MillvilleWx Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 11:45 AM, mappy said: NHC seems to be not as gung ho on that happening. Doesn't have it reaching hurricane status for 24hrs. However, their 5am discussion did mention that RI was possible, but for now would keep with their lower consensus to maintain continuity from previous discussion. Expand Oh. I absolutely agree on the maintaining continuity. That is a must in the world of forecasting, if possible, or anything of this nature. I was just saying the ingredients are coming together really well right now and I'd be surprised if late morning recon doesn't start seeing something very close to, if not at minimum hurricane intensity. Even if it isn't there yet, man on man tonight through tomorrow is going to be something else. The perfect RI scenario is setting up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Like WW007 said, only thing that kills Harvey now, is Harvey. Hopefully the people from Corpus Christie to Houston are making preparations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 11:52 AM, mappy said: Like WW007 said, only thing that kills Harvey now, is Harvey. Hopefully the people from Corpus Christie to Houston are making preparations. Expand Yeah. No kidding. Corpus NWS already boarding up according to someone there who posted on Twitter. We've got evacs for some of my forecast sites into Southern Texas now. Told them they need to get out now. No time to mess with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Gulf water is still toasty. Its got the fuel to deepen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 This has an Andrew type feel with a quick bomb right before hitting. not saying it will go CAT 5 at all but any sort of RI prior to landfall will make the effects that much worse since it is then forecast to stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 7am update Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 700 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS HARVEY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 93.0W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 11:59 AM, H2O said: This has an Andrew type feel with a quick bomb right before hitting. not saying it will go CAT 5 at all but any sort of RI prior to landfall will make the effects that much worse since it is then forecast to stall. Expand Andrew was a buzzsaw for quite a while though. The scary RI scenario is probably Charley, except bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 am I subforum snob to only want to talk about Harvey here instead of the main page thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 12:41 PM, mappy said: am I subforum snob to only want to talk about Harvey here instead of the main page thread? Expand I would definitely feel more comfortable commenting here, although I read the tropical thread. Then again, some of the posts in that thread should make me feel confident about posting there... I mean, I am not sure I can match the value in this: Quote Im currently in Greece on vacation so tracking this from afar. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 ha, I saw that. then closed the thread. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Quote I'm currently on the toilet, prunes are a marvel, this thing looks great on IR, people need to get out now!!! Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Oh my back on topic: recon heading back towards center fix now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 From recon: Quote URNT12 KNHC 241152 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092017 A. 24/11:25:20Z B. 23 deg 43 min N 092 deg 58 min W C. 850 mb 1306 m D. 51 kt E. 292 deg 14 nm F. 013 deg 54 kt G. 290 deg 20 nm H. 986 mb I. 17 C / 1525 m J. 21 C / 1526 m K. 19 C / NA L. OPEN NW M. C24 N. 12345 / 08 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF309 1209A HARVEY OB 06 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 62 KT (71mph) 122 / 9 NM 11:29:00Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 325 / 3 KT ; Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 12:34 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Any early thoughts on 92L? Expand I have barely looked at the situation, but my thought would be that a landfalling mid-atlantic system is such a unique climatological occurrence that the chances are usually fairly well known in advance because the large-scale setup has to be pretty specific. The fact that it is the CMC on an island gives me little faith in that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 It is going to be so fun to track tropical with the new GOES imagery http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-13-6-1 (link is to the 6 frame loop so it doesn't kill your connection, the 96 frame one is excellent) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Latest microwave imagery suggests Harvey has a closed eye. Recon going back in for another pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 984.1 on that center pass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 It's a thing of beauty to watch Harvey on GOES 16. Like watching the super bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 12:41 PM, mappy said: am I subforum snob to only want to talk about Harvey here instead of the main page thread? Expand discussion here is dece but yall lack heavy hitters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 1:49 PM, cmasty1978 said: discussion here is dece but yall lack heavy hitters Expand feel free to stick around and help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 2:00 PM, WxWatcher007 said: LOL. Ok dude. Expand it's not a bad thing. i too am an engaged hobbyist. but having some real deal, red meat tropical posters would be the logical next step for making this discussion better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 2:00 PM, WxWatcher007 said: LOL. Ok dude. Expand he's trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 2:09 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, I know. I'll refrain from clapping back. Expand Kush is good people. You just have to know when he's trolling for lols, and when he is being serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 2:10 PM, mappy said: Kush is good people. You just have to know when he's trolling for lols, and when he is being serious. Expand i am not trolling. if you let me finish without ascribing trollish intent to my posts i would have told you my forecast: this is going to go cat 4 during the diurnal medium due to the mexican mtns. book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 2:20 PM, cmasty1978 said: i am not trolling. if you let me finish without ascribing trollish intent to my posts i would have told you my forecast: this is going to go cat 4 during the diurnal medium due to the mexican mtns. book it. Expand well played, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 2:02 PM, cmasty1978 said: it's not a bad thing. i too am an engaged hobbyist. but having some real deal, red meat tropical posters would be the logical next step for making this discussion better. Expand When the red meat joins the first thing I'm going to ask is how much for Rockville. That's the burning question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 982.8 on that pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 On 8/24/2017 at 2:28 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Mappy, I take my tropical seriously. I live in a place that's about as bad as San Diego for tropical. I lose all ability to function as a regular human when something pops even though I know it will inevitably pass on me like Sandra Davis at my high school prom. DON'T FAULT ME FOR BEING ON EDGE. 3-5' of rain and 6-8 TORs or bust. Expand GEFS and EPS favor a remnant track up the TN valley. The tricky part is how it gets there. If the storm re-renters the gulf and makes a second landfall in the LA area then it could actually bring decent to significant impacts to our region. If it stays over land and wallows around before heading north then things would be much more tame. You know which scenario I'm rooting for...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 I'm still holding onto hope for the magical storm up the bay solution on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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