on the UKmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Small hat tip to the CMC on the Euro. Waiting for the rest of the run to finish. It appears Harvey acts as a kicker altho I am wondering if the Euro is too conservative with homebrew. Should continue evolving in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Looks like the GFS is up to it's old tricks again. The 06Z now shows a Cat 4 (940mb) striking southern Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 3 hours ago, Vice-Regent said: Small hat tip to the CMC on the Euro. Waiting for the rest of the run to finish. It appears Harvey acts as a kicker altho I am wondering if the Euro is too conservative with homebrew. Should continue evolving in future runs. Euro was closer this run Maybe the CMC isn't lost after all. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looks like the GFS is up to it's old tricks again. The 06Z now shows a Cat 4 (940mb) striking southern Texas. With the stall..this would be a very significant disaster for that part of the country... the 6z was pretty scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 If I had $1 for every time the CMC showed a Chessie Bay crusher I'd have more money than the clown that just won Powerball. Only reason why the CMC does what it does is it thinks the trough will stay far enough west and pops a quick ridge well off the east in the Atl that the homebrew is forced NNW between the two. It seems that the GFS wants to stall Harvey longer cause it wants to keep pushing it into the WC ridge instead of the euro idea of eventually getting caught in the EC trough and dragged up. Euro seems more believable IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 CMC OR BUST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, mappy said: CMC OR BUST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 we need some exciting weather around here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On a more serious note: Aircraft Recon just found center fix of 985mb for Harvey. NHC advisory at 5am had it at 995mb. methinks Harvey goes BOOM today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Just now, mappy said: On a more serious note: Aircraft Recon just found center fix of 985mb for Harvey. NHC advisory at 5am had it at 995mb. methinks Harvey goes BOOM today If it isn't a cane at the 2pm advisory today, I'd be really surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: If it isn't a cane at the 2pm advisory today, I'd be really surprised. NHC seems to be not as gung ho on that happening. Doesn't have it reaching hurricane status for 24hrs. However, their 5am discussion did mention that RI was possible, but for now would keep with their lower consensus to maintain continuity from previous discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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