yoda Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, mattie g said: Still tossing? Tossed that run (12z EURO run on Monday) specifically... not the model itself or any new runs after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 12z GFS Harvey makes landfall near CC around 84 hrs... stalls and sits around in SE TX... then reappears in the GOM at 162 near HOU... then moves back NE into W LA and slowly moves NE before dissipating. Irma develops around Day 6... but besides brushing the East Coast with huge waves, it curves out to sea harmlessly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie likes north of Gfs latest run 12z CMC is prob 6 hrs slower and slightly farther south in its landfall than the 12z GFS is at 84 hrs. 12z CMC also pulls the SE trick that the 12z GFS does, but gets Harvey back over water at 150 and 156 before making landfall again in C LA at 162 with NO in the eastern quad... remnants then move NE and are in S IL/W KY at 192 and Harvey kind of dies out around there. 12z CMC doesn't do much, if there is anything at all this run, with the Bahamas tropical wave... no real great SLP development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie likes north of Gfs latest run Looks like landfall near HOU... then slowly meanders NE to 144 (in N LA) at the end of the run Also looks like maybe a TD at 144 if that SLP projection is right just off the East coast of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Eoro has a 1000mb low making landfall in s TX. Yesterday's stronger trend appears to have reversed. Looks like it stays a strung out mess until just before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, Amped said: Eoro has a 1000mb low making landfall in s TX. Yesterday's stronger trend appears to have reversed. Looks like it stays a strung out mess until just before landfall. It's about 10mb difference between yesterday's 12z and today's. Nothing in it, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 EURO teases us with Irma at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Baby steps. Don't worry, I'll let myself out. Brushes the OB at 186-192 and then slowly moves out to sea Maybe remnants of Harvey at 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Legit rainfall threat this run of the EURO. We should expect wonky runs over the next day or so until the center of circulation is better defined through recon fixes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 parts of texas could see 17 inches of rain by this time next week if the euro were to play out as advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 2 hours ago, mappy said: parts of texas could see 17 inches of rain by this time next week if the euro were to play out as advertised. The Nationals have a series there in Houston beginning tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 18Z GFS now looks more realistic on strength then some of its previous runs. Now has a 990mb Cane striking Texas, stalling and then retrograding back into the northern gulf. GFS and the CMC are now in fairly good agreement on the initial strike and the retrograde but the CMC is quicker on drawing it northward once it gets back into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 18z GFS continues to back off on intensity. Only reason I can see for it is a slightly weaker initial disturbance with slightly less moisture on the south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Will the cold front moving through the Mideast now have any effect on the system or will it be long gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 2 hours ago, BTRWx said: The Nationals have a series there in Houston beginning tonight. Roof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 52 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I think I saw lollies of 30- 40" on the latest Gfs for Parts of coastal Texas on Wxbell. ...yea..yikes if that verified That happened in Houston a few (lol) years back. Allison? You guys who know chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not good with wx history, but I think Allison was a TS that got its name retired. Killed dozens and did billions in damage. Really bad event for Houston. Sounds like Eskimo Joe's kind of gal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: Sounds like Eskimo Joe's kind of gal. Indeed. I'm very excited about tracking Harvey. This will be a top 5 rainfall event for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Lets keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest 0z Harvey tracks. Not looking good for the Texas coast, tightly clustered. There are going to be some prolific rainfall amounts especially if it stalls and loops back out into the gulf after making landfall like some of the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 41 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: That's the 18z..finally got 0z to post. Agree about Texas .Some of the hourly Stamps on a few models are at 144 to 168 and still hanging around the Texas coast. Much more spread on the 00z, most if not just about all are still in Texas it is just a matter of where in Texas. Have to see what the next run looks like to see if they begin to tighten up a bit again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 28 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Much more spread on the 00z, most if not just about all are still in Texas it is just a matter of where in Texas. Have to see what the next run looks like to see if they begin to tighten up a bit again. They'll "waffle" and open/close the spread for the next 24-30 hours. The consensus is Texas and it makes sense given the steering flow and book end highs over Florida and the Four Corners region. The track you're seeing today is pretty amazing considering we are several days away from landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 I think even if it doesn't become anything major, going to be a lot of rain for those gulf coast states. Doesn't help that New Orleans is having major issues with their floodway controls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 23, 2017 Author Share Posted August 23, 2017 Harvey's rebirth. 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231448 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 ...HARVEY REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 92.5W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 12z GFS is bonkers on rainfall...over 20 inches near Houston. Big implications to US gasoline and airline ticket prices if true as many major pipelines pass through Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 12z CMC ftw TS please lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Seriously considering a chase for Harvey. This could be a once-in-a-lifetime event for portions of the US and could eclipse Allison in 2000 for Houston. GFS OP max is 48", ENS mean is 12" - 25" of rain in the same area. There could be national impacts on US gasoline prices and airline ticket prices as many of the major trans-mix, jetfuel and gasoline pipelines pass through or originate in Houston and then travel across eastern Texas. This is the kind of setup that really gets my heart going. Oh to be a fly on the wall at HGX and CRP WFO right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Seriously considering a chase for Harvey. This could be a once-in-a-lifetime event for portions of the US and could eclipse Allison in 2000 for Houston. GFS OP max is 48", ENS mean is 12" - 25" of rain in the same area. There could be national impacts on US gasoline prices and airline ticket prices as many of the major trans-mix, jetfuel and gasoline pipelines pass through or originate in Houston and then travel across eastern Texas. This is the kind of setup that really gets my heart going. Oh to be a fly on the wall at HGX and CRP WFO right now. I am honestly as nervous and excited as if it was going to affect my area. But considering what the scope of this could be and the impacts it could have nationally I think every weather enthusiast/meteorologist is feeling the same way regardless of where they live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 UKMET with a near hurricane (985mb) at landfall...HWRF is stupid silly strong but that's the HWRF for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 So far it looks like the 12z EURO OP is setting itself up for a big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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