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June Obs/Disco Thread


George BM

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm rooting for the 6Z gfs for temps...has a backdoor cool front pushing in Wed / Thurs.  

Backdoor cold fronts only work if they're accompanied with yuge supercells.  Sometimes they can yields great boomers because the anvil level winds are from the WSW which keep big anvil shadows from developing and cutting the surface CAPE down.

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^I'd tend to side with LWX in this case.  If you look at the 500 maps on the GFS, we get a pretty decent ridge developing as the 591 dm height contour straddles the Potomac River this weekend....there's defeinitely a push of marine air during the middle of next week, but the corresponding height falls aren't that impressive as we never get below a 588 dm ridge.

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2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^I'd tend to side with LWX in this case.  If you look at the 500 maps on the GFS, we get a pretty decent ridge developing as the 591 dm height contour straddles the Potomac River this weekend....there's defeinitely a push of marine air during the middle of next week, but the corresponding height falls aren't that impressive as we never get below a 588 dm ridge.

LR GFS sucks... YUGE ridge out west and trough in the east... but end of the run has some giggles with a tropical system in the GOM and in the SE US as the run ends

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, that's probably going to be the case for most of the summer.  A few periods of hot, but overall cooler than usual. 

I edited my post to add looks like there is a TS in the central GOM as the run comes to a close and makes landfall and slowly moves N

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12z GFS has the following highs next week for DCA:

Sun - low to mid 90s

Mon - around 90 to low 90s

Tuesday - low to mid 90s

Wed - around 90 (but mid 90s just SW... DC is 90/75 at 18z... ugly)

Thurs - mid 90s

Fri - low to mid 90s

Sat -- back to low 80s

 

h5 looks awkward in LR... ridge to trough to ridge as you go west to east across teh US... for giggles, 12z GFS at 18z on WED June 14th has SBCAPE/MUCAPE at 5000 :lmao:

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My big multi family annual camping trip is next thurs-mon near Luray. I have mixed feelings. It doesn't look that hot so that is good but the reason for that is rain so there's a tradeoff. 

None of us mind rain too much because we have good gear but mutiple days of lots of rain would kinda suck. It's a chips fall situation either way. Not liking guidance trends though. 

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