Jason WX Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Ok, now that the eclipse is over...holy $;@! Euro. Catastrophic flooding across TX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Ok, now that the eclipse is over...holy $;@! Euro. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Ok, now that the eclipse is over...holy $;@! Euro. more like lol... that track/path is impossible... we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Link? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017082112&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 12z EURO is So... you are telling me EURO that Harvey will be just off the MX coast, about 150 miles SSE of Brownsville TX at 96. Then at 120, Harvey makes landfall around Brownsville TX moving NNW.... then moves NNW to a position in TX at 144. Then Harvey says I hate TX and moves SE to a position back into the GOM at 168... then turns back NE at 192 and makes landfall in SW LA at 204 and moves NE toward the MS/LA border at 216, and then is in SW VA at 240 Uh no, we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 12z CMC doesn't have enough precip of the NW side. Track is perfect and that block is gorgeous. Worry about QPF later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 The black marker is the path that the 12z EURO wants Harvey to take from Day 3 on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Rainfall totals from 12z EURO: https://twitter.com/ChrisDeVitoWX/status/899714039508598784 Man if that happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 If the EURO were to be there (near SW VA) at 240, a decent tor/flood threat would follow up here... but I just can't buy this run. If there is a good amount of EPS support, then maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: GFS has Harvey over the GOM longer and has a further east landfall on Friday in Texas. Up by Corpus Christi... thats going to be quite a quick NW turn though once it gets into the BoC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Seems more reasonable than the Euro's SE dip. Man, the BOC is magic for tropical. Texas better be on guard if the north trend continues. Made a quick edit of my post above yours... should have said NW turn and its CC, not Houston for poss landfall on the 18z GFS run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 lol I think thats another tropical system trying to get going just off the east coast of FL at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yep, close to the coast but stays offshore, just as Harvey's remnants start moving NE. not much left of Harvey when it gets here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 20 minutes ago, yoda said: not much left of Harvey when it gets here though GFS looks better with 92L. Looks like the cmc but further offshore but more west and better organized than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 it is interesting that for all of the talk about a train of waves coming off the coast of Africa the NHC has nothing developing after 93L for the forseeable future. The SAL layer looks as of now to be well entrenched for late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 58 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: There's definitely a good handful or so Eps members that bring a strong low just off the Va/ Md coasline between day 6-8 ish. Are you sure? I don't see many at all... maybe 3-4 at Day 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Models having a hard time with the remnants of Harvey. Large trend north on the GFS and guessing from satellite pics a a center maybe trying to form well north of where the 18z GFS had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, Jason WX said: Will be a fish... though hopefully it will give us something to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Want a good laugh check out the NAM on Harvey. Given the north trend it's not quite as laughable as the NAM usually is.. This is always a concern for the Texas coast, a quick developing storm that models don't pickup until a few days out like Hurricane Bret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, Amped said: Want a good laugh check out the NAM on Harvey. Given the north trend it's not quite as laughable as the NAM usually is.. This is always a concern for the Texas coast, a quick developing storm that models don't pickup until a few days out like Hurricane Bret. Almost looks Houston bound... SE TX or maybe extreme western LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Wow hr 96 of the 00z gfs. Landfall near Port Lavaca, TX @ 950mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanBarg Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 I was all aboard the Euro express into Central Texas... but he hill country WNW to S of Austin cant take a foot of precip especially if we get saturated Wed-Fri prior to Harvey. Deadly flooding will occur if those advertised Euro totals come to fruition. As much as I want rain I now hope this Euro trend backs off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 5 hours ago, SeanBarg said: I was all aboard the Euro express into Central Texas... but he hill country WNW to S of Austin cant take a foot of precip especially if we get saturated Wed-Fri prior to Harvey. Deadly flooding will occur if those advertised Euro totals come to fruition. As much as I want rain I now hope this Euro trend backs off a bit. I totally agree with you, but don't let Eskimo Joe read this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 Euro with a landfall 18z Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 23 minutes ago, mappy said: Euro with a landfall 18z Fri And the Euro actually landfalls again early Tuesday in SW LA after a loop back off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro still in the south Texas landfall camp on Friday. It stalls there too. It's time to declare Harvey the first bona fide threat to the US mainland of the season. Let's wait until it clears Mexico before freaking out. The remnants need to get over water quickly, before any nascent circulation gets torn up. At least that part of the country isn't too hilly so if it moves quick enough it might come out okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 06z HWRF slams Texas...would be a major hurricane. I know folks are quick on social media to share images, but when you're playing around with potential landfall hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, caution is always warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Nowhere in my post was I freaking out or telling others to freak out. Harvey has a long long way to go but the fact that there's unanimous agreement on a Texas landfall and some guidance showing epic rain potential inside 5 days means that people do have to take notice. Wasn't mentioning you specifically, that highlighted text was a general comment. Already the crap weather posters on SM are flying the hype flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 21 hours ago, yoda said: 12z EURO is So... you are telling me EURO that Harvey will be just off the MX coast, about 150 miles SSE of Brownsville TX at 96. Then at 120, Harvey makes landfall around Brownsville TX moving NNW.... then moves NNW to a position in TX at 144. Then Harvey says I hate TX and moves SE to a position back into the GOM at 168... then turns back NE at 192 and makes landfall in SW LA at 204 and moves NE toward the MS/LA border at 216, and then is in SW VA at 240 Uh no, we toss Still tossing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.